Battlefield Ukraine

Escalation

Ambassador Duncan Rice sat at his mahogany desk, reviewing several proposals for bringing eastern Ukraine back into the fold as he sipped on his morning coffee and nibbled on his everything bagel smothered with cream cheese. He wanted to go over the options again before his meeting with the Prime Minister tomorrow. The Ukrainian PM had pressed the Secretary of State for a review of the current options being pursued and asked if new political and military options could be drawn up. Ambassador Rice and his staff had worked around the clock for almost a month before the Secretary of State had finally given her blessing on the proposals.

The Embassy staff’s proposal was for a continuing of sanctions against Russia, maybe even a strengthening of them. This policy had been implemented by the previous President’s Administration with mixed results. The goal of the sanctions was to make the Russian government hurt enough that they would stop their support of the rebels in Eastern Ukraine. So far, all it had done was antagonize Russia into a tit-for-tat response; they had been sticking their nose into the affairs in the Middle East, and vetoing additional sanctions against North Korea, despite their continued violation of previous UN sanctions. However, as the sanctions stayed in place, they were starting to have an effect on a number of influential Russian businesspersons. The hope was that strengthening this approach would provide more expedient results.

The second proposal was put together by the non-diplomatic side of the Embassy, the CIA’s Chief of Station (COS) and the Defense Attaché’s Office (DAO). The plan involved sending U.S. Special Forces soldiers as advisors to direct the Ukrainians on how best to defeat the rebels. The Department of Defense’s Office for Defense Cooperation had helped to make this plan possible through a massive increase in foreign military aid since the start of the Gates Administration in January. As he read the proposal, he had to admit that it looked like it would work, though he still had a lot of concerns about how this might provoke an excessively negative response from the Russians.

Unlike most diplomats, Ambassador Rice had a good sense of how the military worked. He had served as an officer in the Marines before leaving to pursue a career in the diplomatic service of his country. He knew the enemy would respond in ways that could not yet be calculated, as in any military operation. Chances were, this plan, as good as it was, would not survive first contact with the enemy. His goal was to solve conflicts through diplomacy whenever possible. Military force should only be used as a last resort, and not a first option.

Duncan had been a career diplomat with the Department of State for nearly eighteen years. As a diplomat, his purpose was to represent the interests of the United States and to help diffuse tensions and conflicts in whichever country he was assigned. He still felt a peaceful solution could be found in Ukraine, though it was becoming increasingly difficult as tensions between Washington and Moscow continued to mount. Duncan sat back in his leather office chair and placed the papers down on the desk in front of him. He closed his eyes, thinking back to how he had become the Ambassador in Ukraine just four months earlier.

When it became clear that the former Secretary of State was not going to become the 45^th President of the United States, he had seen a unique opportunity to help distinguish himself from his peers. Duncan quietly began jockeying to be reassigned to Ukraine. Having served ten years at the US Embassy in Russia and other Eastern European countries throughout his career, Duncan felt he understood the Russians and could help to defuse the conflict that had been going on in Ukraine for the past four years. He wanted to spearhead the efforts to establish a workable peace deal in the country, which was something that basically none of his other colleagues wanted any part of, especially under what many thought to be a novice President. Many of his peers held great disdain for the incoming President, and several even resigned in protest. While Duncan did not agree with or vote for the President, he recognized that Gates had been duly elected by the people, and he felt that it was now his job to help implement his country’s foreign policies.

Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman was a young man to hold such a position of great power in Ukraine. He had been helped in part by the connections his family had within the unspoken oligarchy of the nation, but he was also an incredibly charismatic speaker in his own right. His message had resonated with the people of Ukraine, who were mostly enticed by the idea of a modern European existence. It wasn’t long before he had risen to the top of the opposition party that ousted Yanukovych.

When he originally took power, PM Groysman had hoped to approach Eastern Ukraine calmly and bring them back into the fold through diplomatic means. He certainly heard often enough from his EU partners that they wanted him to handle the issue peacefully. At first, he agreed with their reasoning, but after a while, he began to feel bitter that he was constantly being told how to run the country, as if the heads of state in the European Union thought he were a child.

After four long years of conflict, Volodymyr was losing patience. The constant protests were undermining his legitimacy as the true leader of Ukraine. He began to work with his Public Information Officer to make sure that stories that were favorable to his administration were the dominant voice in the public information sphere.

When President Gates was sworn into office in the United States in January of 2017, Groysman was initially unsure of the new leader’s intentions towards Russia. He worried that he would have another man in office who would try to convince him that he should win over the separatists with simple kindness. However, within a matter of months, Gates had changed the US policy towards Ukraine and had started providing the country with military aid. “Perhaps I have misjudged this man,” thought Volodymyr. “Gates seems to be someone who is not afraid to stand up to the Russian dictator.”

