1

Мироглед (нем.). — Б. пр.

2

Хенри А. Кисинджър, Дипломацията, София, „Труд“, 1997.

3

По израза на Н. D. S. Greenway, Boston Globe, 3 December 1992, p. 19.

4

Vaclav Havel, „The New Measure of Man“, New York Times, 8 July 1994, p. A 27.Jacques Delors, „Questions Concerning European Security“, Address, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Brussels, 10 September 1993, p. 2.

5

Томас Кун. „Структура на научните революции“ (ИК „Петър Берон“, 1996), с. 34.

6

John Lewis Gaddis, „Toward the Post-Cold War World“. Foreign Affairs, 70 (Spring 1991), 101; Judith Goldstein and Robert O. Keohane, „Ideas and Foreign Policy: An Analytical Framework“ в Goldstein and Keohane, eds., Ideas and Foreign Policy: Beliefs, Institutions, and Political Change (Ithaka: Cornell University Press, 1993), pp. 8–17.

7

В Трета глава се обсъжда паралелна линия на аргументация, основана не на края на Студената война, а на дългосрочни икономически и социални тенденции, водещи до „универсална цивилизация“.

8

Francis Fuкuyama, „The End of History“, The National Interest, 16 (Summer 1989), 4,18.

9

„Address to the Congress Reporting on the Yalta Conference“, 1 March, 1945, в Samuel I. Rosenman, ed., Public Papers and Addresses of Franklin D. Roosevelt (New York: Russel and Russel, 1969), XIII, 586.

10

Дар ал-ислям — мюсюлмански страни (ар.), Дар ал-харб — немюсюлмански страни (ар.). — Б. пр.

11

Вж. Max Singer and Aaron Wildawsky, The Real World Order: Zones of Peace, Zones of Turmoil (Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1993); Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, „Introduction: The End of the Cold War in Europe“, в Keohane, Nye and Stanle Hoffmann, eds., After the Cold War: International Institutions and State Strategies in Europe, 1989–1991 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1993), p. 6; и James M. Goldgeier, and Michael McFaul, „A Tale of Two Worlds: Core and Periphery in the Post-Cold War Era“, International Organization, 46 (Spring 1992), 467–491.

12

Вж. F. S. C. Northrop, The Meeting of East and West: An Inquiry Concerning World Understanding (New York: Macmillan, 1946).

13

Edward W. Said, Orientalism (New York: Pantheon Books, 1978), p. 43–44.

14

Вж. Jeneth N. Waltz, „The Emerging Structure of International Politics“, International Security, 18, (Fall 1993), 44-79; John Mearsheimer, „Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War“, International Security, 15 (Summer 1990), 5–56.

15

Стивън Д. Краснър поставя под въпрос значението на Вест-фалия като вододел. Вж. неговата статия „Westphalia and All That“ в Goldstein and Keohane, eds., Ideas amd Foreign Policy, pp. 235–264.

16

Збигнев Бжежински, „Извън контрол: Глобален безпорядък в навечерието на XXI век“, София, „Обсидиан“, 1994); Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Pandaemonium: Ethnicity in International Politics (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993), вж. също Robert Kaplan, „The Coming Anarchy“, Atlantic Monthly, 273 (Feb. 1994), 44–76.

17

Вж. New York Times, 7 February 1993, pp. 1, 14; и Gabriel Schoenfeld, „Outer Limits“, Post-Soviet Prospects, 17 (Jan. 1993), в която са цитирани данни от Министерството на отбраната на Русия.

18

Вж. Gaddis, „Toward the Post-Cold War World“; Benjamin R. Barber „Jihad vs. McWorld“, Atlantic Monthly, 269 (March 1992), 53–63, и Jihad vs. McWorld (New York: Times Books, 1995); Hans Mark, „After Victory in the Cold War: The Global Village or Tribal Warfare“ в J. J. Lee and Walter Korter., eds., Europe in Transition: Political, Economic and Security Prospects for the 1990s. (LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas in Austin, March 1990), pp. 19–27.

19

John J. Mearsheimer, „The Case for a Nuclear Deterrent“, Foreign Affairs, 72 (Summer 1993), 54.

20

Lester B. Pearson, Democracy in World Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1955) pp. 82–83.

21

Напълно независимо Йохан Галтунг развива анализ, който върви като близък паралел на мой анализ по отношение на извънредно голямото значение, което имат осемте основни цивилизации, респективно техните държави-ядра, по отношение на световната политика. Вж. неговата статия „The Emerging Conflict Formations“ в Katharine and Majid Tehranian, eds., Restructuring for World Peace: On the Treshold of the Twenty First Century (Cresskill NJ: Hampton Press, 1992) pp. 23–24. Галтунг вижда зараждането на седем регионално-културни групировки, доминирани от хегемоните: САЩ, Европейската общност, Япония, Китай, Русия, Индия и „ислямско ядро“. Други автори, които в началото на 90-те години обявиха сходни възгледи за цивилизациите, са: Michael Lind, „America as an Ordinary Country“, American Enterprise, (1 Sept./Oct., 1990), 19-23; Barry Buzan, „New Patterns of Global Security in the Twenty-first Century“, International Affairs, 67 (1991), 441, 448-449; Robert Gilpin, „The Cycle of Great Powers: Has It Finally Been Broken?“ (Princeton University, unpublished paper, 19 May 1993) pp. 6ff; William S. Lind, „North-South Relations: Rehiring to a World of Cultures in Conflict“, Current World Leaders, 35 (December 1992), 1073–1080, както и „Defending Western Culture“, Foreign Policy, 84 (Fall 1994) 40-50; „Looking Back from 2992: A World History“, chap. 13: „The Disastrous 21st Century“, Economist, 26 December 1992 — 8 January 1994, pp. 17-19; „The New World Order: Back to the Future“, Economist, 8 January 1994, pp. 21-23; „A Survey of Defence and the Democracies“, Economist, 1 September 1990; Zsolt Rostovanyi, „Clash of Civilizations and Cultures: Unity and Disunity of World Order“ (unpublished paper, 29 March 1993); Michael Vlahos, „Culture and Foreign Policy“, Foreign Policy, 82 (Spring 1991), 59-78; Donald J. Puchala, „The History of the Future of International Relations“, Ethics and International Affairs, 8 (1994), 177-202; Mahdi Elmandjra „Cultural Diversity: Key to Survival in the Future“ (доклад, изнесен на Първия мексикански конгрес по изследване на бъдещето, Мексико Сити, септември 1994 г.). През 1991 г. Алманджра публикува на арабски книга, която следващата година е преведена на френски под заглавието „Premiere Guerre Civilisationnelle“ (Casablanca: Ed. Toubkal, 1982, 1994).

22

Fernand Braudel, On History (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980), pp. 210–211.

23

„Историята на света е история на големите култури“. Oswald Spengler, Decline of the West (New York: A. A. Knopf, 1926–1928), II, 170. Основните трудове на учените, анализиращи природата и динамиката на цивилизациите, включват: Макс Вебер. „Социология на господството. Социология на религията“ (УИ „Св. Климент Охридски“, 1992, превод Румен Даскалов); Emile Durkheim and Marcel Mauss, „Note on the Notion of Civilization“, Social Research, 38 (1971), 808-813; Oswald Spengler, Decline of the West, Pitirim Sorokin, Social and Cultural Dynamics (New York: American Book Co., 4 vols., 1937–1985); Arnold Toynbee, A Study of History (London: Oxford University Press, 12 vols., 1934–1961); Alfred Weber, Kulturgeschichte als Kultursoziologie (Leiden: A. W. Sijthoff’s Uitgerversmaatschappij N. V, 1935); A. L. Kroeber, Configurations of Culture Growth (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1944) и Style and Civilizations (West-port, CT: Greenwood Press, 1973); Philip Bagby, Culture and History: Prolegomena to the Comparative Study of Civilizations (London: Longmans, Green, 1958); Carroll Quigley, The Evolution of Civilizations: An Introduction to Historical Analysis (New York: Macmillan, 1961); Rushton Coulborn, The Origin of Civilized Societies (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1959); S. N. Eisenstadt, „Cultural Traditions and Political Dynamics: The Origins and Modes of Ideological Politics“, British Journal of Sociology, 32 (June 1981), 155-181; Fernand Braudel, History of Civilizations (New York: Allen Lane — Penguin Press, 1994) и On History (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980); William H. McNeill, The Rise of the West: A History of the Human Community (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963); Adda B. Bozeman, „Civilizations Under Stress“, Virginia Quarterly Review, 51 (Winter 1975), 1–18, Strategic Intelligence and Statecraft (Washington: Brassey’s (US), 1992), и Politics and Culture in International History: From the Ancient Near East to the Opening of the Modern Age (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 1994); Christopher Daw-son, Dynamics of World History (LaSalle, IL: Sherwood Sugden Co, 1978) и The Movement of World Revolution (New York: Sheed and Ward, 1959); Immanuel Wallerstein: Geopolitics and Geoculture: Essays on the Changing World-System (Cambridge: Cambridge Uni-versity Press, 1992); Felipe Fernandez-Armesto, Millennium: A History of the Last Thousand Years (New York: Scribners, 1995). Към тези трудове може да бъде прибавена и последната, белязана от трагична съдба творба на Louis Hartz, A Synthesis of World History (Zurich: Humanity Press, 1983), която, както коментира Самюел Биър, „много точно предвижда разделението на света след Студената война на пет големи «културни области»: християнска, мюсюлманска, индуистка, конфуцианска и африканска.“ Memorial Minute, Louis Hartz, Harvard University Gazette, 89 (May 27, 1994). Изключително ценно въведение в анализа на цивилизациите намираме при Matthew Melko, The Nature of Civilizations (Boston: Porter Sargent, 1969). За полезните съвети във връзка с моята статия във Foreign Affairs съм задължен също така на Hayward W. Alker, Jr., „If Not Huntington’s «Civilizations», Then Whose?“ (unpublished paper, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 25 March 1994).

24

Braudel, On History, pp. 177–181, 212–214 и History of Civilizations, pp. 4-5; Gerrit W. Gong, The Standard of „Civilization“ в International Society (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1984), pp. 8Iff, pp. 97-100; Wallerstein, Geopolitics and Geoculture, pp. 160ff, 215ff.; Arnold J. Toynbee, Study of History, X, 274–275 и Civilizations on Trial (New York: Oxford University Press, 1948), p. 24.

25

Braudel, On History, p. 205. За разширен преглед на дефинициите за култура и цивилизация и особено за немското разграничение, вж. A. L. Kroeber and Clyde Kluckhohn, Culture: A Critical Review of Concepts and Definitions (Cambridge: Papers of the Peabody Museum of American Archaeology and Ethnology, Harvard University, Vol. XLVII, No. 1, 1952), на различни места, но особено с. 15–29.

26

Bozeman, „Civilizations Under Stress“, p. 1.

27

Durkheim and Mauss, „Notion of Civilization“, p. 811; Braudel, On History, p. 177, 202; Melko, Nature of Civilizations, p. 8; Wallerstein, Geopolitics and Geoculture, p. 215; Dawson, Dynamics of World History, pp. 51, 402; Spengler, Decline of the West, I, p. 31. Интерес представлява фактът, че International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences (New York: Macmillan and Free Press, ed. David L. Sills, vol. 17, 1968) не съдържа основна статия за „цивилизация“ или „цивилизации“. „Понятието за цивилизация“ (в ед. ч.) се разглежда като раздел на статията, озаглавена „Градска революция“, докато „цивилизациите“ (в мн. ч.) са споменати мимоходом в статията, озаглавена „Култура“.

28

Herodotus, The Persian Wars (Harmondsworth, England: Penguin Books, 1972), pp. 543–544.

29

Edward A. Tiryakian, „Reflections on the Sociology of Civilizations“, Sociological Analysis, 35 (Summer 1974), 125.

30

Toynbee, Study of History, I, 455, цитирано в Melko, Nature of Civilizations, pp. 8–9 и Braudel, On History, p. 202.

31

Braudel, History of Civilizations, p. 35 и On History, pp. 209–210.

32

Bozeman, Strategic Intelligence and Statecraft, p. 26.

33

Quigley, Evolution of Civilizations, pp. 146ff; Melko, Nature of Civilizations, pp. lOlff; вж. D. С Somervell, „Argument“ в направеното от него резюме на Arnold J. Toynbee, A Study of History, vols. 1–6 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1946), pp. 569ff.

34

Lucian W. Pye, „China: Erratic State, Frustrated Society“, Foreign Affairs, 69 (Fall 1990), 58.

35

Вж. Quigley, Evolution of Civilizations, chap. 3, pp. 77, 84; Max Weber, „The Social Psychology of the World Religions“, в From Max Weber: Essays in Sociology (London: Routledge, trans, and ed. H. H. Gerth and С Wright Mills, 1991), p. 267; Bagby, Culture and History, pp. 165-174; Spengler, Decline of the West, vol. II, p. 31ff.; Toynbee, Study of History, vol. I, p. 133; vol. XII, pp. 546-547; Braudel, History of Civilizations, на разл. места; McNeill, The Rise of the West, на разл. места и Rostovanyi, „Clash of Civilizations“, pp. 8–9.

36

Melko, Nature of Civilizations, p. 133.

37

Braudel, On History, p. 226.

38

Съществен е приносът към тази литература на един автор, който добре познава и двете култури. Вж. Claudio Veliz, The New World of the Gothic Fox (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1994).

39

Вж. Charles A. and Mary R. Beard, The Rise of American Civilization (New York: Macmillan, 2 vols., 1927) и Max Lerner, America as a Civilization (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1957). С патриотичен патос Лърнър заявява, че: „За добро или зло, Америка е това, което е — самостоятелна култура с типично за силните държави поведение и със собствено значение, нареждаща се до Гърция и Рим като една от забележителните цивилизации в историята.“ Той обаче признава, че „почти без изключение големите теории за историята не смятат Америка за самостоятелна цивилизация“ (с. 58–59).

40

Използването на „Изтока“ и „Запада“ за определяне на георафски области е объркващо и етноцентристко. „Северът“ и „Югът“ са всеобщо възприети като обусловени от двата полюса на света. Подобни ориентири не съществуват за „Запада“ и „Изтока“. Тук се поставя въпросът: На изток или на запад от какво? Всичко зависи от това къде се намирате. Допуска се, че първоначално „запад“ и „изток“ са били понятия, свързани със западната и източна част на Евразия. От американска гледна точка обаче Далечният изток е всъщност Далечният запад. През по-голямата част от историята на Китай „Запад“ е означавало Индия, докато в Япония под „Запад“ обикновено се е подразбирало Китай. William Е. Naff, „Reflections on the Question of «East and West» from the Point of View of Japan“, Comparative Civilization Review 13–14 (Fall 1985 & Spring 1986), 228.

