Battlefield Ukraine

Consequences

Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman was nervous as he lit his fourth cigarette of the day at the early hour of 11am. He was absolutely incensed that President Petrov had the audacity to declare a no-fly zone over nearly half of his country. As if that weren’t enough, Petrov was backing the separatist leaders’ call for a referendum vote. As he angrily huffed on his Ziganov, a vein on his forehead was visibly pulsating. “I have no way of stopping this,” he bemoaned to himself. “Unless the Americans and NATO are willing to intercede, my air force (or what’s left of it) will be grounded.”

Despite his negative mood, a glimmer of hope was seated not that far from him. Sitting nearby in the formal meeting room next to his office were the American Secretary of State, Travis Johnson, the Deputy Commander of US European Command (EUCOM), Lieutenant General James Cotton, Ambassador Duncan Rice and his senior defense official, General Luka. There was also a small crowd of aides sitting down at the end of the table with note pads and pens, ready to take notes. The steward poured everyone a cup of coffee and placed a small tray of snacks on the table before he left the room, closing the double oak doors behind him.

Once Groysman saw his trusty steward enter the room, he quickly put out the rest of cigarette and walked into the room. His military chief of staff, Lieutenant General (LTG) Serhiv Popko, and two of his aides were already there waiting for him as well.

The Prime Minister took a deep breath to calm himself before he spoke. “Mr. Secretary, what the Russians have announced is tantamount to war against my country. We are in the middle of a civil war that has lasted for three years because they have been supporting and propping up the pro-Russian separatists. Thousands of civilians have died, tens of thousands more have been displaced. What can America do to help us in this crisis?” he implored, looking the Secretary of State in the eyes with an unrelenting stare.

Secretary Johnson was still trying to figure out exactly how far they could push the issue with Russia. In the past three days, the Pryluky airbase that the US and NATO had leased from the government had come under nearly a dozen heavy mortar attacks. Six Americans had been killed and 15 others had been injured. NATO had also lost eight soldiers in the attacks, with another 17 wounded. The media were asking a lot of questions about what exactly the US and NATO were doing in the Ukraine.

The Secretary glanced towards the Deputy EUCOM Commander before responding in his thick Texas accent, “Mr. Prime Minister, our President understands the tough situation you are in right now. We want to help, but we also want to make sure things do not spiral out of control any further. As you know, the Pryluky airbase has come under attack multiple times since our Special Forces rescued our two people who had been captured eight days ago. President Gates has affirmed that he wants to provide more support to your government in these trying times. I have been authorized by the President, and our Congress, to provide Ukraine with $1.8 billion in foreign aid to help shore up your economy and put more people in your country back to work.”

“I hope there’s more,” thought Groysman. “I won’t be able to fight off the Russians with a lower unemployment rate.”

Secretary of State Johnson nodded to LTG Cotton to speak next.

“My Command has also been authorized by the Secretary of Defense and the President to provide a significant increase in military aid and assistance. We going to give your military 400 additional MRAP vehicles and 350 Stryker infantry fighting vehicles. We are also going to give your army 90 M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks (MBTs). To assist the integration of your forces with this additional equipment, we are also going to provide 900 military trainers and civilian contractors to help train your forces on the maintenance and servicing of the vehicles.” He brought out a stack of folders, which had the details of the military aid that would be provided, and handed them out to the Ukrainians.

Even though the crowd was still rummaging through the folders, General Cotton continued, “This, of course, is not an overnight solution, and it will take time to implement. We can start the shipment of vehicles and equipment to your country tomorrow, but we are still looking at several months before most of this equipment arrives and we can begin to train your forces on it.”

Secretary Johnson spoke up again, “We are committed to helping your government gain control of all of Ukraine. We also know it will take time to get your forces trained up to handle this task. Your military has made some great progress these past six weeks, and we know you have suffered heavy losses. We hope this infusion of cash, military equipment, trainers, and additional advisors will help your government succeed in finishing off this pro-Russian separatist movement.” He spoke calmly, as if they were talking about a business deal selling computers and not military hardware for the purpose of killing their fellow countrymen.

The Prime Minister sat back in his chair, digesting what he was just told. While the money and military equipment were greatly needed and would aid them immensely in their struggle, it still did not address the problem of what to do about the no-fly zone being imposed on their country, or this pending referendum vote.

“Mr. Secretary, my country is grateful for the help and assistance, we truly are. We would not have had the success we have had up to this point without the help and assistance of America and NATO. However, the assistance you are currently offering does not address the larger issue of the no-fly zone or this referendum. How are we going to handle this? What is America’s solution for dealing with this?” Groysman asked, somewhat annoyed.

“We are not 100 % certain that the Russians will actually enforce the no-fly zone. We think they are blustering and hoping that the threat of it will cause you to come to the negotiating table and give in. As to the referendum vote, I will leave that to Secretary Johnson to answer,” General Cotton answered.

Secretary Johnson nodded, adding, “With regards to the vote, we will not recognize the results. We will work with the rest of the NATO members and the EU to also deny the authority of the results.”

The Ukrainian general, General Serhiy Popko, interjected, “So is America going to test the no-fly zone with one of your aircraft? We have already lost nearly 40 % of our air force in the last six weeks. We cannot afford to lose additional aircraft to test your theory,” he said, somewhat incensed that the Americans do not seem to be taking this threat seriously.

Since this was a military question, General Cotton responded, “As a matter of fact, yes, we are planning on using one of our aircraft to test the Russians’ resolve. When the no-fly zone goes into effect tomorrow, America (along with NATO) will fly several combat aircraft through it, within Ukrainian airspace.”

He paused briefly. Hearing no objections or questions, Cotton continued, “The Germans will be flying two Eurofighters and we will have two of our F-16s fly a joint patrol within Ukrainian airspace, along the border. If the Russians do engage our aircraft, then we will respond. The aircraft in question will be carrying anti-radar missiles and jamming equipment, just in case.”

General Popko leaned back in his chair, smiling proudly. The Americans really were going to honor their word to protect Ukraine and stand up to Vladimir Petrov after all. “I must say, I did not believe you would test their resolve,” he said. He was grateful, though he was a bit concerned if things went south.

Secretary Johnson smiled and let a laugh escape his mouth, “There is a new President in America, and he is not afraid of Petrov or anyone else in the world,” he said to the snickering of some of his aides.

Ambassador Rice stayed silent through the two-hour meeting. He could not believe what he was hearing. Not only was the President an inexperienced novice at running a government, his Secretary of State was a Texas cowboy as well. They were going to openly test Petrov, forcing him to either lose face or engage them. “Don’t they realize that wars have started over smaller missteps and mistakes than these?” he thought. “Nothing good can possibly come from this tomorrow when those American and German aircraft cross into that no-fly zone.”