Bait and Switch?

13 October 2041
Tokyo, Japan
Office of the Prime Minister

The Prime Minister of Japan, Yasuhiro Hata, was in a tough position. Their strategic ally, the United States, had suffered a string of military disasters in the Pacific, culminating with the loss of their military base in Guam, the destruction of the Seventh Fleet, and the loss of the Hawaiian Islands. South Korea had ended their war with the North and had united the Peninsula; then they quickly received a non-aggression treaty with China in exchange for staying neutral in the war. Of course, Korea could not offer the Americans any real military support of significance, so their non-involvement would not turn the tide of the war in the Pacific. That, however, was not the case with Japan. PM Hata struggled with the decision of who to support.

Since the start of the war, the PLAN had maintained a strong naval presence around the Japanese waters. The PLAN had threatened to attack the American bases on Japanese soil again if they did not intern the U.S. forces. It pained the Premier to do so, but he ordered all American Forces in his country to be interned, and he did not come to the aid of his allies when they needed Japan the most.

During the opening hours of World War III, when the Chinese had initially attacked America, they began by disabling the American air and naval stations in Japan; they had shown how easily they could penetrate the Japanese air defenses. A lot of changes had been made to ensure this did not happen again, but it had already rattled the military leaders of Japan. They were no longer as confident as they once were that they could prevent the Chinese from dominating the skies above Japan.

Still, the PM had Japan prepare for war, conscripting one million additional men in to the Japanese Defense Force (JDF). The navy had just completed construction of two additional aircraft carriers, bringing the total number to five. Albeit, these carriers were small by American and Chinese standards; however, they could still carry four dozen aircraft, which was more than enough to threaten a carrier battle group. The real strength of the Japanese Navy though rested with their modern day battleships, which could carry 600 missile interceptors and 550 land and sea capable cruise missiles. These ships were designed with the sole intention of defeating the PLAN supercarriers and providing the Japanese Navy with a versatile weapons platform. The Japanese had three of these behemoths in service, with no additional ones scheduled for construction.

Today was a day that the PM had been dreading for some time; he would attend a meeting with the Chinese Foreign Minister and a virtual meeting with the Chinese Premier Jinping to discuss what would ultimately be the future of his nation. This was the day he would have to decide which path his nation will ultimately take-stand with America in her greatest hour of need, or join the Chinese juggernaut and finish the U.S. off.

PM Hata was shaken from his world of deep turbulent thought as the Chinese Foreign Minister, Fang Yung, walked in to the room. He bowed towards the PM at an appropriate depth to indicate his respect before walking over to him. “Prime Minister Hata, it is good to see you. Thank you for agreeing to meet with me,” said Fang.

The Prime Minister returned the bow before speaking. “I hope your covert travel here was not too inconvenient.” He attempted to muster up all of the genuineness he could in that statement, although he did not mean a word of it. In all reality, he hoped it was a terrible trip in to Japan, having to sneak his way across the border so as to not be seen by the American spies.

“This is an important meeting, so it was no trouble at all. Please, let me set up the secured holographic device so I can connect us with Premier Jinping. He is eager to speak with us.”

Hata tried very hard to conceal the sigh he let out before he responded. “Yes, let’s get him connected. We have much to discuss.”

Within a couple of minutes, the holographic device came to life, and the image of the man who was possibly the most powerful man in the world, the Chinese Premier, appeared.

“Prime Minister Hata, it is good to see you. Thank you for agreeing to meet with us, even if it is in secret for now,” said Premier Jinping. “I will get straight to the point. We are moving forward with the creation of the Pan Asian Alliance. I can tell you that Indonesia, Russia and India will be members; we would like to add Japan to that list. Our collective populations will now exceed four billion people; our combined military forces are in excess of twelve million soldiers, with another eight million more in training.” The Premier let PM Hata in on this bit of military intelligence, hoping that the sheer enormity of those numbers would sink in.

After pausing for dramatic effect, the Premier continued, “As you know, the PAA will be run in a similar manner to how we run the CMC here in China; each primary nation (which, of course, Japan would be one) would have three members on the central committee. The committee would, of course, control and run all of the countries that are part of the PAA. Decisions would be made by majority vote of the committee members, and would be binding to each member country. The smaller countries that join the PAA would only have one member represented on the committee.”

Premier Jinping stopped for a minute to see if PM Hata had any questions. As he did not, the Premier continued, “We are forming this confederation to better coordinate our economies, our currencies and our military organizations. We are also going to be moving to a crypto-currency, similar to Bitcoin, which will help us regulate our currencies a lot better. As you know, we would like Japan to be a part of this greater confederation-you are, after all, an Asian nation. What questions do you have that I may be able to answer?” asked the Premier. He wanted to get down to the meat of the negotiations.

Hata thought for a minute before responding, “I understand the proposal, and I agree in principle that a Pan Asian Alliance would benefit all of Asia. That said, you are asking us to not only turn our backs on our ninety-year alliance with America, but to launch a surprise attack on the West Coast. Even if I wanted to agree to this, I am not confident I could get my military leaders to agree to your proposal. I would have a revolt within the defense force.” PM Hata had a slight tremble of concern in his voice.