41

За ролята на фрагментите на европейската цивилизация при създаването на нови общества в Северна Америка, Латинска Америка, Южна Африка и Австралия вж. Louis Hartz, The Founding of New Societies: Studies in the History of the United States, Latin America, South Africa, Canada, and Australia (New York: Harcourt, Brace & World, 1964).

42

Dawson, Dynamics of World History, p. 128. Вж. също Mary С. Bateson, „Beyond Sovereignity: An Emerging Global Civilization“, в R. B. J. Walker and Saul H. Mendlovitz, ed., Contending Sovereignities: Redefining Political Community (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1990), pp. 148–149.

43

Тойнби класифицира както Теревада, така и ламаизма като фосилни цивилизаци — Study of History, I, 35, 91–92.

44

Как стои въпросът с еврейската цивилизация? Повечето изследователи почти не я споменават. От гледна точка на числеността юдаизмът определено не е голяма цивилизация. За Тойнби тя е затворена цивилизация, възникнала на базата на древносирийската цивилизация. Исторически тя е свързана както с християнството, така и с исляма, и в продължение на няколко века евреите са поддържали своята културна идентичност в рамките на западната, православната и ислямската цивилизация. Със създаването на държавата Израел евреите се сдобиват с всички обективни характеристики на цивилизация: религия, език, обичаи, литература, институции и териториален и политически дом. Съществува обаче и въпросът за субективната идентификация. Евреите, живеещи в рамките на други култури, се разполагат в континуума от пълно идентифициране с юдаизма и Израел до номинален юдаизъм и пълно идентифициране с цивилизацията, в която съществуват, като последното се отнася в най-голяма степен за живеещите на запад евреи. Вж. Mordecai М. Kaplan, Judaism as a Civilization (Philadelphia: Reconstructionist Press, 1981, публикувана за пръв път през 1934 г.) с. 173–208.

45

Вж. например Bernard Lewis, Islam and the West (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993); Toynbee, Study of History, chap. IX, „Contacts between Civilizations in Space (Encounters between Contemporaries)“, VIII, pp. 88ff.; Benjamin Nelson, „Civilizational Complexes and Intercivilizational Encounters“, Sociological Analysis, 34 (Summer 1973), 79–105.

46

S. N. Eisenstadt, „Cultural Traditions and Political Dynamics: The Origins and Modes of Ideological Politics“, British Journal of Sociology, 32 (June 1981), 157 и „The Axial Age: The Emergence of Transcendental Visions and the Rise of Clerics“, Archives Europeennes de Sociologie, 22 (No. 1, 1982), 298. Вж. също Benjamin I. Schwartz, „The Age of Transcendence in Wisdom, Revolution and Doubt: Perspectives on the First Millennium B.C.“, Daedalus, 104 (Spring 1975), 3. Концепцията за аксиалната епоха произхожда от Карл Ясперс. Вж. Karl Jaspers, Vom Ursprung und Ziel der Geschichte (Zurich: Artemisverlag, 1949).

47

Toynbee, Civilization on Trial, p. 69. Вж. William H. McNeill, The Rise of the West, pp. 295–298, който подчертава степента, до която с идването на християнската ера „организираните търговски пътища както по суша, така и по море… свързват четирите големи култури на континента“.

48

Braudel, On History, p. 14: „…културното влияние се разпростира трудно, забавено от продължителните и бавни маршрути. Ако се вярва на историците, китайската мода от времето на династия Тан (618–907) е пътувала толкова бавно, че едва през XV в. е до-стигнала остров Кипър и великолепния двор на Луси-нян. Оттам тя се придвижвала с по-голямата скорост на средиземноморската търговия до Франция и ексцентричния двор на Шарл VI, където високите шапки и островърхите обувки незабавно станали популярни, наследство на един отдавна изчезнал свят — тъй както светлината на отдавна изчезнали звезди продължава да достига до нас.“

49

Вж. Toynbee, Study of History, VIII, 347–348.

50

McNeill, Rise of the West, p. 547.

51

D. K. Fieldhouse, Economics and Empire, 1830–1914 (London: Macmillan, 1984), p. 3; F. J. С. Hearnshaw, Sea Power and Empire (London: George Harrap and Co. 1940), p. 179.

52

Geoffrey Parker, The Military Revolution: Military Innovation and the Rise of the West (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988), p. 4; Michael Howard, „The Military Factor in European Expansion“, в Hedley Bull and Adam Watson, eds., The Expansion of Inter-national Society (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1984), pp. 33ff.

53

A. G. Kenwood and A. L. Lougheed, The Growth of the International Economy 1820–1990 (London: Routledge, 1992), pp. 78-79; Angus Maddison, Dynamic Forces in Capitalist Development (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991), pp. 326-27; Alan S. Blinder, цитиран от New York Times, 12 March 1995, p. 5E. Вж. също Simon Kuznets, Quantitative Aspects of the Economic Growth of Nations — X. Level and Structure of Foreign Trade: Long-term Trends, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 15 (Jan. 1967, Part II), pp. 2–10.

54

Charles Tilly, „Reflections on the History of European State-making“, в Tilly, ed., The Formation of National States in Western Europe (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1975), p. 18.

55

R. R. Palmer, „Frederick the Great, Guibert, Bulow: From Dynastic to National War“ в Peter Paret, ed., Makers of Modern Strategy from Machiavelli to the Nuclear Age (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986), p. 119.

56

Edward Mortimer, „Christianity and Islam“, International Affairs, 67 (Jan. 1991), 7.

57

Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society (New York: Columbia University Press, 1977), pp. 9–13.Вж. също Adam Watson, TheEvolu-tion of International Society (London: Routledge, 1992) и Barry Bu-zan, „From International System to International Society: Structural Realism and Regime Theory Meet the English School“, International Organization, Al (Summer 1993), 327–352, който прави разграничение между „цивилизационни“ и „функционални“ модели на международно общество и стига до извода, че „цивилизационните модели на международно общество са преобладавали в историческите летописи“ и че „изглежда, няма чисти типове функционални международни общества“ (p.336).

58

Spengler, Decline of the West, I, 93–94.

59

Toynbee, Study of History, I, 149ff, 154, 157ff.

60

Braudel, On History, p. xxxiii.

61

V S. Naipaul, „Our Universal Civilization“, The 1990 Wriston Lecture, The Manhattan Institute, New York Review of Books, 30 October 1990, p. 20.

62

Вж. James Q. Wilson, The Moral Sense (New York: Free Press, 1993); Michael Walzer, Thick and Thin: Moral Argument at Home and Abroad (Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, 1994), особено Глава 1 и 4, а за кратък преглед: Frances V Harbour, „Basic Moral Values: A Shared Core“, Ethics and International Affairs, 9 (1995), 155–170.

63

Vaclav Havel, „Civilization’s Thin Veneer“, Harvard Magazine, 97 July-August 1995), 32.

64

Х. Алкър основателно изтъква, че в статията ми за „Форин Афеърс“ аз отхвърлям идеята за световна цивилизация, определяйки понятието като „най-висше културно групиране на хора и най-общо ниво на културна идентичност, като изключим онова, което отличава човечеството от другите видове“. Разбира се, повечето учени, занимаващи се с цивилизациите, използват термина по та-къв начин. Но в тази глава аз разширявам тази дефиниция, включвайки и възможността народите по света да се идентифицират с ясно определена глобална култура, която допълва или измества цивилизацията в смисъла на западна, ислямска и синоистка.

65

Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1977), p. 317.

66

John Rockwell, „The New Colossus: American Culture as Power Export“, и няколко автори, „Channel-Surfing Through U.S. Culture in 20 Lands“, New York Times, 30 January 1994, sec. 2, pp. 1 ff; David Rieff, „A Global Culture“, World Policy Journal, 10 (Winter 1993–94), 73–81.

67

Michael Vlahos, „Culture and Foreign Policy“, Foreign Policy, 82 (Spring 1991), 69; Kishore Mahbubani, „The Dangers of Decadence: What the Rest Can Teach the West“, Foreign Affairs, 72 (Sept./Oct. 1993), 12.

68

Aaron L. Friedberg, „The Future of American Power“, Political Science Quarterly, 109 (Spring 1994), 15.

69

Richard Parker, „The Myth of Global News“, New Perspectives Quarterly, 11 (Winter 1994), 41-44; Michael Gurevitch, Mark R. Levy, and Itzhak Roeh, „The Global Newsroom: convergences and diversities in the globalization of television news“ в Peter Dahlgren and Colin Sparks, eds., Communication and Citizenship: Journalism and the Public Sphere in the New Media (London: Routledge, 1991), p. 215.

70

Ronald Dore, „Unity and Diversity in World Culture“, в Hedley Bull and Adam Watson, ed., The Expansion of International Society (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1984), p. 423.

71

Robert L. Bartley, „The Case for Optimism — The West Should Believe in Itself“, Foreign Affairs, 72 (Sept./Oct. 1993), 16.

72

Общ брой на хората, говорещи езици, използвани от над 1 млн души.

73

Вж. Joshua A. Fishman, „The Spread of English as a New Perspective for the Study of Language Maintenance and Language Shift“, в Joshua A. Fishman, Robert L. Cooper, and Andrew W. Conrad, The Spread of English: The Sociology of English as an Additional Language (Rowley, MA: Newbury House, 1977), pp. 108ff.

74

Fishman, „Spread of English as a New Perspective“, pp. 118–119.

75

Randolf Quirk в Braj B. Kachru, The Indianization of English (Delhi: Oxford, 1983), p. ii; R. S. Gupta and Kapil Kapoor, eds, English in India — Issues and Problems (Delhi: Academic Foundation, 1991), p. 21. Вж. Sarvepalli Gopal, „The English Language in India“, Encounter, 73 (July/Aug. 1989), 16, според когото 35 милиона индийци „говорят или пишат на един или друг вид английски“. World Bank, World Development Report 1985, 1991 (New York: Oxford University Press), табл. 1.

76

Kapoor and Gupta, „Introduction“, в Gupta and Kapoor, eds., English in India, p. 21; Gopal, „English Language“, p. 16.

77

Fishman, „Spread of English as a New Perspective“, p. 115.

78

Вж. Newsweek, 19 July 1993, p. 22.

79

Цитирано от R. N. Srivastava and V P. Sharma, „Indian English Today“ в Gupta and Kapoor, eds., English in India, p. 191; Gopal, „English Language“, p. 17.

80

New York Times, 16 July 1993, p. A9; Boston Globe, 15 July 1993, p. 13.

81

В допълнение на обясненията във World Christian Encyclopedia вж. също тези на Jean Bourgeois-Pichat, „Le nombre des hom-mes: Etat et prospective“, в Albert Jacquard et al., Les Scientifiques Parlent (Paris: Hachette, 1987), pp. 140, 143, 151, 154–156.

82

Edward Said за V S. Naipaul, цитиран от Brent Staples, „Con Men and Conquerors“, New York Times Book Review, 22 May 1994, p. 42.

83

A. G. Kenwood and A. L. Lougheed, The Growth of the International Economy 1820–1990 (London: Routledge, 3rd. ed., 1992), pp. 78-79; Angus Maddison, Dynamic Forces in Capitalist Development (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991), pp. 326-327; Alan S. Blin-der, New York Times, 12 March 1995, p. 5E.

84

David M. Rowe, „The Trade and Security Paradox in International Politics“, (unpublished manuscript, Ohio State University, 15 Sept. 1994), p. 16.

85

Dale С Copeland, „Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations“, International Security 20 (Spring 1996), 25.

86

William J. McGuire and Claire V McGuire, „Content and Process in the Experience of Self“, Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 21 (1988), 102.

87

Donald L. Horowitz, „Ethnic Conflict Management for Policy-Makers“, в Joseph V Montville and Hans Binnendijk, eds., Conflict and Peacemaking in Multiethnic Societies (Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1990), p. 121.

88

Roland Robertson, „Globalization Theory and Civilizational Analysis“, Comparative Civilizations Review, 17 (Fall 1987), 22; Jeffe-ry A. Shad, Jr., „Globalization and Islamic Resurgence“, Comparative Civilizations Review, 19 (Fall 1988), 67.

89

Вж. Cyril E. Black, The Dynamics of Modernization: A Study in Comparative History (New York: Harper & Row, 1966), p. 1-34; Rein-hard Bendix, „Tradition and Modernity Reconsidered“, Comparative Studies in Society and History, 9 (April 1967), 292–293.

90

Fernand Braudel, On History (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980), p. 213.

91

Литературата върху отличителните характеристики на западните цивилизации е, разбира се, огромна. Вж. William H. Мс-Neill, Rise of the West: A History of the Human Community (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963); Braudel, On History и по-ранни трудове; Immanuel Wallerstein, Geopolitics and Geoculture: Essays on the Changing World System (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991). Карл В. Дойч прави изчерпателно, сбито и навеждащо към размисъл сравнение между Запада и девет други цивилизации по двайсет и един географски, културни, икономически, технологични, социални и политически признака, като подчертава степента, в която Западът се различава от другите. Вж. Karl W. Deutsch, „On Nationalism, World Regions, and The Nature of the West“, в Per Torsvik, ed., Mobilization, Center-Periphery Structures, and Nation-building: A Volume in Commemoration of Stein Rokkan (Bergen: Uni-versitetsforlaget, 1981), pp. 51–93. За едно кратко представяне на очевидните и отличителни черти на западната цивилизация през 1500 г. вж. Charles Tilly, „Reflections on the History of European State-making“, в Tilly, ed., The Formation of National States in Western Europe (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1975), pp. 18ff.

92

Не пред хората, а пред Бога и закона (лат.). — Б. пр.

93

Deutsch, „Nationalism, World Regions, and the West“, p. 77.

94

Вж. Robert D. Putnam, Making Democracy Work: Civil Traditions in Modern Italy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993), pp. 12 Iff.

95

Deutsch, „Nationalism, World Regions, and the West“, p. 78. Вж. също Stein Rokkan, „Dimensions of State Formation and Nation-building: A Possible Paradigm for Research on Variations within Europe“, в Charles Tilly, The Formation of National States in Western Europe (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1975), p. 576 и Putnam, Making Democracy Work, pp. 124–127.

96

Geert Hofstede, „National Cultures in Four Dimensions: A Research-based Theory of Cultural Differencies among Nations“, International Studies of Management and Organization, 13 (1983), 52.

