A Problem with Math

06 July 2041
Tel Aviv, Israel
Third Army Division HQ

Colonel Joshua Richter had been General Gardner’s aide decamp since the start of the war in the Middle East; he had served with the general on and off throughout his career as an infantry officer and was being groomed to one day become a division commander. Richter caught his boss’ attention to give him an update. “General Gardner, the Secretary of Defense’s aircraft just landed, he’ll be here in about 30 minutes,” Richter said.

The Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs were on their way to Tel Aviv, along with the SACEUR. The goal of this meeting was to discuss the occupation and the next strategy for defeating the Russians. Third Army now had 560,000 extremely battle-hardened soldiers, desperately needed in Europe. The Israeli Defense Force had also grown significantly, reaching 800,000 soldiers. The question now was where to redeploy the Third Army-how many soldiers from the IDF could they get to help assist in Europe or Asia?

“Excellent. Let’s go join General Wade in the conference room while we wait,” Gardner said, leading the way. Colonel Richter went with the general wherever he went, ready to take notes and issue orders for the general.

As the two officers walked in to the conference room, they saw General Wade in a heated discussion with one of his officers. “Sorry gentlemen… would you like us to come back?” asked General Gardner as he slowly came into the room.

They immediately stopped talking, and there was a moment of awkward silence. “No that’s ok. We were just talking about strategy and what to do in Europe to stop the Russians,” said General Wade.

“What’s the issue? Perhaps we can help you out before the VIPs show up,” said Gardner.

“I’m sure you’ve seen our read-ahead. The issue we are facing is one of numbers. The Russians have such a huge advantage in armor, light drone tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. I’m not even sure your additional armor is going to make much of a dent in it.” General Wade looked like he had been beaten down by the war in Europe.

General Gardner walked over to the center of the table and activated the holographic map. He pulled up the pre-brief slides from SACEUR and began to study the map and the enemy unit strengths. He squinted a little as he concentrated, looking for weaknesses in their lines. Just then, the Secretary of Defense, Eric Clarke, and General Branson, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, arrived and walked into the room with their aides and staff in tow.

General Branson walked towards the other two generals and held out his hand to shake theirs, saying, “Generals, it’s sincerely good to see you both. I am so happy we were able to arrange a meeting where we could have our primary battlefield commanders discuss strategy directly with us as opposed to through these holographic images.”

“I couldn’t agree with you more,” General Gardner replied, shaking the Joint Chief’s hand. The two Generals had worked together a number of times in the past, and though they were both infantry officers, General Gardner had pursued a career that led him to spend more time as a field commander and less time as a politician.

Eric Clarke, the SecDef, walked over and joined in the conversation, “It’s good to see you both as well. I’m glad to see that you all have made it. I know it’s been a rough war, and you all are busy and exhausted.”

“That it has been. Speaking of making it, I don’t know if you heard that we did officially determine that it was poison that killed my predecessor days before the invasion,” General Wade responded as he moved to his seat at the table.

Eric didn’t look surprised. “We thought so. In any case, I’m glad you have been able to take over smoothly. You have done a marvelous job trying to herd all of the cats and dogs that make up NATO and still manage to keep the Russians from gobbling all of Europe up,” the SecDef said with genuine gratitude. Clarke was liked by a lot of people in the military. Though he had never served himself, he really listened to his military commanders and deferred to them when it came down to significant military strategy, weapons, personnel and the needs required to win the war. He was not a micromanager like a lot of the previous SecDefs had been.

After some coffee, tea and other refreshments were brought in, the group of military leaders sat down at the conference table and began to get down to business.

The SecDef opened the conversation by saying, “Generals, the President is incredibly pleased with everyone and the results we have achieved thus far. That said, the war is far from over… we may be entering a more dangerous period than what we just left. The Islamic Republic has surrendered, and for that, we are eternally gratefully for your efforts in driving home this victory, General Gardner. I know the President and I have not always agreed with your methods, but we cannot dispute the results you have achieved.”

“As we look to transition, there are several things that need to take place. Right now, I need you to reassign 250,000 of your men for occupation duty. They do not all need to be combat troops, but they need to be able to perform the full range of occupation duties as needed and ensure we do not have a problem later on. I’ll leave you to figure out the composition of those forces. Next, I’ll need you to also leave behind an additional 35,000 soldiers here in Israel. They will essentially be your Quick Reaction Force (QRF) for the occupation and help secure Israel and assist with the reconstruction efforts that I am sure are already underway now that the war is officially over.”