The Prime Minister was very pleased with the assistance that began to pour in from the US. In addition to equipment and manpower, the Special Forces soldiers began to train the Ukrainian military fighters, introducing a lot of new tactics. Unknown to him, Ambassador Rice was behind the scenes, trying to slow things down.

On more than one occasion, Duncan picked up the phone and tried to talk some sense into his direct superior, the Secretary of State, Travis Johnson. “Sir, I serve at the pleasure of the President, but this place is a giant powder keg waiting to explode,” he asserted. “We need to cool things down here, not send additional weapons to the area. Why don’t we defuse the situation by providing substantial economic aid to the affected areas? We could try to get people focused on rebuilding the economy here and healing the wounds of conflict,” he pleaded.

The Ambassador’s appeals fell on deaf ears. “Rice, while I respect your opinion, I recently spoke to your new Senior Defense Officer (SDO), George Luka, and he has a different assessment. He views this Ukrainian conflict as a counterinsurgency fight, and feels confident that with the right training, military advisors and equipment, we can win.”

“Mr. Secretary, I value my colleague, but George was just promoted to Brigadier General very recently. He hasn’t been on the ground here that long. I feel that his experiences in the Special Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan may have impacted how he sees things here,” explained Ambassador Rice.

“Well Ambassador, you may have a point,” agreed Secretary Johnson. “However, the Secretary of Defense also shares the same views. He wants to take a hard line against Russia, and he feels that the Ukraine is the perfect place to do it.”

“Sir, I agree that something needs to be done to counter the separatists, but I feel strongly that applying economic pressure on the Russian government is a better approach. If we make the sanctions arduous enough, the Kremlin will stop supporting the rebels in Eastern Ukraine,” claimed Ambassador Duncan.

The Secretary of State didn’t budge. “I think we are going to have to agree to disagree on this one, Rice,” he countered.

Duncan was frustrated. The Secretary of State and his SDO were not the only people to disagree with him. The CIA Station Chief, a man by the name of John Williams, also sided with General Luka. He despised the Russians and blamed them for meddling in the American election. Agent Williams didn’t waste any time. Soon he had convinced the President’s National Security Advisor to allow “The Agency” to deploy a Special Activities Division (SAD) unit to help counter the separatist movement.

Once Ambassador Rice learned of this plan, he definitely had reservations. “Nothing good can come of a SAD team operating here. They are killers, nothing more,” he thought. Still, despite the challenges and divergent agendas and personalities, Duncan began to feel that real progress was taking place in Ukraine.

Several months went by. Prime Minister Groysman knew that Ambassador Rice preferred a diplomatic solution, but he was unaware of the conversations that were taking place in the background. All he knew was that the support from the United States continued to ramp up, which he appreciated more and more as the situation in Eastern Ukraine continued to escalate.

One day, Marko Tereshchenko, one of the Prime Minister’s senior military advisors, showed up at Groysman’s office unexpectedly, sweating as if he had just run a mile to get there as quickly as possible.

“Prime Minister,” he began, “I apologize for my unannounced visit, but I must speak with you very urgently.”

Groysman waved him in. “What is it, Marko?”

“Sir, Oleksandr Prasolov is going to be speaking at the protests in Kharkiv,” he announced, out of breath.

“The former deputy minister from the Yanukovych administration?” Groysman asked.

“Yes, Prime Minister,” Marko responded. “Oleksandr has been a problem. He will try to rally the people of Eastern Ukraine to join the other separatist regions, and our intelligence on the ground shows that he is a very effective voice for the opposition.”

“Enough is enough,” asserted Groysman. He stood up and began to pace the room. “I am so tired of these constant protests and attacks against our government. The soft touchy-feely European approach isn’t working any more. We have to get serious about shutting this down! I want you to give me some options for how we can use the military to support the local police there.” He smacked the desk. “I want to see the proposals here by the end of the day, do you understand?”

“Yes, Sir,” Marko replied. He dashed off to get the plans in order.

Volodymyr had a tendency to be rash sometimes. He didn’t have the patience that many men develop with age and life experience. However, even though he ordered 1,500 soldiers to Kharkiv to put down the insurrection, he had not intended for things to go sideways the way that they did.

Things had been going smoothly until one of the soldiers, a sniper, shot Oleksandr in the head, killing him instantly. Once Oleksandr was dead, the security guards surrounding the other speakers began to shoot at the soldiers and police officers, who in turn began firing into the crowd of protestors. By the time the sun rose the following day, 28 protestors had been killed and another 112 had been taken to the hospital. Nearly 200 others had been arrested, along with several protest leaders who had survived the bloody evening. The separatist provinces began calling the tragedy the Freedom Square Massacre and took to the airways to proclaim, “This is proof that the fascist government in Kiev is never going to negotiate in good faith with us about the reforms that they promised. The time to act is now!”