97

Harry С Triandis, „Cross-Culrural Studies of Individualism and Collectivism“, Nebraska Symposium on Motivation 1989 (Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press 1990), 44–133 и New York Times, 25 December 1990, p. 41. Вж. също George С. Lodge and Ezra F. Vogel, eds., Ideology and National Competitiveness: An Analysis of Nine Countries (Boston: Harvard Business School Press 1987), на различни места.

98

Дискусиите за взаимодействието на цивилизациите почти неизбежно стигат до някакъв вариант на тези типове реакция. Вж. Arnold J. Toynbee, Study of History (London: Oxford University Press, 1935–61). II, 187ff, VIII, 152–153, 214; John L. Esposito, The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992), pp. 53-62; Daniel Pipes, In the Path of God: Islam and Political Power (New York: Basic Books, 1983), pp. 105–142.

99

Pipes, Path of God, p. 349.

100

William Pfaff, „Reflections: Economic Development“, New Yorker, 25 December 1978, p. 47.

101

Pipes, Path of God, pp. 197–198.

102

Ali Al-Amin Mazrui, Cultural Forces in World Politics (London: James Currey, 1990), pp. 4–5.

103

Esposito, Islamic Threat, pp. 55-62; и Pipes, Path of God, pp. 114–120.

104

Rainer С Baum, „Authority and Identity — The Invariance Hypothesis II“, Zeitschrift fur Soziologie, 6 (Oct. 1977), 368–369. Вж. също Rainer С. Baum, „Authority Codes: The Invariance Hypothesis“, Zeitschrift fur Soziologie, 6 (Jan. 1977), 5–28.

105

Вж. Adda B. Bozeman, „Civilizations Under Stress“, Virginia Quarterly Review, 51 (Winter 1975), с 5ff; Leo Frobenius, Pai-deuma: Umrisse einer Kultur- und Seelenlehre (Munich: C.H. Beck 1921), pp. llff; Oswald Spengler, The Decline of the West (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2 vols., 1926, 1928), II, pp. 57ff.

106

Bozeman, „Civilizations Under Stress“, p. 7.

107

William E. Naff, „Reflections on the Question of «East and West» form the Point of View of Japan“, Comparative Civilizations Review, 13/14 (Fall 1985 & Spring 1986), 222.

108

David E. Apter, „The Role of Traditionalism in the Political Modernization of Ghana and Uganda“, World Politics, 13 (Oct. I960), 47–68.

109

S. N. Eisenstadt, „Transformation of Social, Political, and Cultural Orders in Modernization“, American Sociological Review, 30 (Oct. 1965), 659–673.

110

Pipes, Path of God, pp. 107, 191.

111

Braudel, On History, pp. 212–213.

112

Jeffery R. Barnett, „Exclusion as National Security Policy“, Parameters, 24 (Spring 1994), 54.

113

Aaron L. Friedberg, „The Future of American Power“, Political Science Quarterly, 109 (Spring 1994), 20–21.

114

Hedley Bull, „The Revolt Against the West“ в Hedley Bull and Adam Watson, eds., Expansion of International Society (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1984), p. 219.

115

Barry С Buzan, „New Patterns of Global Security in the Twenty-first Century“, International Affairs, 67 (July 1991), 451.

116

Project 2025 (draft) 20 September 1991, p. 7; World Bank, World Development Report 1990 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1990), pp. 229, 244; The World Almanac and Book of Facts 1990 (Mahwah, NJ: Funk & Wagnalls, 1989), p. 539.

117

United Nations Development Program, Human Development Report 1994 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1994), pp. 136–137, 207-211; World Bank, „World Development Indicators“, World Development Report 1984, 1986, 1990, 1994; Bruce Russett et al., World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1994), pp. 222–226.

118

Paul Bairoch, „International Industrialization Levels from 1750 to 1980“, Journal of European Economic History, 11 (Fall 1982), 296 304.

119

Economist, 15 May 1993, p. 83, цитиращ International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook; „The Global Economy“, Economist, 1 October 1994, pp. 3-9; Wall Street Journal, 17 May 1993, p. A12; Nicholas D. Kristof, „The Rise of China“, Foreign Affairs, 72 (Nov./Dec. 1993), 61; Kishore Mahbubani, „The Pacific Way“, Foreign Affairs, 74(Jan./Feb. 1995), 100–103.

120

Включително и страните от Варшавския договор през периода на Студената война.

121

Изчисленията за православната цивилизация включват бившия Съветски съюз и бивша Югославия. + Под рубриката „Други“ са включени други цивилизации и допустими грешки при закръглянето.

122

Делът за СССР е въз основа на изчисления за 1924 г. J. М. Mackintosh in Н. В. Liddel-Hart, The Red Army — 1918-1945; The Soviet Army-1946 to Present (New York: Harcourt, Brace, 1956).

123

International Institute for Strategic Studies, „Tables and Analyses“, The Military Balance 1994–95 (London: Brassey’s 1994).

124

Project 2025, p. 13; Richard A. Bitzinger, The Globalization of Arms Production: Defense Markets in Transition (Washington, D.C.: Defense Budget Project, 1993), passim.

125

Връзката между власт и култура почти напълно се подценява от тези, които смятат, че вече възниква универсална цивилизация, че дори е задължително тя да се появи, както и от тези, които под-държат, че позападняването е предпоставка за модернизацията. Те не искат да признаят, че самата логика на тяхната постановка изисква те да поддържат експанзията и консолидацията на господството на Запада в света и че ако се оставят останалите общества да определят сами съдбата си, те ще възстановяват стари вярвания, обичаи и порядки, което според протагонистите на тезата за универсалната цивилизация е противопоказно за прогреса. Хората, които изгъкват предимствата на универсалната цивилизация обаче, обикновено не изтъкват предимствата на универсалната империя.

126

Joseph S. Nye, Jr., „The Changing Nature of World Power“, Political Science Quarterly, 105 (Summer 1990), 181–182.

127

William H. McNeill, The Rise of the West: A History of the Human Community (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963) p 545.

128

Ronald Dore, „Unity and Diversity in Contemporary World Culture“ в Bull and Watson, eds., Expansion of International Society, pp.420-421.

129

William E. Naff, „Reflections on the Question of «East and West» from the Point of View of Japan“, Comparative Civilizations Review, 13/14 (Fall 1985 and Spring 1986), 219; Arata Isozaki, „Escaping the Cycle of Eternal Resources“, New Perspectives Quarterly, 9 (Spring 1992), 18.

130

Richard Sission, „Culture and Democratization in India“ в Larry Diamond, Political Culture and Democracy in Developing Countries (Boulder: Lyme Rienner, 1993), pp. 55–61.

131

Graham К Fuller, „The Appeal of Iran“, National Interest, 37 (Fall 1994), 95.

132

Eisuke Sakakibara, „The End of Progressivism: A Search for New Goals“, Foreign Affairs, 74 (Sept./Oct. 1995), 8–14.

133

T. S. Eliot, Idea of a Christian Society (New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1940), p. 64.

134

Gilles Keppel, Revenge of God: The Resurgence of Islam, Christanity and Judaism in the Modern World (University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State University Press, trans. Alan Braley 1994), p. 2.

135

George Weigel, „Religion and Peace: An Argument Complexified“, Washington Quarterly, 14 (Spring 1991), 27.

136

James H. Billington, „The Case for Orthodoxy“, New Republic, 30 May 1994, p. 26; Suzanne Massie, „Back to the Future“, Boston Globe, 28 March 1993, p. 72.

137

Ислямска духовна семинария. — Б. пр.

138

Economist, 8 January 1993, p. 46; James Rupert, Dateline Tashkent: Post-Soviet Central Asia; Foreign Policy, 87 (Summer 1992), 180.

139

Fareed Zakaria, „Culture Is Destiny: A Conversation with Lee Kuan Yew“, Foreign Affairs, 73 (March/April 1994), 118.

140

Hassan Al-Turabi, „The Islamic Awakening’s Second Wave“, New Perspectives Quarterly, 9 (Summer 1992), 52-55; Ted G. Jelen, The Political Mobilization of Religious Belief (New York: Praeger, 1991), pp. 55ff.

141

Bernard Lewis, „Islamic Revolution“, New York Review of Books, 21 January 1988, p. 47; Kepel, Revenge of God, p. 82.

142

Sudhir Kakar, „The Colors of Violence: Cultural Identities, Religion, and Conflict“, chap. 6, „A New Hin-du Identity“, p. 11

143

Suzanne Massie, „Back to the Future“, p. 72; Rupert, „Dateline Tashkent“, p. 180.

144

Rosemary Radford Ruther, „A World on Fire with Faith“, New York Times Book Review, 26 January 1992, p. 10; William H. McNeill, „Fundamentalism and the World of the 1990s“, in Martin E. Marty and R. Scott Appleby, eds., Fundamentalisms and Society (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993), p. 561

145

New York Times, 15 January 1993, p. A9; Henry Clement Moore, Images of Development: Egyptian Engineers in Search of Industry (Cambridge: M.I.T. Press, 1980), pp. 227–228.

146

Henry Scott Stokes, „Korea’s Church Militant“, New York Times Magazine, 28 November 1972, p. 68.

147

Rev. Edward J. Dougherty, S. I, New York Times 4 July 1993, p. 10; Timothy Goodman, „Latin America’s Reformation“, American Enterprise, 2 (July-August 1991), 43; New York Times, 11 July 1993, p.l; Time, 21 January 1991, p. 69.

148

Economist, 6 May 1989, p. 23; 11 November 1989, p. 41; Times (London), 12 April 1990, p. 12; Observer, 27 May 1990, p. 18.

149

New York Times, 16 July 1993, p. A9; Boston Globe, 15 July 1993, p. 13.

150

Вж. Mark Juergensmeyer, The New Cold War? Religious Nationalism Confronts the Secular State (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993)

151

Zakaria, „Conversation with Lee Kuan Yew“, p. 118; Al-Turabi, „Islamic Awakening’s Second Wave“, p. 53. Вж. Terrance Carroll, „Secularization and States of Modernity“, .World Politics, 36 (April 1984), 362–382.

152

John L. Esposito, The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992), p. 10.

153

Regis Debray, „God and the Political Planet“, New Perspectives Quarterly, 11 (Spring 1994), 15.

154

Esposito, Islamic Threat, p. 10; Gilles Keppel, цитиран в Sophie Lannes, „La revanche de Dieu — Interview with Gilles Keppel“, Geopolitique, 33 (Spring 1991), 14; Moore, Images of Development, pp. 214–216.

155

Juergensmeyer, The New Cold War, p. 71; Edward A. Gargan, „Hindu Rage Against Muslims Transorming Indian Politics“, New York Times, 17 September 1993, p. Al; Khushwaht Singh, „India, the Hindu State“, New York Times, 3 August 1993, p. A17.

156

Dore в Bull and Watson, eds., Expansion of International Society, p. 411; McNeill в Marty and Appleby, eds., Fundamentalisms and Society, p. 569.

157

Kishore Mahbubani, „The Pacific Way“, Foreign Affairs, 74 (Jan.-Feb. 1995), 100-103; IMD Executive Opinion Survey, Economist, 6 May 1995, p.5; World Bank, Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 1993 (Washington: 1993) pp. 66–67.

158

Tommy Koh, America’s Role in Asia: Asian Views (Asia Foundation, Center for Asian Pacific Affairs, Report No. 13, Novem-berl993),p.l.

159

Alex Kerr, Japan Times, 6 November 1994, p. 10.

160

Yasheng Huang, „Why China Will Not Collapse“, Foreign Policy, 95 (Summer 1995), 57.

161

Cable News Network, 10 May 1994; Edward Friedman, „A Failed Chinese Modernity“, Daedalus, 122 (Spring 1993), 5; Perry Link, „China’s Core Problem“, ibid, pp. 201–204.

162

Economist, 21 January 1995, pp. 38-39; William Theodore de Bary, „The New Confucianism in Beijing“, American Scholar, 64 (Spring 1995), 175ff.; Benjamin L.’Self, „Changing Role for Confucianism in China“, Woodrow Wilson Center Report, 7 (September 1995), 4-5; New York Times, 26 August 1991, A19.

163

Lee Teng-hui, „Chinese Culture and Political Renewal“, Journal of Democracy, 6 (Октомври 1995), 6–8.

164

Alex Kerr, Japan Times, 6 November 1994, p. 10; Kazuhiko Ozawa, „Ambivalence in Asia“, Japan Update, 44 (May 1995), 18–19.

165

За някои от тези проблеми вж. Ivan P. Hall, „Japan’s Asia Card“, National Interest, 38 (Winter 1994–95), 19ff.

166

Casimir Yost, „America’s Role in Asia: One Year Later“, (Asia Foundation, Center for Asian Pacific Affairs, Report No. 15, February 1994), p. 4; Yoichi Funabashi, „The Asianization of Asia“, Foreign Affairts, 72 (Nov./Dec. 1993), 78; Anwar Ibrahim, International Herald Tribune, 31 January 1994, p. 6.

167

Kishore Mahbubani, „Asia and a Unites States in Decline“, Washington Quarterly, 17 (Spring 1994), 5-23; за противоположната теза вж. Eric Jones, „Asia’s Fate: A Response to the Singapore School“, National Interest, 35 (Spring 1994), 18–28.

168

Mahathir bin Mohamad, Mare jirenma (The Malay Dilemma) (Tokyo: Imura Bunka Jigyo, trans. Takata Masayoshi, 1983), p. 267, цитиран в Ogura Kazuo, „A Call for a New Concept of Asia“, Japan Echo, 20 (Fall 1993), 40.

169

Li Xiangiu, „A Post-Cold War Alternative from East Asia“, Straits Times, 10 February 1992, p. 24.

170

Yotaro Kobayashi, „Re-Asianize Japan“, New Perspectives Quarterly, 9 (Winter 1992), 20; Funabashi, „The Asianization of Asia“, p. 75ff; George Yong-Soon Yee, „New East Asia in a Multicultural World“, International Herald Tribune, 15 July 1992, p. 8.

171

Yoichi Funabashi, „Globalize Asia“, New Perspectives Quarterly, 9 (Winter 1992), 23-24; Kishore M. Mahbubani, „The West and the Rest“, National Interest, 28 (Summer 1992), 7; Hazuo, „New Concept of Asia“, p. 41.

172

Economist, 9 March 1996, p. 33.

173

Bandar bin Sultan, New York Times, 10 July 1994, p. 20.

174

John L. Esposito, The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992), p. 12; AH E. Hillal Dessouki, „The Islamic Resurgence“ в Ali E. Hillal Dessouki, ed, Islamic Resurgence in the Arab World (New York: Praeger, 1982), pp. 9–13.

