Operation Red Dragon and the Unthinkable

Europe Changes Tactics

Despite the final fiscal and political unification of the European Union (EU) in 2026, Great Britain continued to maintain its autonomy. While the Scandinavian and Eastern European countries had folded into the EU during the Great Depression of the 2020s and early 2030s, the UK was determined to remain their own country. The free trade agreement with the US had guaranteed access to affordable food and had helped to fuel the revival of the British economy in the late 2030s. Prime Minister Stannis Blair, unlike Chancellor Lowden (the leader of the EU), had no problem convincing the members of Parliament of the dangers posed by the Islamic Republic, Russia and China.

At the private urgings of President Stein, Prime Minister Blair had persuaded Parliament to increase defense spending and the size of the British military several years ago. The United States also made available extremely low interest rate loans to aid Britain in their military buildup. When war broke out with the IR, the British were not only ready; they had a military force that was up to the task.

General Sir Michael Richards of the British Defense Staff walked briskly into the room. He was ready to provide his boss with the latest updates. “Prime Minister, the Americans confirmed several hours ago the nuclear devices that destroyed New York and Baltimore did in fact originate from the IR. Caliph Abbas himself confirmed this to President Stein during a brief phone call they had. As of right now, the Americans have not responded with nuclear weapons, but we believe they are going to hit the IR hard in the very near future.”

The Prime Minister was exhausted from the late night meetings and the early morning phone call he had with President Stein. He still could not believe the casualty estimates had reached over four million civilians dead. He understood the need for America to respond with their own nuclear weapons but had cautioned Stein on not going overboard. He did not want the Americans to escalate the war into a nuclear shooting exchange with China and Russia should they come to the defense of their ally. PM Blair signaled for Sir Richards to continue.

Nodding towards the PM, he expounded, “The last intelligence brief we received from the Americans says the Russians are going to invade the EU within 72 hours. Military intelligence and MI6 also concurs with this assessment.” He nodded towards Admiral Sir Mark West, the First Sea Lord, to provide the PM with the military recommendations.

“Mr. Prime Minister, with consultation from our intelligence services and the American Navy, I recommend we put our entire naval force to sea immediately. We need to ensure our naval forces are not destroyed in port or caught off guard as the American Pacific Fleet was when the Chinese launched their surprise attack,” Admiral West announced with confidence. “The Russians will try to move their fleet and subs into the North Atlantic, which will cause all sorts of logistical problems for us if they are left unchecked.”

“I agree, Admiral. Please have our naval forces put to sea as soon as possible. Let’s also start coordinating with the EU Navy and get ready to interdict the Russian Navy in the Norwegian Sea and the Greenland/Iceland gap,” the PM ordered.

The Prime Minister looked each of his senior military leaders in the eyes and said, “Gentlemen, the Americans have been warning us for years of the Russian military buildup. There was not a lot we could do to influence our EU partners to prepare; it is now time to put our own preparation to the test. General Sir Wall, I want the entire Reserve and Territorial Army activated immediately. Recall all military members from leave and cancel all future holidays. You are to have the military ready to disperse from their garrisons within 48 hours.”

The British army had quietly increased their military reserve from 25,000 personnel in 2037 to 275,000 by the end of 2040. The increase was mostly infantry, military police and armor — areas that could quickly bolster the strength and capability of the active duty force, should hostilities occur. The active duty force had likewise been increased from 89,000 to 300,000. Similarly, the Royal Air Force (RAF) and the Royal Navy had increased in size with the Navy, adding five additional submarines to their fleet and additional anti-submarine capabilities.

The RAF had followed the American Air Force in developing Fighter Drone Wings to augment their piloted aircraft. The advent of fighter drones offered the RAF a unique ability to increase their air power at a fraction of the cost of traditional manned fighters. The drones could outmaneuver their manned counterparts, and for all intents and purposes, were disposable. If they were shot down, the pilot was not placed at risk and could activate another drone. Drone aircraft did not have to take into account the survivability of a pilot; they were smaller, nimbler, carried a good weapon load, and cost a fraction of what a manned aircraft did.

