Battlefield Ukraine

No Good Options

President Gates was meeting with Senators Jim McGregor from Arizona, Benjamin Grandy from South Carolina, Levi Leibowitz from New York and Timothy Warbler from Virginia to discuss the latest Russian ultimatum and what to do about it. Senator Timothy Warbler was the first to speak. “Mr. President, I urge caution when dealing with President Petrov. We do not want to push him into a corner and potentially cause a shooting war with them.”

Scoffing at this, the Senator from Arizona interjected, “Mr. President. You need to stand strong against Vladimir Petrov. The Russian army cannot be allowed to enter Ukraine and impose a referendum on the people there. This is tantamount to war, and we need to stop him.”

Before Senator McGregor had barely even finished, Senator Grandy was chomping at the bit to add his own two cents. “President Petrov is a thug,” Grandy asserted. “He’s a dictator that needs to be stood up to. We cannot let him walk all over us and think he can get away with this. It’s bad enough that they shot down four NATO aircraft and we still haven’t responded to them. We need to tell the Russians that if they cross the border into Ukraine, they will be met by NATO and American Forces,” he demanded of the President.

Gates took it all in, not saying much at first. He was letting them do all the talking and have a chance to try to present their case. He wanted to know their concerns, and he did genuinely seek their advice. He turned to Senator Leibowitz, “Levi, what’s your take on this? How do you believe we should respond?” the President asked of the Minority Leader.

Senator Leibowitz leaned forward, pausing for a minute before responding. “Mr. President, the Russians interfered in our elections. They have shot down two of our jets, and now they threaten the very survival of another nation. At some point, we have to stand up and say enough is enough. I don’t agree with the good Senators from Arizona and South Carolina often, but in this instance, I do.”

Gates thought about that for a moment. This was a rare moment of true bipartisanship, something he wished he had an opportunity to see more often. “I want to pose a question to everyone. What if the Russians don’t back down? Are we willing to go to war over Ukraine?”

He sat back after asking his question, letting it hang there for a minute to see who would answer the question first.

Of course, it was Senator McGregor who responded first. “Yes. Yes, Mr. President. We should go to war over Ukraine, if it came to that. I do not say that lightly, but NATO was attacked. We cannot let that stand. Petrov is a menace; if we do not stop him in Ukraine, he will make a move on Europe. Right now, his military is weak. He does not have the capability to project force beyond his border, let alone for any extended period of time. He will bluster, but I say we call his bluff, and if we need to, we hit them hard. That will force them to back down,” he said with full confidence in the US and NATO’s ability to stand up to Russia.

Inwardly, the President was shaking his head. “There was never a country that Senator McGregor hasn’t wanted to fight or invade… yet, he could be right about Russia in this case.”

“Mr. President, I disagree with my colleague,” said the Senator from Virginia. “If we push Russia into a corner, they will fight. We need to leave Petrov an out. Perhaps we look to ease sanctions in exchange for them leaving eastern Ukraine. A show of force only works if we are willing to use it, and I do not believe the American people or the rest of Europe would support a war against Russia. Also, we have this burgeoning threat from China in the Pacific that we have not even begun to discuss.” His opinion stood in contrast to the three other senators in the room.

“Senator Warbler brings up a good point concerning China,” Gates responded. “While we are so focused on dealing with Russia, are we getting blindsided by the Chinese?”

The room was silent for a moment as everyone stopped to consider all the different angles to the world situation. The quietness lasted long enough that it almost became awkward before the President spoke again. “My greatest concern is that if we do end up in a fight with Russia, our NATO allies may not stand with us. This may turn into a war that we have to fight on our own, or our allies may only reluctantly halfway support us. You have given me a lot to think about, and I value your input. If you will excuse me now, I have a meeting with the national security council shortly to figure out what they believe our next steps should be.”

He got up, signaling that the meeting was over.

The senators left the Oval Office feeling that they had made their case to the President and signaled their support, should a conflict with Russia ultimately happen. They knew the President had also met with congressional leaders prior to their meeting so they would circle back with their colleagues from Congress to see how their meeting went.