175

Thomas Case, цитиран в Michael Walzer, The Revolution of the Saints: A Study in the Origins of Radical Politics (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1965), pp. 10-11; Hassan Al-Turabi „The Islamic Awakening’s Second Wave“, New Perspectives Quarterly, 9 (Summer 1992), 52. Вероятно най-полезно за разбирането на характера, притегателната сила, ограниченията и историческата роля на ислямския фундаментализъм от късния XX в. е изследването на Уолзър върху английския калвинистки пуританизъм от XVI и XVII в.

176

Donald К. Emerson, „Islam and Regime in Indonesia: Who’s Coopting Whom?“, 1989, p. 16; M. Nasir Tamara, Indonesia in the Wake of Islam, 1965–1985 (Kuala Lumpur: Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia, 1986), p. 28; Economist, 14 December 1985, pp. 35-36; Henry Tanner, „Islam Challenges Secular Society“, International Herald Tribune, 27 June 1987, pp. 7-8; Sabri Sayari, „Politicization of Islamic Re-traditionalism: Some Preliminary Notes“ в Metin Heper and Raphael Israeli, eds., Islam and Politics in the Modern Middle East (London: Croom Helm, 1984), p. 125; New York Times, 26 March 1989, p. 14; 2 March 1995, p. A8. Вж. например доклада за тези страни в New York Times, 17 November 1985, p. 2E; 15 November 1987, p. 13; 6 March 1991, p. All; 20 October 1990, p. 4; 26 December 1992, p. 1; 8 March 1994, p. A15 и Economist, 15 June 1985, pp. 36–37 и 18 September 1992, pp. 23–25.

177

New York Times, 4 October 1993, p. A8; 29 November 1994, p. A4; 3 February 1994, p. 1; 26 December 1992, p. 5; Erika G. Alin, „Dynamics of the Palestinian Uprising: An Assessment of Causes, Character, and Consequences“, Comparative Politics, 26 (July 1994), 494; New York Times, 8 March 1994, p. A15; James Peacock, „The Impact of Islam“, Wilson Quarterly, 5 (Spring 1981), 142; Tamara, Indonesia in the Wake of Islam, p. 22.

178

Oliver Roy, The Failure of Political Islam (London: Tauris, 1994), p. 49ff; New York Times, 19 January 1992, p. E3; Washington Post, 21 November 1990, p. Al. Вж. Gilles Keppel, The Revenge of God: The Resurgence of Islam, Christianity and Judaism in the Modern World (University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1994), p. 32; Farida Faouzia Charfi, „When Galileo Meets Allah“, New Perspectives Quarterly, 11 (Spring 1994), 30; Esposito, Islamic Threat, p. 10.

179

Mahnaz Ispahani, „Varieties of Muslim Experience“, Wilson Quarterly, 13 (August 1989), 72.

180

Saad Eddin Ibhrahim, „Appeal of Islamic Fundamentalism“, (доклад от конференция за исляма и политиката на съвременния мюсюлмански свят, организирана в Харвард, 15–16 октомври 1985), р. 9–10 и „Islamic Militancy as a Social Movement: The Case of Two Groups in Egypt“, в Dessouki, ed., Islamic Resurgence, pp. 128–131.

181

Washington Post, 26 October 1980, p. 23; Peacock, „Impact of Islam“, p. 140; Ilkay Sunar and Binnaz Toprak, „Islam in Politics: The Case of Turkey“, Government and Opposition, 18 (Autumn 1983), 436; Richard W. Bulliet, The Israeli-PLO Accord: The Future of the Islamic Movement, Foreign Affairs, 72 (Nov./Dec. 1993), 42.

182

Ernest Gellner, „Up from Imperialism“, New Republic, 22 May 1989, p. 35; John Murray Brown, „Tansu Ciller and the Question of Turkish Identity“, World Policy Journal, 11 (Fall 1994), 58; Roy, Failure of Political Islam, p. 53.

183

Fouad Ajarni, „The Impossible Life of Muslim Liberalism“, New Republic, 2 June 1986, p. 27.

184

Clement Moore Henry, „The Mediterranean Debt Crescent“, (draft), p. 346; Mark N. Katz, „Emerging Patterns in the International Relations of Central Asia“, Central Asian Monitor, (No. 2, 1994), 27; Mehrdad Haghayeghi, „Islamic Revival in the Central Asian Republics“, Central Asian Survey, 13 (No. 2, 1994), 255.

185

New YorkTimes, 10 April 1989, p. A3; 22 December 1992, p. 5; Economist, 10 October 1992, p. 41.

186

Economist, 20 July 1991, p. 35; 21 December 1991 — 3 January 1992, p. 40; Mahfulzul Hoque Choudhury, „Nationalism, Religion, and Politics in Bangladesh“, в Rafiuddin Ahmed, ed., Bangladesh: Society, Religion and Politics (Chittagong: South Asia Studies Group, 1985), p. 68; New York Times, 30 November 1994, p. A14; Wall Street Journal, 1 March 1995, p. 1,A6.

187

Donald L. Horowitz, „The Qur’an and the Common Law: Islamic Law Reform and the Theory of Legal Change“, American Journal of Comparative Law, 42 (Spring and Summer 1994), 234ff.

188

Dessouki, „Islamic Resurgence“, p. 23.

189

Daniel Pipes, In the Path of God: Islam and Political Power (New York: Basic Books, 1983), pp. 282–283, 290-292; John Barrett Kelly, Arabia, the Gulf and the West (New York: Basic Books, 1980), pp. 261, 423, както е цитирано от Pipes, Path of God, p. 291.

190

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: the 1992 Revision (New York: United Nations, 1993), table A18; World Bank, World Development Report 1995 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995), table 25; Jean Bourgeois-Pichat „Le Nombre des Hommes: Etat et Prospective“, в Albert Jacquard, ed., Les Scientifiques Parlent (Paris: Hachette, 1987), pp.154, 156.

191

Jack A. Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991) pp 24–39.

192

Herbert Moeller, „Youth as a Force in the Modern World“, Comparative Studies in Society and History, 10 (April 1968), 237-260; Lewis S. Feuer, „Generations and the Theory of Revolution“, Survey 18 (Summer 1972), pp. 161–188.

193

Peter W. Wilson and Douglas F. Graham, Saudi Arabia: The Coming Storm (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1994), pp. 28–29.

194

Philippe Fargues, „Demographic Explosion or Social Uphea-vel“, в Ghassen Salame, ed., Democracy Without Democrats? The Renewal of Politics in the Muslim World (London: I. B. Tauris 1994) pp. 158-162; 175–177.

195

Economist, 29 August 1981, p. 40; Denis Dragounski, „Threshold of Violence“, Freedom Review, 26 (March/April 1995), 11.

196

Andreas Papandreou, „Europe Turns Left“, New Perspectives Quarterly, 11 (Winter 1994), 53; Vuk Draskovic, цитиран в Janice A. Brown, „Islam in the Balkans“, Freedom Review, 22 (Nov./Dec. 1991), 31; F. Stephen Larrabee, „Instability and Change in the Balkans“, Survival, 34 (Summer 1992), 43; Misha Glenny, „Heading Off War in the Southern Balkans“, Foreign Affairs, 74 (May/June 1995), 102–103.

197

Ali Al-Amin Mazrui, Cultural Forces in World Politics (London; James Currey, 1990), p. 13.

198

Вж. например Economist, 16 November 1991, p. 45,6 May 1995, p. 36.

199

Ronald B. Palmer and Thomas J. Reckford, Building ASEAN: 20 Years of South-east Asian Cooperation (New York: Praeger, 1987), p. 109; Economist, 23 July 1994, pp. 31–32.

200

Barry Buzan and Gerald Segal, „Rethinking East Asian Security“, Survival, 36 (Summer 1994), 16.

201

Far Eastern Economic Review, 11 August 1994, p. 34.

202

Интервю на Datsuk Sen Mahathir bin Mohamad от Малайзия и Kenichi Ohmae, pp. 3, 7; Rafidah Azia, New York Times, 12 February 1991, p. D6.

203

Japan Times, 7 November 1994, p. 19; Economist, 19 November 1994, p. 37.

204

Murray Weidenbaum, „Greater China: A New Economic Colossus?“, Washington Quarterly, 16 (Autumn 1993), 78–80.

205

Wall Street Journal, 30 September 1994, p. A8; New York Times, 17 February 1995, p. A6.

206

Economist, 8 October 1994, p. 44; Andres Serbin, Towards an Association of Caribbean States: Raising Some Awkward Questions, Journal of Interamerican Studies, 36 (Winter 1994), 61–90.

207

Far Eastern Economic Review, 5 July 1990, pp. 24–25, 5 September 1991, pp. 26-27; New York Times, 16 February 1992, p. 16; Economist, 15 January 1994, p. 38; Robert D. Hormats, „Making Regionalism Safe“, Foreign Affairs, 73 (March/April 1994), 102-103; Economist, 10 June 1994, pp. 47-48; Boston Globe, 5 February 1994, p. 7. 3a Mercosur вж. Luigi Manzetti, „The Political Economy of MERCOSUR“, Journal of Interamerican Studies, 35 (Winter 1993/94), 101–141 и Felix Pena, „New Approaches to Economic Integration in the Southern Cone“, Washington Quarterly, 18 (Summer 1995), 113–122.

208

New YorkTimes, 8 April 1994, p. A3, 13 June 1994, pp. Dl, D5, 4 January 1995, p. A8; Mahathi, интервю с Ohmae, pp. 2, 5; „Asian Trade New Directions“, AMEXBank Review, 20 (22 March 1993), 1–7.

209

Вж. Brian Pollins, „Does Trade Still Follow the Flag?“ American Political Science Review, 83 (June 1989), 465-480; Joanne Gowa. and Edward D. Mansfield „Power Politics and International Trade“, American Political Science Review, 87 (June 1993), 408–421 и David M. Rowe, „Trade and Security in International Relations“, Ohio State University, 15 September 1994).

210

Sidney W. Mintz, „Can Haiti Change?“ Foreign Affairs, 75 (Jan./Feb. 1995), 73; Ernesto Perez Balladares and Joycelyn McCalla, цитирани в „Haiti’s Traditions of Isolation Makes U.S. Task Harder“, Washington Post, 25 July 1995, p. Al.

211

Economist, 23 October 1993, p. 53.

212

Boston Globe, 21 March 1993, pp. 1, 16, 17; Economist, 19 November 1994, p. 23, 11 June 1994, p. 90. Приликата между Турция и Мексико в това отношение е посочена от Barry Buzan, „New Patterns of Global Security in the Twenty-first Century“, International Affairs, 67 (July 1991), 449 и Jagdish Bhagwati, The World Trading System at Risk (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991), p. 72.

213

Вж. Marquis de Custine, Empire of the Czar: A Journey Through Eternal Russia (New York: Doubleday, 1989, първоначално публикувана в Париж през 1844), passim.

214

P. Ya. Chaadayey, Articles and Letters (Moscow: 1989), p.l78 и N. Ya. Danilevskiy, Russia and Europe (Moscow: 1991), pp. 267–268, цитиран в Sergei Vladislavovich Chugrov, „Russia between East and West“, в Steve Hirsh, ed., MEMO 3: In Search of Answers in the Post-Soviet Era (Washington, D.C.: Bureau of National Affairs, 1992), p. 138.

215

Вж. Leon Aron, „The Battle for the Soul of Russian Foreign Policy“, The American Enterprise, 3 (Nov./Dec. 1992), lOff; Alexei G. Arbatov, „Russian’s Foreign Policy Alternatives“, International Security, 18 (Fall 1993), 5ff.

216

Sergei Stankevich, „Russia in Search of Itself“, National Interest, 28 (Summer 1992), 48–9.

217

Albert Motivans, „’Openness to the West’ in European Russia“, RFE/RL Research Report, 1 (27 November 1992), 60–62. Учените са изчислили разпределението на гласовете по различни начини с незначителни разлики в резултатите. Аз съм се осланял на анализа на Сергей Чугров, „Political Tendencies in Russia’s Regions: Evidence from the 1993 Parliamentary Elections“ (непубликуван доклад, Harvard University, 1994).

218

Chugrov, „Russia Between“, p. 140.

219

Samuel P. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1968), pp. 350–351.

220

Duygo Bazoglu Sezer, „Turkey’s Grand Strategy Facing a Dilemma“, International Spectator, 27 (Jan./March 1992), 24.

221

Clyde Haberman, „On Iraq’s Other Front“, New York Times Magazine, 18 November 1990, p. 42;.Bruce R. Kuniholm, „Turkey and the West“, Foreign Affairs, 70 (Spring 1991), 35–36.

222

Ian Lesser, „Turkey and the West after the Gulf War“, International Spectator, 27 (Jan./March 1992), 33.

223

Financial Times, 9 March 1992, p. 2; New York Times, 5 April 1992, p. E3; Tansu Ciller, „The Role of Turkey in «the New World»“, Strategic Review, 22 (Winter 1994), p. 9; Haberman, „Iraq’s Other Front“, p. 44; John Murray Brown, „Tansu Ciller and the Question of Turkish Identity“, World Policy Journal, 11 (Fall 1994), 58.

224

Sezer, „Turkey’s Grand Strategy“, p. 27; Washington Post, 22 March 1992; New York Times, 19 June 1994, p. 4.

225

New York Times, 4 August 1993, p. A3; 19 June 1994, p. 4; Philip Robins, „Between Sentiment and Self-interest: Turkey’s Policy toward Azerbaijan and the Central Asian States“, Middle East Journal, Al (Autumn 1993), 593-610; Economist, 17 June 1995, pp. 38–39.

226

Bahri Yilmaz, „Turkey’s New Role in International Politics“, Aussenpolitik, 45 (January 1994), 94.

227

Eric Rouleau, „The Challenges to Turkey“, Foreign Affairs, 72 (Nov./Dec. 1993), 119.

228

Rouleau, „Challenges“, pp. 120-121; New York Times, 26 March 1989, p.l4.

229

Ibid.

230

Brown, „Question of Turkish Identity“, p. 58.

231

Sezer, „Turkey’s Grand Strategy“, pp. 29–30.

232

Ciller, „Turkey in ’the New World’“, p. 9; Brown, „Question of Turkish Identity“, p. 56; Tansu Ciller, „Turkey and NATO: Stability in the Vortex of Change“, NATO Review, 42 (April 1994), 6; Suleyman Demirel, BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, 2 February 1994. За други употреби на метафората с моста вж. Bruce R. Kuniholm, „Turkey and the West“, Foreign Affairs, 70 (Spring 1991), 39; Lesser, „Turkey and the West“, p. 33.