The Americans had perfected the manufacturing of fighter drones and were able to produce nearly 85 % of the aircraft using 3D printers. A drone could be built within two months and ready for action. The construction was still incredibly complex, and required thousands of 3D printers of various sizes and capabilities, which is why it took so long from start to finish. It was only a matter of time until the American manufacturers were able to produce these drones in days instead of months.

3D printing had been around for decades, though it was not until a relatively small unknown manufacturer, the Atlas Group, built the first combat fighter drone in 2025 that the military saw a real combat use for them beyond surveillance and pinpoint strikes. After 10 years of testing and evaluation of various models, the US Air Force finally approved the first prototype two years before President Stein came into office. Once in office, the Stein administration exponentially increased the fighter drone programs as a means to cut costs while improving capability.

“Air Marshal Sir Trenchard, what is the status of our air defense capability?” asked the PM as he took another sip of his tea.

“Our laser missile defense and surface to air missile systems now encompass all of our airfields and major defense facilities and cities. If they use ballistic missiles, we are ready to knock them down. We will move the eight mobile laser systems with the army as they disperse. We also have eighty-seven of the American mobile anti-air/missile railgun systems; they will also disperse with the army. I will issue orders after this meeting to begin flying air combat missions over the country and our critical facilities round the clock. The Russians may suspect we know about their pending invasion with our sudden increase in force posture, but I assure you, they will not sucker punch us,” said Air Marshal Sir Andrew Trenchard with an air of confidence.

“Excellent, Sir Trenchard. We should be ready to provide fighter support over the EU when hostilities do begin. I have a meeting in two hours with Chancellor Lowden and his defense staff. I would like everyone to return back to the conference room in an hour and half and be ready to participate in this meeting. We need to convince the Chancellor and his staff that they need to mobilize. With that said, everyone is dismissed to issue what orders you need to and prepare our country for war,” said the Prime Minister in a stoic manner.

The European Union had also taken President Stein’s advice and expanded their military capabilities during the past several years, though not as aggressively as the British had. Where they differed from Great Britain was their expansion into drone technology; they had not placed significant resources into modernizing their military. They increased personnel, but continued to use equipment that was not on par with the technological advancements in military equipment the Russians, Chinese and Americans were now using. Full modernization of their forces to include mobile laser defense systems, railgun air defense systems and newer infantry rifles and tanks would be costly, and was simply not something they were willing to do yet.

The EU had increased their active duty army to 350,000 personnel with an additional 1.4 million in the reserves. Since the start of hostilities in the Middle East and the civil unrest taking place in cities all across the EU, Chancellor Lowden had most of the military deployed in the various cities attempting to put down the violence. They had yet to activate their reserves, or deploy their active duty forces with their full combat equipment. They were being bogged down, trying to assist local law enforcement with restoring order.

As Chancellor Lowden walked into the conference room, the arguing between the Defense Minister, André Gouin, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Paolo Prodi, was in full swing. The two ministers had been quarreling for weeks over the war in the Middle East and the intelligence being shared by the Americans and British about the Russian troop deployments. They disagreed strongly about what it all meant.

Minister Prodi shouted at his compatriot, “The Russians are not going to invade the EU! They might get involved in assisting the Islamic Republic in their fight against the Israelis and the Americans, but they are not going to intervene in Europe. Besides, there are 350,000 U.S. troops positioned in England, Germany, and Italy. Even if they decide to invade, the Americans will keep them busy long enough to allow the EU to fully mobilize.”

Minister Gouin had been arguing for the activation of the reserves and making preparations in case the Russians really did invade the EU. He was unscathed by the impolite speech from his co-worker. “I do not want to place all of our hopes on the American forces. You do realize that there is significant risk that the U.S. might soon be engaged in a nuclear fight with the Russians or the Chinese, right? The Americans will certainly respond to the horrific nuclear attack on their country. When they do, this might escalate other parties to participate in kind. The Chinese have already used several nuclear tipped torpedoes, and the U.S. has responded by destroying several Chinese harbors. That may be the extent of the nuclear exchange now, but who knows what tomorrow holds?”