It was nearly 9 pm and everyone was tired; it had been a very busy day in Washington. Everyone was reeling from the effects of the Russian Foreign Minister’s statement. He certainly caught the world’s eye when he announced that Russia was proposing a resolution to the UN security council, calling for the removal of all Ukrainian military forces from eastern Ukraine. Even Senator Leibowitz was shocked when he heard Kozlov call for a secession vote to take place in seven days. Sure, they “welcomed UN election observers” to ensure the election results would be credible, but who could really believe that? The phrase that made all the talking heads in DC the most uncomfortable, however, was when Kozlov stated, “At the invitation of the regional governors, Russia will move forces into eastern Ukraine to end the bloodshed and killing of innocent civilians.”

President Petrov went on TV shortly after Kozlov’s announcement. “The civil war in Ukraine has gone on long enough,” he announced. “Russia is not going to idly sit by and watch as one of its neighbors slaughters civilians and the fascist central government becomes a puppet of the EU and the Americans.”

Speaking as a school teacher giving a history lesson, Petrov continued, “At the end of the Cold War, NATO agreed not to encroach its border on Russia. For the past thirty years, America and NATO have broken their word, time and time again. Well — no more. This evening, Russian armed forces will cross into eastern Ukraine at the request of the regional governors to remove the NATO backed government forces and create a ‘free zone’ where people can once again leave their homes and bunkers and go about their daily lives. One week from today, they will be able to vote and determine, once and for all, if they want to stay a fascist puppet of the EU, or separate from Ukraine and form their own country.”

President Gates had just finished a late dinner with his senior advisor, Stephen Saunders, and his Chief of Staff, Ishaan Patel, to go over their meetings with the members of the House and Senate. Although he had spent several hours meeting members of Congress about what to do in Ukraine, nothing was really going to happen until the meeting he was about to have in the Situation Room. The President had given his national security team several hours to gather whatever information and intelligence they could before formulating a series of potential responses he could take. After the past couple weeks’ worth of intelligence miscues, the President was growing tired of incompetence. However, he realized that he still needed the national security team that he had, at least until he could find better replacements.

As the President walked into the Situation Room and sat down at the head of the table, Tom McMillan almost immediately started the brief. “Mr. President, the Russians sent us the lines of demarcation: they include the Kharkiv Region, down to the Dnieper River in the Dnipropetrovsk Region, to the Zaporiz'ka Region which includes the port city of Berdiansk, then to the Donetsk Region, which also includes the critical port city of Mariupol, and the Luhans'ka Region, which hugs Russia’s border.” He paused for a moment as the image of the demarcation was brought up on a map. Everyone could see that this was a large chunk of Ukraine that would essentially be ripped away from the central government. It also gave the Russians something they have been after for years — a major road and railway to Crimea.

President Gates surveyed the faces of everyone in the room. He could see that several of them wanted to fight; others were hoping they were not witnessing the opening hours of a new world war. “All right,” said Gates, “they’ve given us their terms. What are our options, and what are your suggestions?”

General Joe Hillman, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, spoke up first. “Mr. President, there are several options on the table. Some are military, some are political. I will go through the military options first, and then defer to the Secretary of State to discuss the political options,” he said, ever the professional.

The President gestured with his hand for Hillman to continue, and the general elaborated. “We can take a stand against the Russians, and let them know that if they cross the Ukrainian border, we will defend Ukraine with all of the forces we have in country (we would obviously need to rush additional forces to their aid). That is the most direct military option. Alternatively, we can abide by the terms the Russians have laid out while we work to move sufficient military forces into Ukraine to remove them if they do not leave willingly. Third, we could stand down. In that scenario, we would not get involved militarily, and we would let the Russians divide up the Ukraine.” As the general spoke, he scanned the room, looking to see if he could determine where most people appeared to be leaning.

Travis Johnson cleared his throat, indicating he was ready to go over the diplomatic options. The President looked at him and simply nodded. “Mr. President, we vetoed the Russian resolution a couple of hours ago when it was brought up for a vote in the Security Council. That was our first step. Our next step is to not recognize the results of the election next week. We can use several methods to make it clear that we do not legitimize these sham results. We can say that the election was rigged, that it was not properly monitored — there’s more, but you get the idea.”

