Battlefield Ukraine

Taking Flight

Ambassador Duncan Rice could not believe how badly things were playing out in Ukraine. He had tried to warn the President and his national security team of the grave consequences if they backed Russia into a corner, and now everyone was paying the price for it. As he sat in the Chancellery, reading the latest intelligence summary, he thought he might get sick. NATO had really underestimated the Russians’ capability to wage war and overestimated their ability to defeat them.

It had only been twenty-four hours since his own Embassy in Kiev had to be evacuated to Warsaw. Ten hours later, the Ukrainian government fled to the city of Lviv in Western Ukraine when it became clear NATO was not going to be able to hold Kiev. There were reports now of numerous US, German, and British units trapped in various parts of Kiev as the Russians continued to envelop the city, attempting to capture as much of the NATO army as possible.

Just then, Duncan’s phone rang. Looking at his secured smartphone, he saw the caller ID. It was the Beijing Embassy, and he knew it was his old friend Vincent Jones, one of the senior political officers at the Embassy. They had gone through their diplomatic training together many years ago, and had stayed in touch ever since.

“Hello, Vincent. How are you doing my friend?” he asked jovially.

“I am doing good, Duncan. This was the first chance I’ve had to call and see how you are doing. I heard they had to evacuate the embassy yesterday,” he said with genuine concern in his voice.

“Yes, the Russian army was advancing quickly on Kiev. It’s believed they will capture it sometime today,” Ambassador Rice responded sadly.

“That’s terrible,” replied Vincent. “From what we are following, it looks like the war is not going well for our side. Is there anything Jennifer and I can do for you and your family?”

“No, we’re fine. My wife and the kids flew back to the States two weeks ago, so they are safe. I’m just trying to do what I can to help mediate things and see if we can work out a ceasefire, but I’m not hopeful,” Duncan said candidly.

“You are probably too busy right now, but things are starting to take a turn here in China as well. The Chinese see the US in a weak position with how the war is shaping up in Ukraine. Our DAO and others at the Embassy had a briefing with the Ambassador, showing a significant troop increase all along China’s southern and southwestern borders. We are not sure what is going on yet, but they may be looking to take advantage of the situation and expand their own borders, knowing that the US has little in the way of stopping them.”

Duncan thought for a moment, “This is troubling. Petrov has practically staged this entire event to turn out the way he wanted. Now things are starting to heat up with Iran in the Straits of Hormuz, and China is moving soldiers to their borders. Could this possibly be a well-orchestrated global event? It certainly would make sense, given how fractured politically we have become at home.”

“This is rather disturbing, my friend,” Duncan said aloud. “I need to let you go… I have to talk with someone about something. Some pieces are finally starting to fit together. Please stay safe, and we’ll talk again soon.”

As he hung up the call, he leaned back in his chair thinking for a minute. “What could all of this mean. Could it really be a global conspiracy? Is there a plot to taint our 2016 elections, cause scandal after scandal, and then orchestrate a military expansion in Europe and Asia while we are distracted?”

Duncan had to shove those thoughts aside for the moment. He had a briefing with the embassy staff in a few hours, and he needed to get caught up on the latest happenings in the war. The Ambassador in Poland was going to reach out to the Russian Ambassador here, and see if they couldn’t find a way to end the fighting.

Ten minutes into reading the various intelligence summaries, it became clear that as bad as the military front was, the diplomatic front was in even worse shape. Due to the sustained disinformation campaign being played out by the Russians, the general population in each of the NATO member states was increasingly against their country joining the war. Yesterday evening, President Yavuz announced that Turkey would not participate in any armed conflict against Russia. That announcement was quickly followed by Hungary and Spain also signaling that they would not participate in the war.

As Ambassador Duncan read on, there were at least some glimmers of hope in the responses of the world leaders. The British Prime Minister had called this a blatant act of sabotage to the NATO alliance, and chastised the heads of Turkey, Hungary, and Spain publicly. The Presidents of Italy and France, along with the Chancellor of Germany, announced their support of the alliance and, at long last, released their armed forces to the command of SACEUR and NATO high command. President Gates (along with the leaders of France, Germany, and the UK) had called for the removal of Turkey, Spain, and Hungary from NATO for failure to honor their military obligation.