Clarke looked at the rest of the generals in the room and then at General Gardner before he continued. “You had your meeting with the IDF a few hours ago; I won’t get a chance to meet with them until later today. How did your meeting go?” The SecDef was curious to know what he might be walking in to.

“The meeting went great; they have agreed to participate in the greater war against both the Russians and the Chinese. When I asked for a troop commitment, they said they could lend 250,000 soldiers, mostly combat arms. They are committing 90,000 soldiers to the occupation. About 210,000 will stay on active duty, and the rest will be placed back in a reserve status so they can begin to rebuild their country. They are currently working out the details on how to move nearly 2,800,000 civilians back to Israel from Southern Europe and the US.” General Gardner was all smiles since he had essentially gotten exactly the troop numbers the SecDef and the President were looking for.

General Branson was also smiling from ear to ear, excited to hear that Israel would continue to support their US allies in the war against the Russians. “I will speak with the President, but I believe we can use some of our civilian airlift capacity to help the Israelis in relocating their people back to Israel. I know the President is going to sign an agreement tomorrow bringing Israel into the Grain Consortium, which will give them preferential buying power for food stocks. He is also working on an aid package, mostly building materials and such.”

The SecDef replied, “This is all good news General. Now, on to more pressing matters. Europe and Alaska-we’ll discuss Alaska first.”

Changing the holographic map, the battle of Alaska came into focus. “As you can see, the Chinese have pushed our forces back to Cooper Landing. This is our last line of defense around southern Alaska. Fortunately, General Black has turned it into a real meat grinder for the Chinese. To the north, we have the Susitna defense, which thus far is holding out against a massive PLA army.” Eric sighed before continuing. “The PLA have landed a total force of around 330,000 soldiers on the Aleutian Peninsula, with most of them heading to the Susitna defensive line. In the south, they have a total force of around 290,000 soldiers attacking Cooper Landing. Now we expect these numbers to double over the next two months, and then double again by the end of the year. Right now, we are estimating they will have a total force of around 2.3 million soldiers on Alaskan soil by December.”

General Gardner broke into the conversation, adding, “It would almost make more sense for my Army to redeploy back to the US and get ready to go fight the Chinese than it would to move to Europe. If we lose Alaska, then the Yukon, BC, then the other northern states will easily fall. If the Chinese are able to spread themselves out, we could have a thousand-plus mile border or more to have to defend,” he said.

General Branson just nodded, “You are correct. We came to the same conclusion on our flight over here.”

General Wade looked a bit concerned at the thought of losing the Third Army; he had been counting on them. “Am I losing the entire Third Army, or just part of it?” he asked dejectedly.

“You are losing the entire Third Army,” General Branson said, matter of fact. “You are gaining all of Third Army’s air support, along with the Israeli reinforcements. Third Army will have air support via NORTHCOM and General Black’s forces in Alaska.” Branson signaled for Gardner to hold his objections for just a second longer.

“General, we are going to have your entire army rotate back to the US as a whole unit, at least what’s left of it after you detail off the occupation force. You, and portions of your force are going to be conducting victory parades all throughout the country. Following the parades, your army will then be given a full thirty-days of leave before we reconstitute your force in the Pacific Northwest. We are also going to outfit your infantry forces with the new Raptor combat suits and the new Wolverine IFVs. When your forces do enter the war in Alaska, your army will be fielding the newest in military equipment. You are also going to be facing several million Chinese soldiers and we are expecting you to not just defeat them, but drive them back into the sea. Once in place, we will begin a phased withdraw of General Black’s Second Army so his group can go through the same refit.”

General Gardner was going to object, but held his tongue for a minute thinking about the global situation. He took a moment to look at the map before returning back to face General Branson and the SecDef. “I understand the situation is not looking good in Alaska. It is not looking good in Europe either. My entire army could be the difference in defeating the Russians quickly or dragging the war out for a lot longer.”

The SecDef knew Gardner would have objections, but it was his job to make him see the bigger picture. “Gary, the war with Russia is going to have to continue without your army. Your air units will make a tremendous difference, but the situation at home is far more serious. We cannot allow the Chinese to land millions upon millions of soldiers in North America. If they are able to do that, then we are in serious trouble. Your army is the most battle tested army we have right now, and once outfitted with the newest equipment, it will be our most lethal. We are going to leave most of your equipment here with the Israelis while the armored units are moved to Europe. Your entire army will be completely refitted with the newest equipment. We also have the Central and South American Multi-National Force that is starting to complete their training. We are going to slice off half of them to Europe, while the other half will be integrated with your army. This is a huge manpower increase, nearly 550,000 soldiers in addition to the 750,000 US soldiers that your army will be increased to. You will be commanding the largest single American army in its history.”