“I appreciate your situation, and I understand this would be a hard sell. Can we agree that joining the PAA and Confederation would be in Japan’s best interests at this junction in the war?” the Premier asked, wanting to start establishing some common ground with the Japanese PM.

“America is down, there is no denying that. Between your efforts and the Russians, you have really crippled the Americans. I will say this; if it is one thing the Americans are extremely good at, it’s finding a way to come from behind and win. They have been known to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat on more than one occasion. Why do you believe so strongly right now that America can be fully beaten? They are conducting a massive retooling of their economy and the rumors we have heard of their advanced weapon systems are amazing, if true.”

Jinping was ready with a response. “For a moment, let us put aside the argument of honor; as we know Japan has already betrayed America when you cast aside your initial defense agreement. In that situation, you made the best possible choice, considering the circumstances. I will be as direct and blunt with you as I can-if any of the information I am going to share with you makes its way to America, I can assure you there will be some severe consequences. That said, we have nearly two million soldiers on Alaskan soil, and we have another three million more waiting to be transported to North America. We also have another six million more men and women in military training right now who will be ready for service over the next twelve months. It is true that the Americans are starting to edge ahead of us in some weapon systems, but it comes down to numbers. For every eleven Chinese soldiers an American kills, there is a twelfth, thirteenth, fourteenth and fifteenth soldier to take their place. We are also going to open up a second front in North America by launching an invasion of the West Coast. As you can see, the Americans are going to die a death by a thousand cuts.” As he spoke, the Premier shared a video slide of the potential military operations that were planned.

“In addition to the second front we are going to open up in North America, the Indian government will also announce that they are joining the PAA, along with Indonesia. Both countries will be committing a sizeable portion of their military to the invasion as well. As you can see, the sheer volume of our army will be enough to crush the Americans. Japan will, of course, be given several states to federally administer once America has been defeated.”

As PM Hata sat and watched the video unfold, he couldn’t help but think, “If they can do this to America, how much more can they do to Japan? There is no way the Americans are going to be able to stand up to this large of an Army on their own soil, not while they are fighting in Europe too.”

Out loud, he responded, “You make a persuasive argument. I cannot deny the fact that your army has confounded the Americans and done what most armies have never been able to do-win on the battlefield. Putting aside your loss to General Gardner’s Third Army in the Middle East, your invasion of Alaska has been a resounding success. If I can persuade key members of my cabinet and military go along with this, how soon would you want us to attack the Americans? Would I be able to get some military assistance here in Japan should I need help in keeping control of things? Many people in my country will not be happy that we are betraying the U.S. They may be angry about their unprecedented use of nuclear weapons, but do not mistake that anger as them being willing to easily betray an ally.”

“I can authorize as many PLA soldiers as you would like, should you need them. As for the timeline for when you would attack, we have planned for the attack to take place on December 24th, the eve of their national holiday. Once Japan has formally agreed to join the PAA, we will discuss the attack in greater detail (and what Japan’s part would be) at a later meeting. Of course, your decision to join the alliance would stay secret until December 24th, when you would launch your surprise attack.”

“So once again, history would repeat itself as Japan would launch a surprise attack on America… ironic.”

“Yes, the irony is not lost on me either, but your forces will be able to execute the needed surprise my troops would never be able to achieve.”

There was an awkward moment of silence as PM Hata considered Japan’s entire situation. He took a deep breath before he responded. “All right, I agree. Japan will join the alliance; we will attack the Americans when the time comes. I will begin to identify the people who will be loyal to Japan and marginalize the ones who may cause us a problem.” Hata wanted this meeting to be over. Just because he had made this decision did not mean that he was happy with it.

Premier’s innate stoicism kept him from betraying too much excitement at this victory. “Excellent. Japan will rise with China to become one of the dominant powers of the world and beyond. We’ll continue to coordinate things secretly for the time being. Thank you for your time and for meeting with me.” As he finished his response, he killed the connection.

“You will have to excuse me Minister Yung, I have much to do if I am going to bring Japan in to the fold of the PAA. We can meet at a later date if you would like, or coordinate things through the embassy,” Hata said, indicating he would like to conclude their business for the day.

Standing up, Minister Yung said, “Of course. Please let me know how China can assist you in this transition; we stand ready to provide any support you may need.”

Once he was alone, PM Hata sat down and immediately began to put together a list of people he knew would be loyal to Japan over America. Identifying where people’s loyalties may lie became a lot easier after the Americans nuked the Middle East; they had really alienated themselves from the Japanese people with that attack. That, and their continued insistence that Japan join the war, knowing full well that Japan was not ready and would quickly become occupied by China… but what did America care? They had two great oceans separating them from the rest of the world.

The biggest challenge for PM Hata was going to be identifying who within the Japanese Navy he could trust and count on. Many inside the Navy were chomping at the bit to get in to the war; they wanted to come to the Americans’ aid as quickly as possible. They had conducted decades of joint naval exercises with the US Navy, so they felt a close bond with them. It would definitely take some time to identify who would stay loyal to Japan versus coming to the Americans’ aid.

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