Several other members of NATO said this was too rash of a move to make while in the midst of a war, while others said any member not willing to honor its agreement should lose its membership.

While the politics of NATO was quickly becoming a mess, President Gates had announced the deployment of 250,000 US Soldiers to Europe and called on all able-bodied men and women in America to answer the nation’s call to arms and join the military. He was attempting to rally the nation to unite against Russia. Had the Russians not carried out a domestic attack against America’s energy export industry, his call for unity might have failed. As it was, Gates was able to fully capitalize on this supreme political miscalculation by Moscow; the people of the US were hot for revenge.

Then the President asked for a formal declaration of war by the US Congress, even though a state of war had essentially existed for several days. He also asked Congress to double the size of the current Armed Forces and announced the activation of the entire Reserve and National Guard Forces. This war was spiraling out of control fast. If someone did not get things under control in Washington and in Europe, this could turn nuclear.

Just as Duncan’s thoughts were starting to turn dark, his phone buzzed. He looked at it and saw on the caller ID it was from the White House. He picked up and said “Hello, this is Ambassador Rice.”

“Hello, Ambassador Rice, please hold for the President,” he heard the voice of the White House operator say. Duncan was in shock.

A minute went by and then he heard the President pick up, “Ambassador Rice. I think you and I should talk some more. I am in need of some clear level-headed advice on this unfolding disaster in Ukraine, and I believe you may be able to help provide that. Can I count on you to travel back to Washington and give us some insight?” asked the President.

Duncan didn’t know what to say at first, this was exactly what he had wanted, and now the opportunity had presented itself. This was a real chance to help right this situation before it could spiral any further out of control. He knew there was only one answer he could give. “I’ll be on the next flight to Washington, Mr. President. Thank you for thinking of me,” he replied, and then the President hung up.

Less than twenty-four hours later, Ambassador Rice was standing under the covered entrance to the JW Marriott hotel in Washington, DC. His chartered flight from Warsaw had arrived nine hours ago, which meant he had only had enough time to catch a couple of hours of sleep, talk briefly to his family and get dressed for his meeting with the President. As he stood under the covered entrance, looking out at the city, everyone was rushing around doing their normal activities as if it was just any ordinary day. Being there, it was as if there was not a major war with Russia going on, and there were no men and women dying in a foreign land.

Just as he was about to get lost in his thoughts, a black Chevy Suburban pulled up. As it came to a halt, the front passenger door opened, and a solidly built African American man with a black suit, sunglasses, and an ear piece stepped out and walked up to him.

“Are you Ambassador Duncan Rice?” he asked in a very serious tone as he surveyed the surrounding area.

Duncan had not been expecting the Secret Service to pick him up for this meeting; he thought a regular State Department vehicle would collect him for his White House meeting. Duncan nodded and replied, “Yes, I’m Ambassador Rice.”

The agent then walked towards the rear passenger side door and held it opened for Duncan. As he walked over to the door and began to get in, he saw Secretary of State Johnson sitting in the other seat.

“Mr. Secretary, I was not expecting you. Good Morning,” he said as he proceeded to get into the vehicle. The Secret Service agent then closed the door and the vehicle began to move the short distance to the White House.

“I wanted to personally greet you Duncan, and welcome you home. You were placed in a tough position in Ukraine. I wanted to let you know you have done a good job trying to diffuse the situation and prevent this war from happening.”

Rice snorted slightly before responding. “It doesn’t seem like any of that did any good at preventing this war from starting though. I fear things are now going to spiral out of control, and I am not sure what can be done to stop that from happening,” Duncan replied, clearly dismayed.

Johnson sat there for a minute, not saying anything as he looked out the window. They were approaching the vehicle entrance at the back of the White House. The driver flashed his ID and so did his partner. The vehicle was quickly waived through, directed over to the area for further inspection before being allowed to drive up to the building.

Secretary Johnson turned and looked at Duncan. “I know you are frustrated, and you have every right to be. Right now, it is our job to provide the President with the best possible counsel and advice we can to help bring an end to this war, or at least ensure it stays conventional. Do you think you can work with me and the President on doing that, Duncan?”

As Duncan thought about what his boss had just said, the phrase, “keep it conventional” sent shivers down his back. Russia was a nuclear power, and it was not out of the question that they could potentially use those horrible weapons to achieve the political and military outcome they were looking for.