Groysman read every report that came in regarding the activities in Kharkiv. His partners in the EU and the US kept calling him and telling him how poorly this was all being received in the West. He stopped answering his phone. “They do not know what they are talking about,” he thought. “From the outside things look differently, but I know my men were ultimately successful in stabilizing the city. That multi-day protest has finally ended, and those who are loyal to the government will no longer feel that they have been left to fend for themselves behind enemy lines.”

As much as the Prime Minister wanted to end the separatist movement and evict the Russians once and for all, he didn’t realize that the Freedom Square Massacre had ignited new passion in the separatist movement in Eastern Ukraine. Russian propaganda and fake news began to pour across social media throughout Ukraine, hyping up the government’s use of soldiers against peaceful civilians. Footage of the head shot that killed Oleksandr Prasolov had been caught on someone’s smartphone, and was instantly turned into a powerful propaganda image against the central government in Kiev.

Though Ambassador Rice had no proof, he suspected that Oleksandr Prasolov had been killed by the SAD team, or that they had at least influenced the Ukrainian soldiers at Freedom Square. Regardless, after the massacre, the new head of the Russian separatist movement, Alexander Zakharchenko, organized a series of violent protests against the central government in a number of major cities across eastern Ukraine.

The situation continued to become more volatile. The US had been providing training to the Ukrainian military leaders for around six months, and those leaders began to become more and more confident in recommending a military solution to the separatist problem. General Luka worked with his partners at US Special Operations Command in Europe, and they were on board with providing additional US military advisors if needed.

After everything that had happened, Ambassador Rice sat at his desk, staring at two different paths. One option would lead them to further the diplomatic route, and the other would steer them into a swift military conflict to crush the separatist movement without mercy. Ambassador Rice was not sure what Prime Minister Groysman would choose.

The morning of Saturday, August 5^th was a beautiful day. The sun was out, the birds were chirping, and most people were enjoying a lazy Saturday morning at the numerous outdoor cafes and restaurants around the Prime Minister’s office. Like many of the buildings constructed during the Soviet Union days, the PM’s office was a grand and majestic edifice, created to impose a feeling of power on all those who entered it.

General Luka opened up the enormous iron front door and held it open for Duncan and Colonel Avery to enter. Every time the three of them walked into that building, they could not help but feel small as they looked up at the high ceilings and large paintings of government officials.

As Ambassador Rice entered the PM’s office, he saw the head of the Ukrainian military and the Defense Minister seated on the couch in the parlor section of the room, casually talking with each other and smiling. He shook the Prime Minister’s hand and greeted him warmly in his native tongue.

Once the pleasantries had been completed, he walked over to the couch, where the other men were currently sitting. Duncan sat down and warmly accepted the cup of coffee being offered to him by the Prime Minister. As the Ambassador surveyed the leader’s face, he could tell that the job had aged him. He had substantially more grey hairs than the average young man in his late 30s, and the creases around his eyes seemed deeper than the last time they had met in person.

Many of the leaders who had come to power in the decades following the fall of communism had a history of going out of their way to enrich themselves rather than focusing on lifting up the people of their countries. Prime Minister Groysman was an exception to this rule. Ambassador Duncan saw in the man an intelligent visionary who truly wanted what was best for his people; he hoped he would stay in power for several more years.

As Duncan lifted his mug to his mouth, he took a deep breath through his nose to inhale the aromatic steam before taking a sip. He was a bit of a coffee connoisseur (his friends occasionally joked that he was a java snob), and for some reason the Prime Minister seemed to have a lock on the best coffee he had ever tasted. He had tried on numerous occasions to find out who his supplier was, but Groysman held onto that information like a closely guarded state secret.

“Mr. Ambassador, thank you for meeting with us this Saturday. As you know, it has been a trying time in Ukraine these past several weeks.” His face was solemn. “I assume you have reviewed the military plans to end the conflict in the east?” he asked.

“I have, Mr. Prime Minister. As a diplomat, I still recommend caution. Although the window may be closing, I do believe a peaceful solution to this conflict is possible. A military operation could result in hundreds of thousands of people being displaced as refugees, not to mention the civilian casualties that would surely be suffered,” Ambassador Rice warned. Duncan wanted to make sure the PM fully understand the consequences of moving forward with a military operation.

Groysman stiffened. He nodded in acceptance of what Ambassador Rice had said. “We are in a tough situation, Ambassador Rice. This conflict has been going on for several years. It has ruined our economy and divided our country. The separatist regions are governed by a small group of leaders, and they are controlled by a group of militias that number roughly ten to twelve thousand members. Unfortunately, the Russians continue to arm and train them. There are even unofficial Russian combat units operating in the East. If we do not act soon, they will become too strong and the divide in our nation will become permanent.”

