The ISIS Gambit

XXI

“Costas, what do you make of what’s going on in Turkey?” Admiral Nic ‘Chief’ Spanos, asked his intelligence chief, Major General Alex Costas. Tradition held that Greece’s top military officer came from the Navy and, while Spanos had a keen grasp of naval strategy, the concept of asymmetrical warfare was relatively new to him. General Costas, on the other hand, had actually spent some time with the US Special Operations Command.

“Chief, I don’t think anyone knows for sure. Their military, and especially their Air Force, is heavily engaged in northern Iraq fighting the Kurds. In addition, their army is engaged in northern Syria with ISIS and, though I’m sure they’d deny it, some pro-Assad forces as well. Now that the US has taken the Russians out of the picture in Syria, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Turks clear out the Kurds once and for all — there’s really no one to stop them. If President Demirel has any regional hegemonic designs, now would be the time for him to unleash them,” the general replied.

“But what about the two terrorist incidents in just the past couple days, the bombing of Turkey’s air force general staff and the attack at Incirlik?” Spanos asked. “Surely you don’t believe that to be the work of the Kurds? That’s more of an ISIS thing?”

“No one believes it’s the Kurds,” the intel chief replied. “I think it’s pretty much believed throughout the intelligence community that ISIS is behind both, though there is no hard evidence of this, and they haven’t taken responsibility for either of them — which is odd in itself. I think the Turks are actually using this as an excuse to expand their operations against the Kurds. The obvious question regarding the two terrorist incidents you mention is that if it’s not ISIS, then who? The list of suspects is pretty short.”

“So, what are we to make those two incidents, and what of the Kurds? Do the Turks have any regional ambitions or are they simply taking this opportunity to take care of the ‘Kurdish question’ once and for all?” the admiral replied.

“Two very good questions,” Costas remarked. “Personally, I think the Turks see ISIS as an ‘Al Qaeda wanna be’ and something they can focus on later as the US is directly involved with them right now. The Kurds, on the other hand, pose the immediate threat — and opportunity. Remember, over the years, the Kurds have staged some deadly terrorist attacks of their own in eastern Turkey. It would not surprise me to see the Turks try and take the Kurdish regions of both northern Syria and Iraq. Not only to end the Kurdish question but also to gain access to the oil fields in northern Iraq. Historically, other countries have used considerably less in pursuit of their own territorial expansion.”

“True enough, and if that’s the case, there’s only two places they can be pulling their troops from,” Spanos replied.

“That’s right — western Turkey and Cyprus. They’ve gradually removed most of their troops from Cyprus and moved most of the rest of their forces eastward to protect against ISIS and actually engage the Kurds in both northern Iraq and Syria. However, let’s not forget, the Turkish army is second only in size to the US in NATO — if they have ambitions in either, or both for that matter, Syria or Iraq, there is little to stop them militarily.”

“Have they taken notice of our build up on Cyprus?”

“So far, it has gone relatively unnoticed. Personally, I think the Turks have their hands full with both ISIS and the Kurds,” the intelligence chief replied. “We’ve substantially reinforced our position there while the Turks have seriously reduced their forces on the island. Quite obviously, the Turks do not see us as a threat.”

“That’s certainly a good thing. However, what do you think of ISIS and the threat they pose? I want to get back to these two attacks. You indicated they see them as an ‘Al Qaeda wanna be’—how do you see them?”

“Admiral, they are becoming more and more capable, quite obviously. The implications of the bombing alone are a little unsettling: Not only did they have to know of the meeting of the Air Force leadership, they had to know exactly where, and when, this meeting was taking place. How did they get on base and how did they get past the base security? Where did they get all of explosives needed for this attack? This wasn’t a lucky strike. Whoever did this knew what they were doing and who they were targeting. I think the Turks are seriously underestimating ISIS.”

“So if ISIS had some inside help with this, how serious of a threat do you see them?”

