Battlefield Ukraine

Repercussions

“The Americans did what this morning?!” demanded the Russian President as he stood up angrily.

“The Americans carried out a raid on our Special Forces base camp early this morning. They recovered the two CIA prisoners, the ones that were scheduled to be transferred to Moscow later this evening,” Colonel General Boris Egorkin explained. General Egorkin was the head of the Russian Army, and apparently also the unlucky man charged with bringing the terrible news to President Petrov this morning.

The President pushed his chair back and began to pace behind his desk, thinking. He looked up at his general and his Secretary of Defense. Indignant, he said, “The Americans believe they can do whatever they want. They believe there are no consequences to their actions. Fine. If they want to play this game, if they want to get directly involved in Ukraine with their military, then so will we.”

Squinting at General Salyokov, he demanded, “What forces do we have in Ukraine right now?” The President was extremely angry.

“We have suffered enough humiliation at the hands of the Americans,” he thought. “Those Yankees think that they alone can exert their influence on the world, that they alone are the arbiters of who should remain in control of my country. Well, enough is enough.”

Colonel General Egorkin walked towards the President’s desk. Petrov signaled for him to take a seat at one of the golden chairs in the parlor near the fire place. He knew he needed to calm himself down, so he wanted to move away from his desk and change the scenery up.

The parlor room was the section of his office where he liked to hold discussions with his senior advisors and world leaders when they came to visit. He found that if he changed his immediate setting, he could often change his perspective of a problem, which helped him think more clearly.

Taking his cue from the President as everyone in the room took their seats, General Egorkin began, “We have 100 Spetsnaz soldiers in Ukraine conducting paramilitary training and acting as military advisors. Well… twenty-nine of them were killed this morning during the American raid.”

Several angry murmurs and grumbles broke out in the room. He paused a moment to let them get it out of their system, and then he continued, “Mr. President, you asked what forces we have in Ukraine at this time. We have 1,500 soldiers listed in “unofficial” duty who are engaging the Ukrainian forces with the various militia units. Often, they are the ones leading the ambushes and attacks plaguing the Ukrainians right now. We have another 150 personnel operating the various air defense units throughout the separatist regions, and roughly 400 soldiers operating the various artillery and heavy mortar units.” He was reading the figures from a pre-prepared list that he always kept updated just in case the President asked this exact question.

Throughout the last six months, they had increased the number of military members operating in Ukraine, in response to the introduction of NATO personnel. When the Ukrainian PM leased one of their former air bases to NATO, they donated nearly a dozen anti-aircraft systems to the separatists in response. They also increased the number and quality of arms they were supplying to the separatists. Now that the Americans (and to a lesser extent, other NATO member states) were providing military advisors, Russia began to step up the number of advisors in Ukraine as well.

President Petrov paused for a moment, thinking. “I had hoped we would have been able to use those two prisoners in our next operation, but clearly that is not going to happen. What the Americans did this morning, however, was a brazen attack on our military. I want to use that for all the propaganda value we can. I believe this attack, as awful as it was, can be used to give us the pretext we’ve been looking for to move forward with Red Storm.”

The President looked at each person in the eye, as if assessing their loyalty or the condition of their soul. Then he turned to his commanding general and asked, “What is the status of Red Storm? Are we ready yet?”

General Egorkin responded, “Our ground forces are ready to begin, so is the air force. We just need the orders to be given.”

Sergei Shoygu, the Secretary of Defense, interjected, “Mr. President, the challenge is getting the weapons and personnel into Ukraine without the American and NATO surveillance drones and aircraft detecting them because they are monitoring the border closely. The drones are also providing the Ukrainians with a substantial tactical advantage… there is no question that we need to neutralize the drones.”

President Petrov sighed. He agreed; the drones were becoming a big problem that needed to be handled. “This needs to be rectified then, before we move forward with backing the referendum and additional troops. Let’s consider something else. Why not announce our intention to implement a “no-fly” zone to bring an end to the bloodshed while the separatists hold their elections?”

Minister Kozlov replied, “I do not think it is advisable to do this.”

Petrov turned and barked, “The Americans have instituted a “no-fly” zone over parts of Syria. I say we institute a “no-fly” zone over the eastern half of Ukraine. The Ukrainians have made use of their air force against the separatists, the Americans used it this morning against our own forces. So, let’s implement our own “no-fly” zone.”

He paused for a second while he looked over the maps again. He placed his finger on an area of the map near the border. “Here, move three of our S-400s to this location here. Let’s also deploy two additional S-400s and three S-300s in Belarus as well. I would also like to have one of our S-500s deployed at this location and guarded by additional S-300s. Finally, let’s move several squadrons of Su-34s and Su-35s to our airbases in this sector as well,” Petrov ordered.

“Mr. President,” Sergei responded, “I agree that what the Americans did this morning is an outrage and something needs to be done. However, by moving these air defense systems forward like this, and then issuing this ultimatum, it will draw a lot of criticism from NATO and the US. We can walk up to the line with them, but we have to be willing to cross it if we do.”