He then brought up a slide that denoted economic options. “Next, we can impose significantly more harsh sanctions on Russia. We can leverage the Treasury Department and tell countries and businesses that if they do business with Russia then they cannot do business with the United States. This would essentially freeze them out of the global economy. Even if they tried to work through other banks, those banks would not be allowed to do business with any bank that works with the US. Very few banks or businesses would be willing to work with the Russians if this happened.” Johnson then ran through a number of other economic sanction options, from mild to extreme, and explained their varying effects on the Russian economy and people.

When Johnson had concluded his presentation, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) spoke up. “Mr. President, we have to be cautious with both the economic and military options. President Petrov is posturing right now. He is taking the position that we will not respond either militarily or economically to his provocative actions. While there are consequences to not standing up to him, there is also the potential of severe consequences if he decides to challenge us.”

NSA McMillan was the next to speak. “Mr. President, while the diplomatic option may sound like the best course, these types of harsh sanctions will ultimately result in a military confrontation. If we freeze the Russian economy out of the global banking system, that would be like dropping a nuclear weapon on Moscow. It would be foolish to not expect them to respond in kind.”

McMillan observed several members of the President’s senior circle; they all appeared to be nervous. “Look, we are stuck between a rock and a hard place right now. The DNI is right, we essentially have two options. We can either let the Russians divide up the Ukraine like they have wanted to do since the start of this civil war, or we can stand our ground and accept the fact that it is going to lead to a military confrontation.”

“There, I said it,” McMillan thought. “No one wanted to say that, but everyone knows it is heading that way.”

The President was not happy with the options being presented, but he did not see a lot of other possibilities either. He had been so focused on domestic and economic issues that he had left much of the foreign policy to his senior advisors. Clearly, that had been a mistake, but how should he correct it? “If we back down, what will be the consequences across the globe?” Gates asked. “How will this be perceived internationally?”

The NSA answered this question first. “In some circles, it would be viewed as weak, but in others, it would be viewed as prudent. If I had to hazard an estimate, I would guess that the Europeans will be evenly split. Some of them will be happy that we have not drawn NATO into a war — mostly the French, Italians and Spanish. The Nordic countries, the UK, Germany, and the Baltic states will side with us, as will Poland, Hungary and Romania. They all view the Russian moves as them trying to reclaim their old empire.”

McMillan continued, “China, Iran, and India are the bigger concerns here. They will view this as weakness on our part. Essentially, they will see that if we are threatened with actual military force, we will back down rather than use our military. Remember — the Russians have already shot down four of our aircraft and we have not responded to that yet. Now they will have essentially invaded a country that we have a military base in, and they would see us do nothing to stop it.” He wanted to make sure everyone understood the global repercussions of not responding.

He went on, “If China and Iran believe they can take military action against us or anyone else and face no consequences, then chances are, they will act out. The only thing keeping them in check is the knowledge that we will use our military force to stop them. If they feel that that is an empty threat, they will proceed, and then we’ll be faced with a set of new challenges to deal with.”

Everyone in the room stayed silent for a few minutes, ruminating on that heavy scenario. Most of them had not really considered how this was being perceived by China and Iran. Essentially, if they did nothing, then they were opening the US up to more hostile military actions by these other countries. Whereas, if America stood fast in Ukraine, they would send a message to the rest of the world that the United States will not back down, even if it means going to war to enforce America’s position and values.

The President responded, “I do not believe America should be the global policeman or the sole enforcer of UN or NATO resolutions. The American people are tired of fighting foreign wars where our country is not being directly threatened. On the other hand, I also know that if we give our word, then we need to honor it. In business, if you issue a threat to a contractor that you will fire them if they do not perform, then you need to follow through and terminate them if they fail to hold up their end of the bargain. America has given our word that we will honor our NATO pledge of mutual defense.” The President wanted to reinforce privately what he had said on numerous occasions publicly.

Gates then turned to look at Joe Hillman, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. He asked, “General, how prepared are our forces to defend Ukraine right now? Is this even a viable option?”