233

Octavio Paz, „The Border of Time“, интервю с Nathan Gardels, New Perspectives Quarterly, 8 (Winter 1991), 36.

234

За израз на тази загриженост вж. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Free Trade with an Unfree Society: A Commitment and its Consequences, National Interest, (Summer 1995), 28–33.

235

Financial Times, 11–12 September 1993, p. 4; New York Times, 16 August 1992, p. 3.

236

Economist, 23 July 1994, p. 35; Irene Moss, Human Rights Commissioner (Australia), New York Times, 16 August 1992, p. 3; Economist, 23 July 1994, p. 35; Boston Globe, 7 July 1993, p. 2; Cable News Network, News Report, 16 December 1993; Richard Higgott, „Closing a Branch Office of Empire: Australian Foreign Policy and the UK at Century’s End“, International Affairs, 70 (January 1994), 58.

237

Jat Sujamiko, The Australian, 5 May 1993, p. 18, цитиран в Higgott, „Closing a Branch“, p. 62; Higgott, „Closing a Branch“, p. 63; Economist, 12 December 1993, p. 34.

238

Интервю с Kenichi Ohmae, 24 October 1994, pp. 5–6. Вж. също Japan Times, 7 November 1994, p. 19.

239

Бившият посланик Ричард Улкот (Австралия), New York Times, 16 August 1992, p. 3.

240

Paul Kelly, „Reinventing Australia“, National Interest, 30 (Winter 1992), 66; Economist, 11 December 1993, p. 34; Higgott, „Closing a Branch“, p. 58.

241

Lee Kuan Yew, цитиран в Higgott, „Closing a Branch“, p. 49.

242

Вж. Economist, 14 January 1995, p. 45; 26 November 1994, p. 56, където се резюмира статията на Жупе в Le Monde, 18 November 1994; New York Times, 4 September 1994, p. 11.

243

Michael Howard, „Lessons of the Cold War“, Survival, 36 (Winter 1994), 102-103; Pierre Behar, „Central Europe: The New Lines of Fracture“, Geopolitique, 39 (August 1992), 42; Max Jakobson, „Collective Security in Europe Today“, Washington Quarterly, 18 (Spring 1995), 69; Max Beloff, „Fault Lines and Steeples: The Divided Loyalties of Europe“, National Interest, 23 (Spring 1991), 78.

244

Andreas Oplatka, „Vienna and the Mirror of History“, Geopolitique, 35 (Autumn 1991), 25; Vytautas Landsbergis, „The Choice“, Geopolitique, 35 (Autumn 1991), 3; New York Times, 23 April 1995, p. 5E.

245

Carl Bildt, „The Baltic Litmus Test“, Foreign Affairs, 1Ъ (Sept./Oct. 1994), 84.

246

New York Times, 15 June 1995, p. AlO.

247

RFE/RL Research Bulletin, 10(16 March 1993), 1, 6.

248

William D. Jackson, „Imperial Temptations: Ethnics Abroad“, Orbis, 38 (Winter 1994), 5.

249

Ian Brzezinski, New York Times, 13 July 1994, p. A8.

250

John F. Mearsheimer, „The Case for a Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent: Debate“, Foreign Affairs, 72 (Summer 1993), 50–66.

251

New York Times, 31 January 1994, p. A8.

252

Цитирано в Ola Tunander „New European Dividing Lines?“ във Valter Angell, ed., Norway Facing a Changing Europe: Perspectives and Options (Oslo: Norwegian Foreign Policy Studies No. 79, Fridtjof Nansen Institute et al., 1992), p. 55.

253

John Morrison, „Pereyaslav and After: The Russian-Ukrainian Relationship“, International Affairs, 69 (October 1993), 677.

254

John King Fairbank, ed., The Chinese World Order: Traditional China’s Foreign Relations (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1968), pp. 2–3.

255

Perry Link, „The Old Man’s New China“, New York Review of Books, 9 June 1994, p. 32.

256

Perry Link, „China’s ’Core’ Problem“, Daedalus, 122 (Spring 1993), 205; Weiming Tu, „Cultural China: The Periphery as the Center“, Daedalus, 120 (Spring 1991), 22; Economist, 8 July 1995, pp. 31–32.

257

Economist, 27 November 1993, p. 33; 17 July 1993, p. 61.

258

Economist, 27 November 1993, p. 33; Yoichi Funabashi, „The Asianization of Asia“, Foreign Affairs, 72 (Nov./Dec. 1993), 80. Вж. Murray Weidenbaum and Samuel Hughes, The Bamboo Network (New York: Free Press, 1996).

259

Christopher Gray, цитиран в Washington Post, 1 December 1992, p. A30; Lee Kuan Yew, цитиран в Maggie Farley, „The Bamboo Network“, Boston Globe Magazine, 17 April 1994, p. 38; International Herald Tribune, 23 November 1993.

260

International Herald Tribune, 23 November 1993; George Hicks and J. A. C. Mackie, „A Question of Identity: Despite Media Hype, They Are Firmly Settled in Southeast Asia“, Far Eastern Economic Review, 14 July 1994, p. 47.

261

Economist, 16 April 1994, p. 71; Nicholas D. Kristof, „The Rise of China“, Foreign Affairs, 72 (Nov./Dec. 1993), 48; Gerrit W. Gong, „China’s Fourth Revolution“, Washington Quarterly, 17 (Winter 1994) 37; Wall Street Journal, 17 May 1993, p. A7A; Murray L. Weidenbaum, Greater China: The Next Economic Superpower? (St. Louis: Washington University Center for the Study of American Business, Contemporary Issues Series 57, February 1993), pp. 2–3.

262

Steven Mufson, Washington Post, 14 August 1994, p. A30; Newsweek, 19 July 1993, p. 24; Economist, 7 May 1993, p. 35.

263

Вж. Walter С Clemens, Jr. and Jun Zhan, „Chiang Ching-Kuo’s Role in the ROC-PRC Reconciliation“, American Asian Review, 12 (Spring 1994), 151–154.

264

Koo Chen Foo, цитиран в Economist, 1 May 1993, p. 31; Link, „Old Man’s New China“, p. 32. Вж. „Cross-Strait Relations: Historical Lessons“, Free China Review, 44 (October 1994), 42-52; Gong, „China’s Fourth Revolution“, p. 39; Economist, 2 July 1994, p. 18; Gerald Segal, „China’s Changing Shape: The Middle Kingdom?“ Foreign Affairs, 73 (May/June 1994), 49; Ross H. Munro, „Giving Taipei a Place at the Table“, Foreign Affairs, 73 (Nov./Dec. 1994), 115; Wall Street Journal, 17 May 1993, p. A7A; Free China Journal, 29 July 1994, p. 1.

265

Economist, 10 July 1993, pp. 28-29; 2 April 1994, pp. 34-35; International Herald Tribune, 23 November 1993; Wall Street Journal, 17 May 1993, p. A7A.

266

Ira M. Lapidus, History of Islamic Societies (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1988), p. 3.

267

Mohamed Zahi Mogherbi, „Tribalism, Religion and the Challenge of Political Participation: The Case of Libya“, (доклад на конференция за демократичните предизвикателства в арабския свят, Кайро, 22–27 септември 1992), pp. 1, 9; Economist, (Survey of the Arab East), 6 February 1988, p. 7; Adlan A. El-Hardallo, „Sufism and Tribalism: The Case of Sudan“, (доклад на конференция за демократичните предизвикателства в арабския свят, Кайро, 22–27 септември 1992), р.2; Economist, 30 October 1987, p. 45; John Duke Anthony, „Saudi Arabia: From Tribal Society to Nation-State“, в Ragaei El Mellakh and Dorothea H. El Mellakh, eds., Saudi Arabia, Energy, Developmental Planning, and Industrialization (Lexington, MA: Lexington, 1982), pp. 93–94.

268

Yalman Onaran, „Economics and Nationalism: The Case of Muslim Central Asia“, Central Asian Survey, 13 (No. 4, 1994), 493; Denis Dragounski, „Threshold of Violence“, Freedom Review, 26 (March/April 1995), 12.

269

Barbara Daly Metcalf, „The Comparative Study of Muslim Societies“, Items, 40 (March 1986), 3.

270

Metcalf, „Muslim Societies“, p. 3.

271

Boston Globe, 2 April 1995, p. 2. 3a PAIC изобщо вж. „The Popular Arab and Islamic Conference (PAIC): A New ’Islamist International’?“ TransState Islam, 1 (Spring 1995), 12–16.

272

Bernard Schechterman and Bradford R. McGuinn, „Linkages Between Sunni and Shi’i Radical Fundamentalist Organizations: A New Variable in Middle Eastern Politics?“ The Political Chronicle, 1 (February 1989), 22-34; New York Times, 6 December 1994, p. 5.

273

Най-големият ислямски университет в света. — Б. пр.

274

Georgi Arbatov, „Neo-Bolsheviks of the I.M.F.“, New York Times, 7 May 1992, p. A27.

275

Схващания на севернокорейци, резюмирани от американски високопоставен политик, Washington Post, 12 юни 1994, p. CI; индийски генерал, цитиран в Les Aspin, „From Deterrence to Denuking: Dealing with Proliferation in the 199O’s“, Memorandum, 18 February 1992, p. 6.

276

Lawrence Freedman, „Great Powers, Vital Interests and Nuclear Weapons“, Survival, 36 (Winter 1994), 37; Les Aspin, Remarks, National Academy of Sciences, Committee on International Security and Arms Control, 7 December 1993, p. 3.

277

Цитирано в Stanley Norris, Boston Globe, 25 November 1995, pp. 1, 7; Alastair Iain Johnston, „China’s New ’Old Thinking’: The Concept of Limited Deterrence“, International Security, 20 (Winter 1995–96), 21–23.

278

Philip L. Ritcheson, „Iranian Military Resurgence: Scope, Motivations, and Implications for Regional Security“, Armed Forces and Society, 21 (Summer 1995), 575–576. Warren Christopher Address, Kennedy School of Government, 20 January 1995; Time, 16 December 1991, p. 47; Ali AI-Amin Mazrai, Cultural Forces in World Politics (London: J. Currey, 1990), pp. 220, 224.

279

New York Times, 15 November 1991, p. Al; New York Times, 21 February 1992, p. A9; 12 December 1993, p. 1; Jane Teufel Dreyer, „U.S./China Military Relations: Sanctions on Rapprochement?“ In Depth, 1 (Spring 1991), 17-18; Time, 16 December 1991, p. 48; Boston Globe, 5 Februaryl994, p. 2; Monte R. Bullard, „U.S.-China Relations: The Strategic Calculus“, Parameters, 23 (Summer 1993), 88.

280

Отбелязаните с апостроф доставки не са потвърдени.

281

Richard A. Bitzinger, „Arms to Go: Chinese Arms Sales to the Third World“, International Security, 17 (Fall 1992), p. 87; Philip Ritcheson, „Iranian Military Resurgence“, pp. 576, 578; Washington Post, 31 October 1991, p. Al, A24; Time, 16 December 1991, p. 47; New York Times, 18 April 1995, p. A8; 28 September 1995, p. 1; 30 September 1995, p. 4; Monte Bullard, „U.S.-China Relations“, p. 88, New York Times, 22 June 1995, p. 1; Gill, „Curbing Beijing’s Arms“, p. 388; New York Times, 8 April 1993, p. A9; 20 June 1993, p. 6.

282

John E. Reilly, „The Public Mood at Mid-Decade“, Foreign Policy, 98 (Spring 1995), p. 83; Executive Order 12930, 29 September 1994; Executive Order 12938, 14 November 1994. Същите тези са развити в Executive Order 12735, 16 November 1990, издаден от президента Буш и обявяващ извънредно положение по отношение на химическите и биологическите оръжия.

283

James Fallows, „The Panic Gap: Reactions to North Korea’s Bomb“, National Interest, 38 (Winter 1994), 40-45; David Sanger, New York Times, 12 June 1994, pp. 1, 16.

284

New York Times, 26 December 1993, p. 1.

285

Washington Post, 12 May 1995, p. 1.

286

Bilahari Kausikan, „Asia’s Different Standard“, Foreign Policy, 92 (Fall 1993), 28–29.

287

Economist, 30 July 1994, p. 31; 5 March 1994, p. 35; 27 August 1994, p. 51; Yash Ghai, „Human Rights and Governance: The Asian Debate“, (Asia Foundation Center for Asian Pacific Affairs, Occasional Paper No. 4, November 1994), p. 14.

288

Richard M. Nixon, Beyond Peace (New York: Random House, 1994), pp. 127–128.

289

Economist, 4 February 1995, p. 30.

290

Charles J. Brown, „In the Trenches: The Battle Over Rights“, Freedom Review, 24 (Sept./Oct. 1993), 9; Douglas W. Payne, „Showdown in Vienna“, ibid., pp. 6–7.

291

Charles Norchi, „The Ayatollah and the Author: Rethinking Human Rights“, Yale Journal of World Affairs, 1 (Summer 1989), 16; Kausikan, „Asia’s Different Standard“, p. 32.

292

Richard Cohen, The Earth Times, 2 August 1993, p. 14.

293

Гласуването в четирите кръга на изборите е както следва:

Първи кръгВтори кръгТрети кръгЧетвърти кръг
Пекин32374043
Сидни30303745
Манчестър111311
Берлин99
Истанбул7
Въздържали се11
Общо89898989

294

NewYorkTimes, 19 September 1993, p. 4E; 24 September 1993, pp. 1, B9, B16; 9 September 1994, p. A26; Economist, 21 September 1993, p. 75; 18 September 1993, pp. 37-38; Financial Times, 25–26 September 1993, p. 11; Straits Times, 14 October 1993, p. 1.

295

Цифрите и цитатите са от Myron Weiner, Global Migration Crisis (New York: HarperCollins, 1995), pp. 21–28.

296

Weiner, Global Migration Crisis, p. 2.

297

Stanley Hoffmann, „The Case for Leadership“, Foreign Policy, 81 (Winter 1990–91), 30.

298

Вж. В. A. Roberson, „Islam and Europe: An Enigma or a Myth?“ Middle East Journal, 48 (Spring 1994), p. 302; New York Times, 5 December 1993, p. 1; 5 May 1995, p. 1; Joel Klotkin and Andries van Agt, „Bedouins: Tribes That Have Made it“, New Perspectives Quarterly, 8 (Fall 1991), p. 51; Judith Miller, „Strangers at the Gate“, New York Times Magazine, 15 September 1991, p. 49.