Petrov thought about this for a moment before responding, “This is the pretext we have been waiting on to initiate Red Storm. We need to seize it, especially since we have strong support from the Chinese.”

Petrov sat back in his chair. He looked up at the ceiling, admiring the intricate work the designers had carved into the molding. Then he turned his gaze back to the men around him. “I understand the consequence of moving forward with Red Storm. We’ve been training and rebuilding our military towards this goal for years. We’ve been in secret talks with the Chinese for nearly as long, and we’ve finally gained their support. The Americans are at their weakest point politically and militarily in decades. This is the time to act.”

Continuing, he added, “At some point, we as a nation have to stand up and defend our interests. At the end of the Cold War, the Americans and NATO agreed that they would not expand NATO’s borders closer to our own. Then they accepted the Baltic States, Poland, Hungary and Romania into their fold. They tried to add Georgia and now they want to add Ukraine. Russia has held up our end of the Cold War deal, it is NATO and the Americans who have not.”

Then Petrov turned to the Foreign Minister. “Kozlov,” he began, “we have been discussing a referendum with the separatist leaders, one that would support them leaving the Ukraine and forming their own country, their own government. Their leader said they are going to announce this shortly. I believe we should move diplomatically to get things rolling with them, get our own allies to support and recognize them as a country once the election is over. I believe it is now time for us to work with these separatist leaders openly and move to have the referendum take place during our “no-fly” zone.”

Looking at his advisors and seeing them nod their heads, Petrov felt a bit more confident in this decision. “Once we institute the “no-fly” zone, I want us to issue an ultimatum to the Ukrainian government. We will tell them that they need to withdraw their military from the east so a referendum can be held, and the UN can be brought in to monitor a vote. If the people vote to leave and form their own country, then Ukraine must abide by it. If they vote to remain, then we will leave eastern Ukraine and withdraw our support from them.”

No one seemed to have any objections. There was a moment of silence as Petrov continued to formulate the plan in his mind. Then he asserted, “I also want some of our forces to cross into Ukraine at the appointed time as ‘peacekeepers’ to protect the civilian population from the fascist government forces. They have killed nearly two thousand civilians in the last few weeks. It’s time to send forces in there to help protect them from this illegitimate dictatorship so that a vote can take place.”

The President paused for a moment, sitting back in his chair and looked at some of the pictures on the wall as he thought about what this would all mean. He took a deep breath and slowly exhaled. “I know this action may push us closer to a confrontation with the West. The EU and the Americans need to learn that not every vote goes their way, that sometimes, people do not want to embrace their form of democracy. The EU also needs our natural gas and oil, and this will only become more acute as we get closer to winter. While the Americans may threaten us, I do not believe the EU will follow through on any threat of military force. If they do, we simply turn off their gas and oil and refuse to turn it back on. In the meantime, I want us to begin preparation for a limited war with the West. I hope it does not come to that, but I want our military to move to a war footing and begin preparations to deal with the threat,” Petrov said, very seriously.

Looking at his Minister of Defense, he ordered, “Begin to have some of our subs and other ships move to shadow the American and NATO warships in the Baltic and Black Sea. Also, have our cyber hackers prepare their zero-day attacks against Ukraine and Europe. If the Americans do decide they want a fight, then we will make them realize there is more than one way to fight and win a war,” the President said with a sly smile.

The others in the room nodded their heads and smiled as well. They all knew what he meant. The future of warfare was not necessarily going to be through the conventional fight. Russia had spent over a decade building an incredibly talented army of cyber hackers. They had spent years developing a broad portfolio of skilled individuals, testing various countries’ cyber defenses. They had even carried out several major cyber-attacks, like the time they hit the Georgian government communications system the day that the Russian forces invaded, or when they had successfully taken down a Ukrainian powerplant. These attacks proved they could reach out through the digital world and cause damage in the physical realm.

The meeting began to wind down. There were some clarifying questions on the President’s orders, but the overall directives were untouched.

As soon as the official business with Petrov ended, Colonel General Boris Egorkin grabbed a secured line and began to issue mobilization orders to the 1^st Tank Army, telling them to begin deploying to various military bases within striking distance of Ukraine. He also began to mobilize the 6^th Army, ordering them to prepare to follow the 1^st Tank Army into Ukraine if an assault order were to be given.

Foreign Minister Dmitry Kozlov stayed back to talk longer with the President about the timeline of the referendum vote, the issues surrounding getting a UN observer in there, and the deployment of Russian soldiers to remove the Ukrainian forces from east Ukraine so a vote could be held. They also discussed the media campaign and how that would be waged to sway public opinion.

Petrov got an almost nauseated look on his face. “Kozlov, I want you to show unedited footage of all of the dead bodies of our soldiers from the raid the Americans just carried out. Run news articles on the families of the soldiers who were killed — I want it to be clear that the U.S. and NATO are the true aggressors, not Russia. It should be full-court press to humiliate and pressure the Americans to leave Ukraine and end their support of this fascist regime in Kiev. We need to paint Prime Minister Groysman for what he is… a monster who is only bent on exacting revenge and killing those who oppose him.”