“Gentlemen, please stop bickering. The British are about to come online and we need to decide what actions we are going to take.” Chancellor Lowden was clearly annoyed at his senior staff.

A technician interrupted the conversation, “—Chancellor, the British are ready to begin.”

Lowden shifted his eyes to the holographic screen. As it came to life, he could see the British senior military leaders were all present. He nodded in acknowledgement before greeting them. “Mr. Prime Minister, it is good to see you. I am sorry it could not be under better circumstances.”

PM Blair was if nothing else, a blunt and direct politician. He did not have anything personal against the EU Chancellor, but like most Europeans, he was slow to react and quick to give in to the fringes of the EU’s political parties and activist groups. “Mr. Chancellor, I will cut to the chase and keep this discussion short. We have a tremendous amount of work to do. By now, we all know the IR used two nuclear weapons against New York and Baltimore. Clearly the war is going to escalate, whether we like it or not. Are you going to mobilize your reserves and prepare to meet the Russians? Time is running out”.

“We have not mobilized our reserves just yet; our focus has been on putting down the uprisings in our cities. Not everyone in our government is convinced that the American intelligence about a Russian invasion is correct. I would also like to add that in light of the nuclear detonations last night, the Americans are likely to use nuclear weapons of their own, and we do not want to appear to be a threat to Russia and potentially encourage them to use nuclear weapons in a pre-emptive strike against the EU,” Lowden said, not entirely convinced of his own intelligence services’ assessment of the situation.

PM Blair was clearly irritated, but not surprised to learn his EU counterparts were not taking the military situation as seriously as the rest of the Allies. “If the EU is not going to take any precautions or preparation in spite of the evidence of a massive Russian troop buildup on your borders, then are you expecting the Americans to save you?” asked PM Blair with a bit of scorn in his voice.

“If the Russians do invade, our forces will stop them. The Americans will honor the NATO defensive pact,” said Minister Prodi.

“—Just as you have honored that same defensive pact when the Americans were attacked by the IR?” interrupted PM Blair.

“We have assisted the Americans by providing our bases to launch their invasion and giving them logistical support,” Minister Prodi retorted, with the same level of sarcasm.

PM Blair fixed his gaze on the Chancellor and announced, “Chancellor Lowden, we have expressed our concerns and offered to coordinate a defense if the Russians do invade. If they invade and the EU has still not activated its reserves and made preparations for the defense of Europe, then we will be forced to focus our defensive effort on protecting Britain. We are an island nation and are not equipped to defend Europe.”

Without even saying goodbye, the PM Blair abruptly ended the video conference call.

“Well that went about as well as we could have expected,” said General Volker Naumann, the EU Defense Chief of Staff. Naumann was a German military officer, and as such, received enough training from the Americans to know that if their intelligence suggested the Russians were going to invade, then in all likelihood the report was correct.

“Typical British arrogance,” Minister Prodi said, dismissing the PMs warning.

Chancellor Lowden sighed deeply. “Blair is right; we cannot rely on the Americans and British to provide the bulk of our defense. The Americans are already stretched thin; if the Americans have to choose between defending Alaska, Israel and their other interests, they will choose them over us. The British military is just not big enough to fully defend Europe; they will have their hands full with the Russian Navy.”

“I want our reserves activated immediately. Our active forces need to be pulled out of the cities and prepared to meet the Russians now… Blair is right, we have squandered precious time and disregarded the warnings the Americans have given us. Let us hope we are not too late.”

While the Central EU government began to mobilize their reserves and prepare the active duty force to meet a possible Russian invasion, the individual member states started to activate their own military reserves and national guard forces. Chief among them was Poland, the Czech Republic, Germany and Romania. Germany maintained an active force of 250,000 soldiers, the Czechs 95,000, the Romanians 130,000 and the Pols 190,000.

The central EU government maintained a military force separate from the member states (in a similar fashion to the US with the State National Guard units). People from any member state could join the central government forces and reserves or they could join their own country’s military. The central government also had the power to draft individuals from each member state, up to the size of 25 % of the member state’s active duty force. Since Germany had a military force of 250,000 soldiers, they would have to provide, if necessary, as many as 62,500 citizens during an EU draft.