299

International Herald Tribune, 29 May 1990, p. 5; New York Times, 15 September 1994, p. A21. Френското допитване е спонсорирано от френското правителство, а немското — от Американския еврейски комитет.

300

Вж. Hans-George Betz, „The New Politics of Resentment: Radical Right-Wing Populist Parties in Western Europe“, Comparative Politics, 25 (July 1993), 413^27.

301

International Herald Tribune, 28 June 1993, p. 3; Wall Street Journal, 23 May 1994, p. Bl; Lawrence H. Fuchs, „The Immigration Debate: Little Room for Big Reforms“, American Experiment, 2 (Winter 1994), 6.

302

James С Clad, „Slowing the Wave“, Foreign Policy, 1995 (Summer 1994), 143; Rita J. Simon and Susan H. Alexander, The Ambivalent Welcome: Print Media, Public Opinion and Immigration (West-port, CT: Praeger, 1993), p. 46.

303

New York Times, 11 June 1995, p. Е14.

304

Jean Raspail, The Camp of the Saints (New York: Scribner, 1975) и Jean-Claude Chesnais, Le Crepuscule de VOccident: Demographie et Politique (Paris: Robert Laffont, 1995); Pierre Lellouche, цитиран в Miller, „Strangers at the Gate“, p. 80.

305

Книгата на Распай „Le Camp des Saints“ e публикувана за пръв път през 1973 г. (Paris, Editions Robert Laffront) и е преиздадена през 1985 г., когато се засилва безпокойството от имиграцията във Франция. Този роман беше представен по драматичен начин на вниманието на публиката от Матю Конъли и Пол Кенеди през 1994 г., когато в Съединените щати нарасна тревогата от същия проблем, в статията „Must It Be the Rest Against the West?“ Atlantic Monthly, v. 274 (Dec. 1994), pp. 61ff, а предговорът на Распай към френското издание от 1985 г. е преведен на английски в The Social Contract, v. 4 (Winter 1993–94), pp. 115–117.

306

Philippe Fargues, „Demographic Explosion or Social Upheavel?“ в Ghassan Salame, ed., Democracy Without Democrats? The Renewal of Politics in the Muslim World (London: I. B. Taurus, 1994), с 157ff.

307

Adda B. Bozeman, Strategic Intelligence and Statecraft: Selected Essays (Washington: Brassey’s (US), 1992), p. 50; Barry Buzan, „New Patterns of Global Security in the Twenty-first Century“, International Affairs, 67 (July 1991), 448^449.

308

John L. Esposito, The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992), p. 46.

309

Bernard Lewis, Islam and the West (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993), p. 13.

310

Esposito, Islamic Threat, p. 44.

311

Daniel Pipes, In the Path of God: Islam and Political Power (New York: Basic Books, 1983), 102–103, 169-173; Lewis F. Richardson, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels (Pittsburgh: Boxwood Press, 1960), pp. 235–237.

312

Ira M. Lapidus, A History of Islamic Societies (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988), pp. 41-42; Princess Anna Comnena, цитирана в Karen Armstrong, Holy War: The Crusades and Their Impact on Today’s World (New York: Doubleday-Anchor, 1991), pp.3^1 и в Arnold J. Toynbee, Study of History (London: Oxford University Press, 1954), VIII, p. 390.

313

Barry Buzan, „New Patterns“, pp. 448-449; Bernard Lewis, „The Roots of Muslim Rage: Why So Many Muslims Deeply Resent the West and Why Their Bitterness Will Not Be Easily Mollified“, Atlantic Monthly, 266 (September 1990), 60.

314

Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, „Cybernetic Colonialism and the Moral Search“, New Perspectives Quarterly, 11 (Spring 1994), 19; M. J. Akbar, цитиран в Time, 15 June 1992, p. 24; Abdelwahab Belwahl, ibid., p. 26.

315

William H. McNeill, „Epilogue: Fundamentalism and the World of the 1990’s“, в Martin E. Marty and R. Scott Appleby, eds., Fundamentalisms and Society: Reclaiming the Sciences, the Family, and Education (Chicago: University of Chicago Press), p. 569.

316

Fatima Mernissi, Islam and Democracy: Fear of the Modern World (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1992).

317

За подбор от такива доклади вж. Economist, I August 1992, pp. 34–35.

318

John Е. Reilly, ed., American Public Opinion and U. S. Foreign Policy 1995 (Chicago: Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, 1995), p. 21; Le Monde, 20 September 1991, p. 12, цитиран в Margaret Blunden, „Insecurity on Europe’s Southern Flank“, Survival, 36 (Summer 1994), 138; Richard Morin, Washington Post (National Weekly Ed.), 8–14 November 1993, p. 37; Foreign Policy Association, National Opinion’ Ballot Report, November 1994, p. 5.

319

Boston Globe, 3 June 1994, p. 18; John L. Esposito, „Symposium: Resurgent Islam in the Middle East“, Middle East Policy 3 (No. 2, 1994), 9; International Herald Tribune, 10 May 1994, pp. 1, 4; Christian Science Monitor, 24 February 1995, p. 1.

320

Robert Ellsworth, Wall Street Journal, 1 March 1995, p. 15; William T. Johnsen, NATO’s New Front Line: The Growing Importance of the Southern Tier (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Startegic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1992), p. vii; Robin Laird, French Security Polticy in Transition: Dynamics of Continuity and Change (Washington, D.C.: Institute for National Startegic Studies, McNair paper 38, March 1995), pp. 50–52.

321

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Islam and Revolution (Berkeley, CA: Mizan Press, 1981), p. 305.

322

Economist, 23 November 1991, p. 15.

323

Barry Buzan and Gerald Segal, „Rethinking East Asian Security“, Survival, 36 (Summer 1994), 15.

324

Can China’s Armed Forces Win the Next War?, откъси, преведени и публикувани в Ross H. Munro „Eavesdropping on the Chinese Military: Where It Expects War — Where It Doesn’t“, Orbis, 38 (Summer 1994), 365. Авторите на този документ освен това смятат, че употребата на военна сила срещу Тайван „би било едно наистина необмислено решение“. .

325

Buzan and Segal, „Rethinking East Asian Security“, p. 7; Richard K. Berts, „Wealth, Power and Instability: East Asia and the United States After the Cold War“, International Security, 18 (Winter 1993/94), 34-77; Aaron L. Friedberg, „Ripe for Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in Multipolar Asia“, International Security, 18 (Winter 1993/94), 5–33.

326

Can China’s Armed Forces Win the Next War? Откъси, преведени в Munro, „Eavesdropping on the Chinese“, pp. 355ff; New York Times, 16 November 1993, p. A6; Friedberg, „Ripe for Rivalry“, p. 7.

327

Desmond Ball, „Arms and Affluence: Military Acquisitions in the Asia-Pacific Region“, International Security, 18 (Winter 1993/94), 95-111; Michael T. Klare, „The Next Great Arms Race“, Foreign Affairs, 72 (Summer 1993), 137ff; Buzan and Segal, „Rethinking East Asian Security“, pp. 8-11; Gerald Segal, „Managing New Arms Races in the Asia/Pacific“, Washington Quarterly, 15 (Summer 1992), 83-102; Economist, 20 February 1993, pp. 19–22.

328

Вж. напр. Economist, 26 June 1993, p. 75; 24 July 1995, p. 25; Time, 3 July 1995, pp. 30–31, а за Китай Jacob Heilbrunn, „The Next Cold War“, New Republic, 20 November 1995, pp. 27ff.

329

Трябва да се отбележи, че поне в Съединените щати същест-вува терминологична неяснота във връзка с отношенията между държавите. За „добри“ отношения се смятат приятелските, отношенията на сътрудничество; „лоши“ са враждебните, антагонис-тичните отношения. Тази употреба смесва две съвършено различни измерения: приятелство-враждебност и желаност-нежеланост. Тя отразява специфично американското допускане, че хармонията в международните отношения винаги е нещо добро, а конфликтът — винаги нещо лошо. Отъждествяването на добрите с приятелските отношения обаче е валидно само в случай, че конфликтът никога не е желан. Повечето американци смятат за нещо „добро“, че администрацията на Буш превърна отношенията с Ирак в „лоши“, обя-вявайки му война заради Кувейт. За да се избегне объркването дали „добро“ означава желано или хармонично и дали „лошо“ означава нежелано или враждебно, ще използвам „добро“ и „лошо“ само като обозначения на желано и нежелано. Любопитно е, макар и да е объркващо, че американците одобряват в своето общество cъперничеството между мнения, групи, партии, крила в правителството, бизнесгрупировки. Защо американците смятат, че конфликтът в собственото им общество е нещо добро, а, когато се разгръща между различни общества — нещо лошо, е изключително интересен въпрос, който никой не е изследвал сериозно, доколкото ми е известно.

330

За дискусии по различните видове търговски войни и кога те могат да доведат до въоръжени войни вж. David Rowe, Trade Wars and International Security: The Political Economy of International Economic Conflict (Working Paper No. 6, Project on the Changing Security Environment and American National Interests, John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, Harvard University, July 1994), pp. 7ff.

331

New York Times, 6 July 1993, pp. Al, A6; Time, 10 February 1992, p.l6ff.; Economist, 17 February 1990, pp. 21-24; Boston Globe, 25 November 1991, pp. 1, 8; Dan Oberdorfer, Washington Post, 1 March 1992, p. Al.

332

Цитат от New York Times, 21 April 1992, p. AlO; New York Times, 22 September 1991, p. E2; 21 April 1992, p. Al; 19 September 1991, p. A7; 1 August 1995, p. A2; International Herald Tribune, 24 August 1995, p. 4; China Post (Taipei), 26 August 1995, p. 2; New York Times, 1 August 1995, p. A2, цитиращ доклада на Дейвид Шамбо за интервюта в Пекин.

333

Donald Zagoria, American Foreign Policy Newsletter, October 1993, p. 3; Can China’s Armed Forces Win the Next War?, в Munro, „Eavesdropping on the Chinese Military“, p. 355ff.

334

Roger С Altaian, „Why Pressure Tokyo? The US-Japan Rift“, Foreign Affairs, 73 (May/June 1994), p. 3; Jeffrey Garten, „The Clinton Asia Policy“, International Economy, 8 (March/April 1994), 18.

335

Edward J. Lincoln, Japan’s Unequal Trade (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1990), pp. 2–3. Вж. С. Fred Bergsten and Marcus Noland, Reconcilable Differences? United States-Japan Economic Conflict (Washington: Institute for International Economics, 1993); Eisuke Sakakibara, „Less Like You“, International Economy, (April/May 1990), 36, който прави разлика между американската капиталистическа пазарна икономика и японската некапиталистиче-ска пазарна икономика; Marie Anchordoguy, „Japanese-American Trade Conflict and Supercomputers“, Political Science Quarterly, 109 (Spring 1994), 36, цитиращ Rudiger Dornbush, Paul Krugman, Edward J. Lincoln, and Mordechai. E. Kreinin; Eamonn Fingleton, „Japan’s Invisible Leviathan“, Foreign Affairs, 74 (March/April 1995), p. 70.

336

За сполучливо обобщение на различията в културата, ценностите, социалните връзки и отношенията вж. Seymour Martin Lipset, American Exceptionalism: A Double-Edged Sword (New York: W. W. Norton, 1996), chap. 7, „American Exceptionalism-Japanese Uniqueness.“

337

Washington Post, 5 May 1994, p. A38; Daily Telegraph, 6 May 1994, p. 16; Boston Globe, 6 May 1994, p. 11; New York Times, 13 February 1994, p. 10; Karl D. Jackson, „How to Rebuild America’s Stature in Asia“, Orbis, 39 (Winter 1995), 14; Yohei Kono, цитиран в Chalmers Johnson and E. B. Keehn, „The Pentagon’s Ossified Strategy“, Foreign Affairs, 74 (July/August 1995), 106.

338

New York Times, 2 May 1994, p. AlO.

339

Barry Buzan and Gerald Segal, „Asia: Skepticism About Optimism“, National Interest, 39 (Spring 1995), 83-84; Arthur Waldron, „Deterring China“, Commentary, 100 (October 1995), 18; Nicholas D. Kristof, „The Rise of China“, Foreign Affairs, 72 (Nov./Dec. 1993), 74.

340

Stephen P. Walt, „Alliance Formation in Southwest Asia: Balancing and Bandwagoning in Cold War Competition“, в Robert Jervis and Jack Snyder, eds., Dominoes and Bandwagons: Strategic Beliefs and Great Power Competition in the Eurasian Rimland (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991), pp. 53, 69.

341

Randall L. Schweller, „Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In“, International Security, 19 (Summer 1994), 72ff.

342

Lucian W. Pye, Dynamics of Factions and Consensus in Chinese Politics: A Model and Some Propositions (Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 1980), p. 120; Arthur Waldron, From War to Nationalism: China’s Turning Point, 1924–1925 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995), pp. 48^9, 212; Avery Goldstein, From Bandwagon to Balance-of-Power Politics: Structured Constraints in Politics in China, 1949–1978 (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press: 1991), pp. 5–6, 35ff. Вж. също Lucian W. Pye, „Social Science Theories in Search of Chinese Realities“, China Quarterly, 132 (December 1992), 1161–1171.

343

Samuel S. Kim and Lowell Dittmer, „Whither China’s Quest for National Identity“, в Lowell Dittmer and Samuel S. Kim, eds., China s Quest for National Identity (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1991), p. 240; Paul Dibb, Towards a New Balance of Power in Asia (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, Adelphi Paper 295, 1995), pp. 10-16; Roderick MacFarquhar, „The Post-Confucian Challenge“, Economist, 9 February 1980, pp. 67-72; Kishore Mahbubani, „’The Pacific Impulse,’“ Survival, 37 (Spring 1995), 117; James L. Richardson, „Asia-Pacific: The Case for Geopolitical Optimism“, National Interest, 38 (Winter 1994–95), 32; Paul Dibb, „Towards a New Balance“, p. 13. Вж. Nicola Baker and Leonard C. Sebastian, „The Problem with Parachuting: Strategic Studies and Security in the Asia/Pacific Region“, Journal of Strategic Studies, 18. (September 1995), 15ff за обширна дискусия по неприложимостта на европейски концепции в Азия, като например равновесието на силите и дилемата за сигурността.

344

Economist, 23 December 1995; 5 January 1996, pp. 39–40.

345

Richard K. Berts, „Vietnam’s Strategic Predicament“, Survival, 37 (Autumn 1995), 6Iff, 76.