The General took a deep breath and then exhaled. “Mr. President, right now we are not in a good position. Our Patriot battery at the Pryluky airbase can shoot down any Russian aircraft that attempt to enter Ukrainian airspace, barring they do not launch hundreds of aircraft or missiles at it. We can further support our air defense system by sending additional aircraft to our forward bases in Poland and Pryluky. As for ground forces, we have roughly 450 soldiers to defend the airbase, and another 780 military advisors. Most of them are Special Forces, but they are not line units that can stand up to a Russian tank division.”

“The Ukrainians have some armored and mechanized forces that can be used; however, they are not up to strength for stopping a Russian armored division. My military recommendation is this… we should not engage the Russians immediately. If we do, we will be defeated. We should wait until we can get sufficient forces in Ukraine and then we give them our ultimatum or be forcibly removed. I recommend we immediately deploy the 173^rd Airborne Brigade out of Italy to our airbase at Pryluky. We should also get the 2nd Cavalry Regiment stationed at Vilseck, Germany, on the road ASAP. They can be at the airbase in roughly 30 hours. I recommend we begin the deployment of the 3^rd infantry division and the 1^st armored division as well. It will take time to get them deployed to Europe, so we should act quickly,” General Hillman explained.

President Gates turned to Secretary of Defense, James Castle. “Jim, I value your advice and opinion on military matters. What do you believe I should do? How would you approach this situation?”

Castle sat forward in his chair. “During the Cold War, the US ran a deployment exercise called Reforger. We essentially role-played a scenario of the Russians invading West Germany and the beginning of a hypothetical World War III, running up a massive mobilization and deployment of our forces from the US to Europe. I recommend that we initiate Reforger now, in real life. If we are able to negotiate a peaceful solution, then great. This will have simply been a tremendous training exercise (one that I might add we have not conducted since 1993). If things do turn into a shooting war, then we will be well on our way to having the forces and equipment either on the way to Europe or already in place.”

The President added, “My concern is that all of the preparations of Reforger might lead the Russians to believe that we are planning to attack them first, so they would preemptively initiate the conflict. At the end of the day gentlemen, our goal is not to go to war. We want to find a way to solve this problem without killing each other.”

The Secretary of Defense nodded, not in agreement, but to acknowledge that he had heard. “Mr. President, while I understand your apprehension, these mobilizations take a significant amount of time and resources to accomplish. We can make sure that we effectively handle the PR strategy to cover this as a training exercise, but if we do not do this, then we will likely be caught with our pants down when a conflict does inevitably begin.”

“Hmm… I see what you are saying,” conceded the President. “Ok, Castle, you’ve convinced me. Let’s get Reforger up and running… I still have concerns though, gentlemen. What happens if the other NATO members decide that they are not going to hold up their end of the agreement and send troops to support us if a war does start?”

Secretary Johnson responded, “Mr. President, you bring up a good point. If we are going to go to war with Russia, there are a lot of things we need to take into consideration, like the fact that not all NATO members will want to participate. Some members may even openly challenge our effort to get NATO involved. Also, we have to keep in mind that the Iranians and Chinese may see this as an opportunity to go rogue on us, believing that we are too occupied to challenge them. The Chinese have already annexed Mongolia, and are even now talking about this ‘Greater China’ strategy.” Johnson went on for another fifteen minutes, discussing the political fallout and ramifications of a potential military confrontation with Russia. The other men in the room were polite, but you could tell that most of them were resigned to a world in which conflict was most likely inevitable.

Gates finally butted in. “This is a test for NATO as well. If we do move to a conflict with Russia, and a member of NATO opts to not honor their obligation to the organization, then I want them removed from NATO with a five-year ban on reentry. If NATO is going to stay a relevant organization, then members will either be 100 % on board, or they will be out.”

The President turned to Castle and Johnson, “I want you both to work the phones and meet with the NATO leaders. I want an agreement from NATO on supporting any military action against Russia. We will need to have consensus to do what needs to be done, or we will not act.”

The discussion continued for another hour as everyone went over the various aspects of what needed to happen next. The mobilization of the Army Reserves and activation of key National Guard units was going to raise a lot of red flags and cause a lot of questions to be asked. Everyone needed to know exactly what to say, and work from the same basic talking points.