He turned and faced the Secretary, “I will do my utmost to help end this conflict, Sir.”

Before either man could say anything further, their doors were opened and they exited the vehicle. They followed their escorts into the building and through security to the corridor that would take them to the West Wing. The last time Duncan had been to the White House was during the last administration, when he had been officially appointed as Ambassador to the Ukraine. It had been the crowning achievement to his diplomatic career, to be officially recognized as an Ambassador on behalf of the United States.

As the two men entered the Oval Office, they saw the President get up and walk towards them. He greeted Johnson with a warm smile and a firm handshake. Then he turned to Duncan and said, “Ambassador, thank you for traveling here to meet with me today. We have much to talk about.” He gestured for them to take a seat at the couches near the fireplace.

A couple of stewards brought everyone some coffee, and they got down to business. The President looked at Duncan and began, “Ambassador, whether we like it or not, we now find ourselves in a shooting war with Russia. What I need from you is some frank and honest assessments on the political environment in Ukraine and Russia. I need to have a better understanding of what Petrov’s goals may be and see if there is a way to end this war before more blood is shed.”

Duncan thought about that for a minute before responding, then he steeled himself and gave his assessment. “Mr. President, Petrov believes the US and NATO have been closing in on him. He is angry over the inclusion of nearly every former Warsaw Pact nation into NATO. The sanctions against his country’s economic and political leaders are viewed internally as America’s way of removing him (and the oligarchs who control much of Russia) from power. They view the US’s actions over the last seventeen years as a preemptive move towards regime change,” he explained, trying to clarify how they had gotten to this point.

The President sat there listening intently to what Ambassador Rice had to say. Then he posed his own question. “You believe the Ukraine’s move to join the EU was the last straw — his red line that we, along with the Ukrainian government, had crossed?”

Duncan nodded before replying, “Yes, Mr. President. With acceptance into the EU, membership in NATO was a forgone conclusion. When the US signed the lease to establish a military ground and airbase in Ukraine, it brought to fruition Petrov’s worst fear. Russia was officially surrounded by US and NATO military bases, and it would only be a matter of time before we destabilized his government and removed him from power. It was at that moment that he had nothing left to lose and everything to gain by attacking NATO.”

“Petrov had to know the US and NATO would fight back. Why would he risk a full-scale war?” probed the President, trying to better understanding of Petrov’s reasoning.

Duncan let out a short sigh before he responded, “Petrov knows he would lose a long war with America, so he has no intentions of fighting a long war. His objective, which I’m sure your military advisors have told you, is to remove NATO from Ukraine, and then negotiate a peace agreement. Petrov knows he can win a short war. He knows it will take months for the US to mobilize for war, and even longer for the Europeans. If he can succeed in pushing NATO out of Ukraine, he can then move to create a peace deal through the UN and the people of our country. The NATO member countries would clamor for us to agree to whatever terms he gives if it means ending the war. This is what he is fighting towards,” Duncan explained, feeling better now that he had put to words what he knew Petrov was going to do. It was a relief to be able to say it directly to the one person who mattered, the President of the United States.

Gates sat back on the couch and looked up briefly, thinking to himself. He then looked directly at Duncan and asked, “Do you think we should give in to him, or fight him tooth and nail?”

Duncan was a bit taken aback by the question. He was not sure how to respond to such a question. “Sir, that is not my decision to make. I am only an Ambassador. Only you and the Secretary here can answer that question,” he finally replied.

The president smiled slightly at the answer, then nodded. “You’ve given me a lot to think about, Ambassador Rice. I would like you to stay in DC for the time being and work with Johnson here on trying to negotiate an end to this conflict. Arrange a time to meet with the Russian Ambassador to the US, and start to see what their ideal end-state might look like. I am not saying we are going to agree to their terms, but I would like to know what they are thinking so that we can plan around them.”

Duncan nodded his agreement, and the President concluded the meeting.

As Ambassador Rice got up, he shook the President’s hand one last time and then left the Oval. He was escorted out of the building and offered a ride to the State Department. He accepted the offer and was driven to the headquarters building where he was met by the Russian desk team. Then they led him to a temporary work office and he began to work on arranging a meeting with the Russian Ambassador.