346

New York Times, 12 November 1994, p. 6; 24 November 1994, p. A12; International Herald Tribune, 8 November 1994, p. 1; Michel Oksenberg, Washington Post, 3 September 1995, p. CI.

347

Jitsuo Tsuchiyama, „The End of the Alliance? Dilemmas in the U.S.-Japan Relations“, (Harvard University, John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, 1994), pp. 18–19.

348

Ivan P. Hall, „Japan’s Asia Card“, National Interest, 38 (Winter 1994–95), 26; Kishore Mahbubani, „The Pacific Impulse“, p. 117.

349

Mike M. Mochizuki, „Japan and the Strategic Quadrangle“, в Michael Mandelbaum, ed., The Strategic Quadrangle: Russia, China, Japan, and the United States in East Asia (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1995), pp. 130-139; допитване на Asahi Shimbon, публикувано в Christian Science Monitor, 10 January 1995, p. 7.

350

Financial Times, 10 September 1992, p. 6; Samina Yasmeen, „Pakistan’s Cautious Foreign Policy“, Survival, 36 (Summer 1994), pp. 121, 127-128; Bruce Vaughn, „Shifting Geopolitical Realities Between South, Southwest and Central Asia“, Central Asian Survey, 13 (No. 2, 1994), 313; Editorial, Hamshahri, 30 August 1994, pp.1, 4 в FBIS-NES-94-173, 2 September 1994, p. 77.

351

Graham E. Fuller, „The Appeal of Iran“, National Interest, 37 (Fall 1994), p. 95; Mu’ammar al-Qadhdhafi, Sermon, Tripoli, Libya, 13 March 1994, in FBIS-NES-94-049, 14 March 1994, p. 21.

352

Fereidun Fesharaki, East-West Center, Hawaii, цитиран в New York Times, 3 April 1994, p. E3.

353

Stephen J. Blank, Challenging the New World Order: The Arms Transfer Policies of the Russian Republic (Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, 1993), pp. 53–60.

354

International Herald Tribune, 25 August 1995, p. 5.

355

J. Mohan Malik, „India Copes with the Kremlin’s Fall“, Orbis, 37 (Winter 1993), 75.

356

Първата цивилизационна война (фр.). — Б. пр.

357

Mahdi Elmandjra, Der Spiegel, 11 February 1991, цитиран в Elmandjra, „Cultural Diversity: Key to Survival in the Future“, (First Mexican Congress on Future Studies, Mexico City, 26–27 September 1994), pp. 3,11.

358

David C. Rapoport, „Comparing Militant Fundamentalist Groups“, в Martin E. Marty and R. Scott Appleby, eds., Fundamentalisms and the State: Remaking Polities, Economies, and Militance (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993), p. 445.

359

Ted Galen Carpenter, „The Unintended Consequences of Afghanistan“, World Policy Journal, 11 (Spring 1994), 78–79, 81, 82; Anthony Hyman, „Arab Involvement in the Afghan War“, Beirut Review, 7 (Spring 1994), 78, 82; Mary Anne Weaver, „Letter from Pakistan: Children of the Jihad“, New Yorker, 12 June 1995, pp. 44-45; Washington Post, 24 June 1995, p. Al; New YorkTimes, 20 March 1995, p. 1; 28 March 1993, p. 14.

360

Tim Weiner, „Blowback from the Afghan Battlefield“, New York Times Magazine, 13 March 1994, p. 54.

361

Harrison J. Goldin, New YorkTimes, 28 August 1992, p. A25.

362

James Piscatori, „Religion and Realpolitik: Islamic Responses to the Gulf War“, в James Piscatori, ed., Islamic Fundamentalisms and the Gulf Crisis (Chicago: Fundamentalism Project, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 1991), p. 1, 6–7. Вж. също Fatima Mernissi, Islam and Democracy: Fear of the Modern World (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley), pp. 16–17.

363

Rami G. Khouri, „Collage of Comment: The Gulf War and the Mideast Peace; The Appeal of Saddam Hussein“, New Perspectives Quarterly, 8 (Spring 1991), 56.

364

Ann Mosely Lesch, „Contrasting Reactions to the Persian Gulf Crisis: Egypt, Syria, Jordan, and the Palestinians“, Middle East Journal, 45 (Winter 1991), p. 43; Time, 3 December 1990, p. 70; Kanan Makiva, Cruelty and Silence: War, Tyranny, Uprising and the Arab World (New York: W. W. Norton, 1993), pp.242ff.

365

Eric Evans, „Arab Nationalism and the Persian Gulf War“, Harvard Middle Eastern and Islamic Review, 1 (February 1994), p. 28; Sari Nusselbeh, цитиран в Time, 15 October 1990, pp. 54–55.

366

Karin Haggag, „One Year After the Storm“, Civil Society . (Cairo), 5 (May 1992), 12.

367

Boston Globe, 19 February 1991, p. 7; Safar al-Hawali, цитиран от Mamoun Fandy, New York Times, 24 November 1990, p. 21; крал Хюсеин, цитиран от David S. Landes, „Islam Dunk: the Wars of ч Muslim Resentment“, New Republic, 8 April 1991, pp. 15-16; Fatima Mernissi, Islam and Democracy, p. 102.

368

Safar Al-Hawali, „Infidels, Without, and Within“, New Perspectives Quarterly, 8 (Spring 1991), 51.

369

New York Times, 1 February 1991, p. A7; Economist, 2 February 1991, p. 32.

370

Washington Post, 29 January 1991, p. AlO; 24 February 1991, p. Bl; New York Times, 20 October 1990, p. 4.

371

Цитиран в Saturday Star (Johannesburg), 19 January 1991, p. 3; Economist, 26 January 1991, p. 31–33.

372

Султан на Египет (1138–1193). Завладява Сирия и участва в превземането на Ерусалим от християните през 1187 г. — Б. пр.

373

Sohail H. Hasmi, преглед на Mohammed Haikal, „Illusions of Triumph“, Harvard Middle Eastern and Islamic Review, 1 February 1994), 107; Mernissi, Islam and Democracy, p. 102.

374

Shibley Telhami, „Arab Public Opinion and the Gulf War“, Political Science Quarterly, 108 (Fall 1993), 451.

375

International Herald Tribune, 28 June 1993, p. 10.

376

Roy Licklider, „The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945–93“, American Political Science Review, 89 (September 1995), 685, който дефинира гражданските войни като „войни за идентичност“, и Samuel P. Huntington, „Civil Violence and the Process of Development“, in Civil Violence and the International System (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, Adelphi Paper No. 83, December 1971), 12–14, който изброява като пет главни характеристики на гражданските войни за идентичност: високата степен на поляризация, идеологическото двусмислие, сепаратизма, ожесточението и продължителността.

377

Тези оценки идват от материали в пресата и Ted Robert Gurr and Barbara Harff, Ethnic Conflict in World Politics (Boulder: Westview Press, 1994), pp. 160–165.

378

Richard H. Shultz, Jr. and William J. Olson, Ethnic and Religious Conflict: Emerging Threat to U.S. Security (Washington, D.C.: National Strategy Information Center), 17ff; H. D. S. Greenway, Boston Globe, 3 December 1992, p. 19.

379

Roy Licklider, „Settlements in Civil Wars“, p. 685; Gurr and Harff, Ethnic Conflict, p. 11; Trent N. Thomas, „Global Assessment of Current and Future Trends in Ethnic and Religious Conflict“, в Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. and Richard H. Shultz, Jr., eds., Ethnic Conflict and Regional Instability: Implications for U.S. Policy and Army Roles and Missions (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1994), p. 36.

380

Вж. Shultz and Olson, Ethnic and Religious Conflict, pp. 3-9; Sugata Bose, „Factors Causing the Proliferation of Ethnic and Religious Conflict“, в Pfaltzgraff and Shultz, Ethnic Conflict and Regional Instability, pp. 43-49; Michael E. Brown, „Causes and Implications of Ethnic Conflict“ в Michael E. Brown, ed., Ethnic Conflict and International Security (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993), pp. 3–26. За контрааргумента, че етническите конфликти не са се увеличили от края на Студената война, вж. Thomas, „Global Assessment of Current and Future Trends in Ethnic and Religious Conflict“, pp. 33^41.

381

Въстание (ар.). — Б. пр.

382

Ruth Leger Sivard, World Military and Social Expenditures 1993 (Washington, DC: World Priorities, Inc., 1993), pp. 20–22.

383

Десет от тях са племенни конфликти в Африка.

384

Десет от които са племенни конфликти в Африка.

385

Никое друго твърдение от статията ми във „Форин Афеърс“ не предизвика толкова много критики, колкото следното: „Ислямът има кървави граници.“ Направих това заключение на базата на преглед на броя на жертвите в междуцивилизационните войни. Количествените данни от всички независими източници категорично потвърждават валидността му. — Б. а.

386

James L. Payne, Why Nations Arm (Oxford: B. Blackwell, 1989), p. 124.

387

Christopher B. Stone, Westphalia and Hudaybiyya: A Survey of Islamic Perspectives on the Use of Force as Conflict Management Technique (Harvard University, pp. 27–31, и Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Michael Brecher and Sheila Moser, eds., Crises in the Twentieth Century (Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1988–89), II, 15, 161.

388

Gary Fuller, „The Demographic Backdrop to Ethnic Conflict: A Geographic Overview“, в Central Intelligence Agency, The Challenge of Ethnic Conflict to National and International Order in the 1990s: Geographic Perspectives (Washington, D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency, RTT 95–10039, October 1995), pp. 151–154.

389

New York Times, 16 October 1994, p. 3; Economist, 5 August 1995, p. 32.

390

United Nations Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1994 Revision (New York: United Nations, 1995), pp. 29, 51; Denis Dragounski, „Threshold of Violence“, Freedom Review, 26 (March/April 1995), 11.

391

Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1995), pp. 32-35; Branka Magas, The Destruction of Yugoslavia: Tracking the Breakup 1980–92 (London: Verso, 1993), pp. 6, 19.

392

Paul Mojzes, Yugoslavian Inferno: Ethnoreligious Warfare in the Balkans (New York: Continuum, 1994), pp. 95-96; Magas, Destruction of Yugoslavia, pp. 49-73; Aryeh Neier, „Kosovo Survives“, New York Review of Books, 3 February 1994, p. 26.

393

Aleksa Djilas, „A Profile of Slobodan Milosevic“, Foreign Affairs, 72 (Summer 1993), 83.

394

Woodward, Balkan Tragedy, pp. 33–35. Данните са от югославски преброяванията населението и от други източници; William Т. Johnsen, Deciphering the Balkan Enigma: Using History to Inform Policy (Carlisle Barracks: Strategic Studies Institute, 1993), p. 25, цитиращ Washington Post, 6 December 1992, p. C2; New York Times, 4 November 1995, p. 6.

395

Bogdan Denis Denitch, Ethnic Nationalism: The Tragic Death of Yugoslavia (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1994), pp. 108–109.

396

Payne, Why Nations Arm, pp. 125, 127.

397

Middle East International, 20 January 1995, p. 2.

398

Roy Licklider, „The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945–93“, American Political Science Review, 89 (September 1995), 685.

399

Вж. Barry R. Posen, „The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict“, в Michael E. Brown, ed., Ethnic Conflict and International Security (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993), pp. 103–124.

400

Roland Dannreuther, Creating New States in Central Asia (International Institute for Strategic Studies/Brassey’s, Adelphi Paper No. 288. March 1994), pp. 30-31; Dodjoni Atovullo, цитиран в Urzula Doroszewska, „The Forgotten War: What Really Happened in Tajikistan“, Uncaptive Minds, 6 (Fall 1993), 33.

401

Economist, 26 August 1995, p. 43; 20 January 1996, p. 21.

402

Boston Globe, 8 November 1993, p. 2; Brian Murray, „Peace in the Caucasus: Multi-Ethnic Stability in Dagestan“, Central Asian Survey, 13 (No. 4, 1994), 514-515; New York Times, 11 November 1991, p. A7; 17 December 1994, p.7; Boston Globe, 7 September 1994, p. 16; 17 December 1994, pp. Iff.

403

Raju G. C. Thomas, „Secessionist Movements in South Asia“, Survival, 36 (Summer 1994), 99–101, 109; Stefan Wagstyl, „Kashmiri Conflict Destroys a ’Paradise,’“ Financial Times, 23–24 October 1993, p.3.

404

Alija Izetbegovic, The Islamic Declaration (1991), pp. 23, 33.

405

New York Times, 4 February 1995, p. 4; 15 June 1995, p. A12; 16 June 1995, p. A12.

406

Economist, 20 January 1996, p. 21; New York Times, 4 February 1995, p. 4.

407

Stojan Obradovic, „Tuzla: The Last Oasis“, Uncaptive Minds, 1 (Fall/Winter 1994), 12–13.

408

Fiona Hill, Russia’s Tinderbox: Conflict in the North Caucasus and Its Implications for the Future of the Russian Federation (Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project, September 1995), p. 104.

409

New York Times, 6 December 1994, p. A3.

410

Вж. Mojzes, Yugoslavian Inferno, chap. 7, „The Religious Component in Wars“; Denitch, Ethnic Nationalism: The Tragic Death of Yugoslavia, pp. 29–30, 72–73, 131-133; New York Times, 17 September 1992, p. A14; Misha Glenny, „Carnage in Bosnia, for Starters“, New York Times, 29 July 1993, p. A23.

411

Миазмите на исляма (фр.). — Б. пр.

412

New York Times, 13 May 1995, p. A3; 7 November 1993, p. E4; 13 March 1994, p. E3; Boris Yeltsin, цитиран в Barnett R. Rubin, „The Fragmentation of Tajikistan“, Survival, 35 (Winter 1993–94), 86.

413

New York Times, 7 March 1994, p. 1; 26 October 1995, p. A25; 24 September 1995, p. E3; Stanley Jeyaraja Tambiah, Sri Lanka: Ethnic Fratricide and the Dismantling of Democracy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1986), p. 19.

414

Khalid Duran, цитиран в Richard H. Schultz, Jr. and William J. Olson, Ethnic and Religious Conflict: Emerging Threat to U.S. Security (Washington, D.C.: National Strategy Information Center), p. 25.

415

Khaching Tololyan, „The Impact of Diasporas in U.S. Foreign Policy“, в Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. and Richard H. Shultz, Jr., eds., Ethnic Conflict and Regional Instability: Implications for U.S. Policy and Army Roles and Missions (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1994, p. 156.

416

New York Times, 25 June 1994, p. A6; 7 August 1994, p. A9; Economist, 31 October 1992, p. 38; 19 August 1995, p. 32; Boston Globe, 16 May 1994, p. 12; 3 April 1995, p. 12.