“Think about it. This wasn’t your typical terrorist bombing,” the intel chief replied. “We’ve seen plenty of those over the years all over the world. I wouldn’t even call this a ‘terrorist’ attack. A terrorist attack is generally targeted to inflict terror, usually against civilians or a local populace. This was targeted at a military site, against the Turkish military — air force — leadership. No, this wasn’t a terrorist attack. This was an assassination. This has all the hallmarks of a military first strike more than it does anything else.”

“First strike?” Spanos asked with more than a little alarm. “So what’s next then?”

“I have no idea, but think about it: If we were to take out Turkey’s Air Force leadership, what would we do next?”

Admiral Spanos’ face immediately paled as Costas realized that the admiral had not thought of the attack at Eskisehir in quite this manner. “Okay, raise the alert level for our forces on Cyprus, Crete and Rhodes — I don’t know what to expect but I don’t want any surprises.”

“Lion, glad you could make it,” Jackson called out as he saw his friend enter the restaurant.

“Chaos, glad to see you, too. It’s been too long. Who’s your friend here?” Lion added.

“Dani, this is Sergeant Richard ‘Lion’ Morgan. Lion, Colonel Danielle Yaniv, with the IDF. Dani’s a friend of mine who I’ve been working with for the past couple of months.”

“Colonel, nice to meet you. Since you’re hanging around this guy,” Lion began, “I’m going to assume that your role with the IDF is more than a little understated.”

“Call me Dani, and, yeah, the IDF tag works.”

“Thought so. What’s the food like here?”

“Not sure, Colonel Cadonau recommended this place. He said the Izgara Kofte is very good. We’ve already ordered….” Jackson was saying as the waitress interrupted him with three plates, two of the Kofte and one plate of Manti.

“Oooh, this smells wonderful,” Dani added as the waitress served the lunch.

“That it does,” agreed Lion. “Hey, wait a minute.” Lion adding pausing for a brief bit, looking at Stonewall rather quizzically, “You two have been working together for the past ‘couple of months’? If I remember correctly, Iran’s always been your interest. Just how much of that stuff that went down with Iran a couple months ago were you involved in?”

“We were kind of in it up to our eyeballs,” Stonewall replied.

“We? You mean the Israelis helped you out?”

“We really couldn’t have done part of it without them. Dani’s team and one of our teams combined to wreak some havoc in Iran. We got a little banged up but we got the job done.”

“I’ll say you did. Ali Bagheri’s taking over in Iran was a real coup. I don’t know how you guys managed that but I’m impressed.”

“We had some help from our friends, and like I said, we couldn’t have done all of what we did without them. Speaking of friends, what’s the word on the street regarding Turkey? ISIS is right across the border from Turkey and the Turks are doing everything they can to contain them but there’s only so much they can do. After all, ISIS’s more of a movement than the typical nation/state confrontations.”

“Turkey’s not the solid homogeneous state that everyone thinks it is. They have a huge Kurdish problem in the eastern part of the country, but you already know that. Then, like you mentioned, they have ISIS literally a stone’s throw away in much of the southern part of the country. They nearly avoided a catastrophe in Kobani quite recently. Kobani’s right on the border and halfway between Batman and Adana. You know as well as I do that even though ISIS didn’t make any military inroads across the border there, they sure did in the hearts and minds of many Turks. Think about it. ISIS’s recruiting efforts in Europe and even the States has been quite effective. Hardly a day goes by that you don’t hear of someone in the US that’s joined them, let alone an ISIS related incident somewhere in Europe. If that’s the case over there and in Europe, how effective do you think they’ve been in Turkey? The Kurdish problem isn’t the only problem the Turks have in the southeast. Mosul’s only about a hundred kilometers from the border and this is ISIS’s largest, and possibly, greatest conquest to date.”

“When you put it that way,” Dani observed, “it would appear to be more of a question of when something’s going to happen, not if.”