Very few people ever called General Gardner by his first name, Gary, but the SecDef did so in an attempt to break through the military man’s defense. They needed him on board with this plan, and more importantly, they desperately needed him to help work some sort of miracle and defeat the Chinese, just as he had defeated the IR twice in Israel.

General Gardner knew that ultimately the SecDef was right; he just did not want to leave Europe to the backburner. But if Alaska fell, then the situation back home would get significantly worse. “I understand the situation now. Are things really that bad in Alaska?”

The SecDef held his hand up to stop General Branson from speaking, and looked directly at General Gardner as he replied, “The situation is much worse, General.” He sighed and sat back for a second before continuing, “If the Russians break out of Alaska, we are essentially destroyed in the Pacific Northwest. The President placed all of our eggs in one basket in Alaska-not that he had much of a choice. Right now, if they break out, the entire Yukon, British Columbia, and the rest of the Canadian States are completely open. We have virtually no military forces in those areas that could slow down the Chinese juggernaut. We have roughly 35,000 troops in Washington State, which has no hope of stopping the Chinese.”

General Branson jumped in at this point. “We are graduating 30,000 new troops every week, but they are green-very little in the way of NCO or officer experience. We are forming new divisions as fast as we can, but we can only train so many troops at a time, let alone equip them with modern weapons and equipment. Bringing your army home gives us 360,000 combat-hardened veterans and a backstop in case the Chinese do break through Alaska before your army is ready. You are going to receive an immediate 550,000 troops from the Multi-National Force (or MNF as we call them) and 30,000 new troops a week from training. We want to hold your army back until you reach a troop strength of 1,250,000 soldiers, and then unleash you on the Chinese.”

The SecDef continued, “Intelligence is showing a massive Chinese Task Force heading for the Hawaiian Island. We’ve evacuated the civilian population and left behind a nasty guerrilla force for them to deal with, compliments of the Marines and Special Forces. But we anticipate them securing the port facilities and airport (or what’s left of them from that nuclear torpedo they hit us with during the first days of the war). They are reconstituting the PLAN infantry force, which led the invasion of Alaska. We are leaving you with a lot of footage and reports of the naval infantry for your people to study. Our intelligence shows that the PLAN is moving forward with expanding its force to 600,000, and is currently training that force right now. We anticipate them being ready for combat by the end of the year, maybe sooner.”

Colonel Richter, General Gardner’s aide, asked, “Do they have the sealift capability to support such a force?”

“That is a good question Colonel; as of right now no. They can only support about 160,000 troopers at a time. Everyone accuses China of being a cut-and-copy nation- and frankly they are. They took our designs for our Marine Expeditionary Force, our amphibious assault ships and vehicles, and replicated them. They virtually hit us with our own equipment. They are expanding the capability rapidly. We just learned the other day that China and India have officially signed a non-aggression-pact, freeing up hundreds of thousands of soldiers and equipment they had been holding back in case they needed them against the Indians. To further complicate things, the Indians are going to start producing ships and other materials that the PLA needs for their war.”

General Wade snorted. “Why would the Indians support the Chinese and not the Allies? The Grain Consortium is selling them tens of millions of tons of food stocks a week.”

“Because their economy is still a wreck, and the orders the Chinese are able to place are going to be a huge economic boon to the Indian government. We are actively working with them right now to see if they will sever that activity and support the Allies instead, but we doubt they will,” said the SecDef angrily. “The loss of the Fifth and Seventh Fleets mean we have virtually no naval force in the Pacific or Indian Oceans, so they view China now as the dominant power in the region and want to stay on their good side.”

“As long as they do not actively join the war on the Axis side, I think we can handle it; there are ways for us to slow down their economy if need be (such as cyber-attacks). The main thing is, we cannot afford a war with two nations whose population is above two billion people. China is bad enough,” said General Wade.

Looking at his watch, the SecDef interjected, “Generals, I have to meet with the Israelis, and I need to prepare for that conference. I am going to leave you all to your tasks and new orders; please implement them immediately. General Gardner, I look forward to seeing you back in Washington, D.C. soon. You’ll be bouncing back and forth between your Command HQ in Washington State and DC for a bit, so you may want to invest in some airplane pillows.” The SecDef chuckled as he got up.

With that, the various commanders left for their commands to begin implementing the President’s orders and directives. General Gardner began the immediate task of identifying the units that would stay behind.

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