417

Economist, 27 February 1988, p. 25; 8 April 1995, p. 34; David C. Rapoport, „The Role of External Forces in Supporting Ethno-Reli-gious Conflict“, в Pfaltzgraff and Schultz, Ethnic Conflict and Regional Instability, p. 64.

418

Rapoport, „External Forces“, p. 66; New York Times, 19 July 1992, p. E3; Carolyn Fluehr-Lobban, „Protracted Civil War in the Sudan: Its Future as a Multi-Religious, Multi-Ethnic State“, Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, 16 (Summer 1992), 73.

419

Steven R. Weisman, „Sri Lanka: A Nation Disintegrates“, New York Times Magazine, 13 December 1987, p. 85.

420

New York Times, 29 April 1984, p. 6; 19 June 1995, p. A3; 24 September 1995, p. 9; Economist, 11 June 1988, p. 38; 26 August 1995, p. 29; 20 May 1995, p. 35; 4 November 1995, p. 39.

421

Barnett Rubin, „Fragmentation of Tajikistan“, pp. 84, 88; New York Times, 29 July 1993, p. 11; Boston Globe, 4 August 1993, p. 4. Относно развитието на войната в Таджикистан съм се позовавал в голяма степен на Barnett R. Rubin, „The Fragmentation of Tajikistan“, Survival, 35 (Winter 1993–94), 71-91; Roland Dannreuther, Creating New States in Central Asia (International Institute for Strategic Studies, Adelphi Paper No. 288, March 1994); Hafizulla Emadi, „State, Ideology, and Islamic Resurgence in Tajikistan“, Central Asian Survey, 13 (No. 4, 1994), 565-574; и репортажи в пресата.

422

Urszula Doroszewska, „Caucasus Wars“, Uncaptive Minds, 1 (Winter/Spring 1994), 86.

423

Economist, 28 November 1992, p. 58; Hill, Russia’s Tinder box, p. 50.

424

Moscow Times, 20 January 1995, p. 4; Hill, Russia’s Tinderbox, p. 90.

425

Economist, 14 January 1995, pp 43ff; New York Times, 21 December 1994, p. A18; 23 December 1994, pp. A1, A10; 3 January 1995, p. 1; 1 April 1995, p. 3; 11 December 1995, p. A6; Vicken Che-terian, „Chechnya and the Transcaucasian Republics“, Swiss Review of World Affairs, February 1995, pp. 10-11; Boston Globe, 5 January 1995, p. Iff.; 12 August 1995, p. 2.

426

Vera Tolz, „Moscow and Russia’s Ethnic Republics in the Wake of Chechnya“, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Post-Soviet Prospects, 3 (Oktober 1995), 2; New York Times, 20 December 1994, p. A14.

427

Hill, Russia’s Tinderbox, p. 4; Dimitry Temin, „Decision Time for Russia“, Moscow Times, 3 February 1995, p. 8.

428

New York Times, 1 March 1992, p. 3; 24 May 1992, p. 7; Boston Globe, 5 February 1993, p. 1; Bahri Yilmaz, „Turkey’s New Role in International Politics“, Aussenpolitik, 45 (January 1994), 95;. Boston Globe,! April 1993, p. 2.

429

Boston Globe, 4 September 1993, p. 2; 5 September 1993, p. 2; 26 September 1993, p. 7; New York Times, 4 September 1993, p. 5; 5 September 1993, p. 19; 10 September 1993, p. A3.

430

New York Times, 12 February 1993, p. A3; 8 March 1992, p. 20; 5 April 1993, p. A7; 15 April 1993, p. A9; Thomas Goltz, „Letter from Eurasia: Russia’s Hidden Hand“, Foreign Policy, 92 (Fall 1993), 98-104; Hill and Jewett, Back in the USSR, p. 15.

431

Fiona Hill and Pamela Jewett, Back in the USSR: Russia’s Intervention in the International Affairs of the Former Soviet Republics and the Implications for the United States Policy Toward Russia (Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project, January 1994), p. 10.

432

New York Times, 22 May 1992, p. A29; 4 August 1993, p. A3; 10 July 1994, p. E4; Boston Globe, 25 December 1993, p. 18; 23 April 1995, pp. 1,23.

433

Flora Lewis, „Between TV and the Balkan War“, New Perspectives Quarterly, 11 (Summer 1994), 47; Harms W. Maull, „Germany in the Yugoslav Crisis“, Sunival, (Winter 1995–96), 112; Wolfgang Krieger, „Toward a Gaullist Germany? Some Lessons from the Yugoslav Crisis“, World Policy Journal, 11 (Spring 1994), 31–32.

434

Misha Glermy, „Yugoslavia: The Great Fall“, New York Review of Books, 23 March 1993, p. 61; Pierre Behar, „Central Europe: The New Lines of Fracture“, Geopolitique, 39 (Autumn 1994), 44.

435

Pierre Behar, „Central Europe and the Balkans Today: Strengths and Weaknesses“, Geopolitique, 35 (Autumn 1991), p. 33; New York Times, 23 September 1993, p. A9; Washington Post, 13 February 1993, p. 16; Janusz Bugajski, „The Joy of War“, Post-Soviet Prospects (Center for Strategic and International Studies), 18 March 1993, p. 4.

436

Dov Ronen, The Origins of Ethnic Conflict: Lessons from Yugoslavia (Australian National University, Research School of Pacific Studies, Working Paper No. 155, November 1994), p. 23-24; Bugajski, „Joy of War“, p. 3.

437

New York Times, 1 August 1995, p. A6; 28 October 1995, pp. 1, 5; 5 August 1995, p. 4; Economist, 11 November 1995, pp. 48^9.

438

Boston Globe, 4 January 1993, p. 5; 9 February 1993, p. 6; 8 September 1995, p. 7; 30 November 1995, p. 13; New York Times, 18 September 1995, p. A6; 22 June 1993, p. A23; Janusz Bugajski, „Joy of War“, p. 4.

439

Boston Globe, 1 March 1993, p. 4; 21 February 1993, p. 11; 5 December 1993, p. 30; Times (London), 2 March 1993, p. 14; Washington Post, 6 November 1995, p. A15.

440

New York Times, 2 April 1995, p. 10; 30 April 1995, p. 4; 30 July 1995, p. 8; 19 November 1995, p. E3.

441

New York Times, 9 February 1994, p. A12; 10 February 1994, p. Al; 7 June 1995, p. Al; Boston Globe, 9 December 1993, p. 25; Europa Times, May 1994, p. 6; Andreas Papandreou, „Europe Turns Left“, New Perspectives Quarterly, 11 (Winter 1994), 53.

442

New York Times, 10 September 1995, p. 12; 13 September 1995, p. All; 18 September 1995, p. A6; Boston Globe, 8 September 1995, p. 2; 12 September 1995, p. 1; 10 September 1995, p. 28.

443

Boston Globe, 16 December 1995, p. 8; New York Times, 9 July 1994, p. 2.

444

Margaret Blunden, „Insecurity on Europe’s Southern Flank“, Survival, 36 (July 1994), 145; New York Times, 16 December 1993, p.A7.

445

Fouad Ajami, „Under Western Eyes: The Fate of Bosnia“, (report for the International Commission on the Balkans of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Aspen Institute, April 1996), p. 5ff.; Boston Globe, 14 August 1993, p. 2; Wall Street Journal, 17 August 1992, p. A4.

446

Yilmaz, „Turkey’s New Role“, pp. 94, 97.

447

Janusz Bugajski, „Joy of War“, p. 4; New York Times, 14 November 1992, p. 5; 5 December 1992, p. 1; 15 November 1993, p. 1; 18 February 1995, p. 3; 1 December 1995, p. A14; 3 December 1995, p. 1; 16 December 1995, p. 6; 24 January 1996, p. Al, A6; Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution After the Cold War (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1995), pp. 356-357; Boston Globe, 10 November 1992, p. 7; 13 July 1993, p. 10; 24 June 1995, p. 9; 22 September 1995, p. 1, 15; Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 2 June 1994, p. Al.

448

Jane’s Sentinel, цитирано в Economist, 6 August 1994, p. 41; Economist, 12 February 1994, p. 21; New York Times, 10 September 1992, p. A6; 5 December 1992, p. 6; 26 January 1993, p. A9; 14 October 1993, p. A14; 14 May 1994, p. 6; 15 April 1995, p. 3; 15 June 1995, p. A12; 3 February 1996, p. 6; Boston Globe, 14 April 1995, p. 2; Washington Post, 2 February 1996, p. 1.

449

New York Times, 23 January 1994, p. 1; Boston Globe, 1 February 1994, p. 8.

450

За мълчаливото съгласие на Америка с мюсюлманската военна пратка вж. New York Times, 15 April 1995, p. 3; 3 February 1996, p. 6; Washington Post, 2 February 1996, p. 1; Boston Globe, 14 April 1995, p. 2.

451

Rebecca West, Black Lamb and Grey Falcon: The Record of a Journey through Yugoslavia in 1937 (London, Macmillan, 1941), p. 22, цитирано в Charles G. Boyd, „Making Peace with the Guilty: the Truth About Bosnia“, Foreign Affairs, 74 (Sept./Oct. 1995), 22.

452

Цитирано в Timothy Garton Ash, „Bosnia in Our Future“, New York Review of Books, 21 December 1995, p. 27; New York Times, 5 December 1992, p. 1.

453

New York Times, 3 September 1995, p. 6E; Boston Globe, 11 May 1995, p. 4.

454

Вж. U.S. Institute of Peace, Sudan: Ending the War, Moving Talks Forward (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Special Report, 1994), New York Times, 26 February 1994, p. 3.

455

John J. Maresca, War in the Caucasus (Washington: United States Institute of Peace, Special Report, no date), p. 4.

456

Robert D. Putnam, „Diplomacy and Domestc Politics: The Logic of Two Level Games“, International Organization, 42 (Summer 1988), 427-460; Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), p. 121–163.

457

New York Times, 27 January 1993, p. A6; 16 February 1994, p. 47. За руската инициатива от февруари 1994 г. вж. Leonard J. Cohen, „Russia and the Balkans: Pan-Slavism, Partnership and Power“, International Journal, 49 (August 1994), 836–845.

458

Economist, 26 February 1994, p. 50.

459

New York Times, 20 April 1994, p. A12; Boston Globe, 19 April 1994, p. 8.

460

New York Times, 15 August 1995, p. 13.

461

Hill and Jewitt, Back in the USSR, p. 12; Paul Henze, Georgia and Armenia — Toward Independence (Santa Monica, С A: RAND P-7924, 1995), p. 9; Boston Globe, 22 November 1993, p. 34.

462

Arnold J. Toynbee, A Study of History (London: Oxford University Press, 12 vols., 1934–1961), VII, 7-17; Civilization on Trial: Essays (New York: Oxford University Press, 1948), 17-18; Study of History, IX, 421–422.

463

Matthew Melko, The Nature of Civilizations (Boston: Porter Sargent, 1969), p. 155.

464

Carroll Quigley, The Evolution of Civilizations: An Introduction to Historical Analysis (New York: Macmillan, 1961), 146ff.

465

Quigley, Evolution of Civilizations, pp. 138–139, 158–160.

466

В една прогноза, която може и да е точна, но не е подкрепена от теоретичен и емпиричен анализ, Куигли заключава: „Към 500 г. след новата ера не е съществувала западна цивилизация. Тя се радва на пълнокръвно съществуване към 1500 г. и със сигурност ще приключи съществуването си в даден момент от бъдещето, може би някъде преди 2500 г.“ Новите цивилизации в Китай и Индия, за-мествайки унищожените от Запада, казва той, „тогава ще встъпят в стадия си на експанзия и ще станат заплаха както за западната, така и за православната цивилизация“. Carrol Quigley, The Evolution of Civilizations: An Introduction to Historical Analysis (Indianapolis: Liberty Press, 1979; за пръв път публикувана от Macmillan през 1961), pp. 127, 164–66.

467

Mattei Dogan, „The Decline of Religious Beliefs in Western Europe“, International Social Science Journal, 47 (September 1995), 405–419.

468

Robert Wuthnow, „Indices of Religious Resurgence in the United States“, в Richard Т. Antoun and Mary Elaine Hegland, eds., Religious Resurgence; Contemporary Cases in Islam, Christianity, and Judaism (Syracuse: Syracuse University Press, 1987), pp. 15-34; Economist, 8 (July 1995), 19–21.

469

Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., The Disuniting of America: Reflections on a Multicultural Society (New York: W. W. Norton, 1992), pp.66-67, 123.

470

Цитирано в Schlesinger, Disuniting of America, p. 118.

471

Gunnar Myrdal, An American Dilemma (New York: Harper & Bros., 1944), I, 3. Richard Hofstadter, цитиран в Hans Kohn, American Nationalism: An Interpretive Essay (New York: Macmillan, 1957), p. 13.

472

Takeshi Umehara, „Ancient Japan Shows Post-Modernism the Way“, New Perspectives Quarterly, 9 (Spring 1992), 10.

473

James Kurth, „The Real Clash“, National Interest, 37 (Fall 1994), 3–15.

474

Malcolm Rifkind, Speech, Pilgrim Society, London, 15 November 1994 (New York: British Information Services, 16 November 1994), p. 2.

475

International Herald Tribune, 23 May 1995, p. 13.

476

Richard Holbrooke, „America: A European Power“, Foreign Affairs, 74 (March/April 1995), 49.

477

Michael Howard, America and the World (St. Louis, Washington University, the Annual Lewin Lecture, 5 April 1984), p. 6.

478

У. Шекспир, „Трагедии“, т. I. Превод Валери Петров, НК, С, 1973. — Б. пр.

479

Schlesinger, Disuniting of America, p. 127.

480

Относно тази лихва за 90-те години вж. „Defense Planning Guidance for the Fiscal Years 1994–1999“, предварителен текст, 18 February 1992; New York Times, 8 March 1992, p. 14.

481

Z. A. Bhutto, If I Am Assassinated (New Delhi: Vikas Publishing House, 1979), pp. 137–138, цитирано в Louis Delvoie, „The Islamization of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy“, International Journal, 51 (Winter 1995–96), 133,

482

Michael Walzer, Thick and Thin: Moral Argument at Home and Abroad (Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, 1994), pp. 1–11.

483

James Q. Wilson, The Moral Sense (New York: Free Press, 1993), p. 225.

484

Government of Singapore, Shared Values (Singapore: Cmd. No. 1 of 1991, 2 January 1991), p. 2–10.

485

Lester Pearson, Democracy in World Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1955), pp. 83–84.

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