“That’s right,” Lion continued, “something’s going to happen. I can feel it. Everything might seem relatively normal up at Istanbul, Izmir or even Ankara but these places are all in Western or west-central Turkey. I just don’t know when, or what, it might be. But I’m sure of it, something’s in the wind. I know you’re here at Incirlik, in the friendly confines of a NATO/US air base, but don’t get too comfortable with everything there, as yesterday’s little incident implies.”

“We’re only here for a few days, doing some ground work for Jim. We should be back in Tel Aviv very soon,” Jackson relayed.

“I don’t mean to imply something is imminent, but I’m quite certain something’s going to happen. We’ve seen demonstrations and protests here in Adana and more so throughout eastern Turkey. They haven’t really taken hold in the western part of the country yet. There’ve been a few in Ankara and, of course, a couple over at Izmir where they feel they can probably get more international attention with the US base there as well. Word on the street is that these aren’t the spontaneous demonstrations they are made out to be. Someone’s organizing these things. Whoever it is, they aren’t leaving any fingerprints, but it’s a pretty short list of suspects — it’s either ISIS or the Kurds, and since these demonstrations are spreading westward, I think it’s a pretty safe bet that ISIS’s behind them. I mean, if you’re demonstrating for the Kurds, why would you hold one in Adana of all places?”

“What about the bombing up at Eskisehir? That’s not a random attack,” Dani added.

“No, it’s not, and that’s what I mean: Someone appears to be orchestrating some type of activity against Turkey. It’s subtle and I’m guessing the Demirel administration hasn’t picked up on it yet — especially with Ataturk taken out of the picture. If anyone was going to pick up on this, he would have. You see, up at Eskisehir, you have a military attack, not a terrorist attack. The one here at Incirlik bears all the traits of a rather poorly disciplined unit where some of its members saw a target of opportunity and rather than wait for orders from their superiors, took matters into their own hands. Had these three dirt bags waited even a couple hours, they probably could have achieved their intended results. So, with the growing unrest in key strategic areas and the attack at Eskisehir, something’s goin’ on.”

“Do you think there’s an ISIS cell on base?” Jackson asked.

“No question about it. If this attack was only carried out by one individual, I’d have my doubts. But three of them? And literally, on a moment’s notice? No, my suspicion is that you’ve got a major security problem on base here.”

“Yeah, we haven’t talked about that but I think that’s our suspicion as well,” Dani agreed.

“Anything else? What about the Greeks?” Jackson asked. “Are they getting a little nervous with their neighbor to the east?”

“Can’t tell you about anything up in Thrace — I’ve never been up there. However, things on Cyprus are looking interesting. You see, the Turks have transferred a lot of their troops off of the island. They need them in Syria and their fight against the Kurds in Iraq. The Greeks don’t pose a threat, so might as well move the troops where the action’s at, right? However, the Greeks have been silently increasing their forces on the island. Historically, they’ve had roughly a battalion on pretty much garrison duty. It’s almost like a vacation for these guys. Over the past year, though, they’ve gradually increased their strength. I’d guess they are probably up to two reinforced brigades at this point and could easily overrun the depleted Turkish forces now on the island.”

“That’s quite an increase. What are they thinking? Especially about ISIS?”

“They’re nervous. Not for any threat to themselves but they are nervous about what’s going on in Turkey. If the unimaginable happens in Turkey, they’d have the caliphate on their border in Thrace and a foothold in Cyprus.”

“There’s no thought about Turkey falling is there?” Dani asked.

“No, but like I said, they are nervous. This was an excellent lunch, Stonewall. We need to do this more often. I apologize but I cannot stay. The Greeks are not the only nervous ones in the region. My CO fully understands your concerns. Since it’s a rather short flight, breaking away for a quick lunch was okay with him but I need to get back.”

“Not a problem, Lion. I appreciate all of your help. Plus, now that I’m stationed in Tel Aviv for the foreseeable future, I think we can make that happen.”