The PM continued, “We have spent the last four months getting ready to conduct this operation. With the Russians putting forth a renewed effort to go after ISIS in Syria, they are currently sufficiently distracted from intervening here any further. Your own CIA does not believe the Russians will intervene militarily. Therefore, with the military advisors and training your country has provided, and the substantial number of weapons, food, fuel and vehicles your country has given us these past months, we now feel we are ready to move forward with the operation.” Groysman paused to take a sip of his coffee, as if the group was discussing their weekend plans and not a war.

He placed his coffee cup down and looked Ambassador Rice in the eyes, “In forty-eight hours, we will begin the operation. Our forces will begin to move into the Kharkiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the Donetsk regional state administrations.”

This made it official. Duncan sat there for a moment, not sure what to say. “This is a dangerous move,” he thought. “It will certainly result in a military confrontation between separatist fighters and the Ukrainian military, but it could also result in a direct confrontation between the ‘unofficial’ Russian forces that are not ‘officially’ in the Ukraine. This is the exact situation I desperately wanted to avoid.”

Duncan put his own coffee down. He leaned forward, returning Groysman’s unrelenting eye contact. “Mr. Prime Minister, I implore upon you one last time to reconsider this action. We are starting to make headway with the Russians. Through the sanctions, we can get them to end their support for the separatist movement on their own. Then the movement will die and lose support.” He could see by the expression on his face that the PM did not want to wait any longer. “I ask for you to give diplomacy more time,” he pleaded, placing his hand over his heart. Duncan hoped that he might somehow be able to sway the man before him from making this potentially disastrous decision.

As Groysman sat there listening to the American Ambassador, he couldn’t help but marvel at how determined Ambassador Rice was to see a diplomatic solution to what everyone could see was a military problem. He sighed before speaking. “Ambassador Rice. I greatly appreciate the efforts of yourself and others to help solve the problems in Ukraine via diplomacy, but you must see that this has now moved to a problem that must be solved militarily. There are limits.”

The Prime Minister then leaned forward. “General Luka, along with my senior military advisors, assure me that our military is now up-to-speed and ready to handle this. We have received hundreds of Javelin anti-tank missile systems, fuel, food and other needed equipment to sustain a military operation such as this.” Groysman could see the diplomat was saddened by this information. “The Russians are now involved in the Syrian conflict, they are finally too busy to get heavily involved in our conflict. This is not 2014, and America has a new President, one who will not back down to threats made by President Petrov.”

Duncan could see the PM was not going to change his mind, so he changed tactics, “If I cannot talk you out of this military operation, then how can we support you to ensure its success?” Duncan hated the idea of offering military aid, but the Secretary of State and the President had told him in no uncertain terms that if he could not persuade the Ukrainian Prime Minister to avoid a military operation, then he was to offer whatever support would be necessary to guarantee its success.

PM Groysman leaned back in his chair. “I hold all the cards now,” he realized. “After all, the new American President does not want to lose face with the Russians. With all of the allegations of him being a Russian puppet after their meddling in the American election, he needs to look strong. They are eating out of my hands now.”

“Ambassador Rice, thank you for your offer. I truly do wish we could have found a diplomatic solution, and I will rely on your help once the time comes to pursue a diplomatic end to the conflict. Right now, I must do what the people who elected me are demanding, uniting our country and putting down this separatist movement.”

Groysman paused for a moment, calculating what he could ask for. “What I will need American help with is intelligence. We need help with surveillance, supplies, and logistical support while my ground forces carry out the actual fighting.”

Sighing, Duncan replied, “Well, you know that I wanted to try and talk you out of this confrontation. However, seeing that I cannot, I want to make sure it succeeds. I will hand over the rest of this discussion to General Luka and Colonel Avery, the US Air Force Liaison Officer to the Embassy,” the Ambassador said, nodding towards his two military counterparts for them to speak up.

He had to give them both credit; they were true professionals. Not once did they try to interrupt or add anything more to the discussion. They sat there passively and waited for their turn to talk, knowing that it would come. They knew the Ukrainians were not interested in further peace talks, but they also knew every effort had to be made before they moved forward with the military option.

General Luka cleared his throat before speaking. “Mr. Prime Minister and General Popko, as you know, the US leased the former military airbase at Pryluky, roughly seventy miles from the Boryspil International Airport in Kiev. We have spent the last two and a half months rebuilding it, transforming it into a training facility and forward operating base for the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to support your operations. Now that military action is going to move forward, you should go ahead and assign those ten Liaison Officers (LNOs) we had previously talked about, along with additional interpreters.” General Popko had been expecting the request. He smiled and nodded in agreement.

The Pryluky airfield had been Ukraine's primary Tupolev Tu-160 “Blackjack” bomber base until it was decommissioned at the end of 2012 due to budget cuts. When the US and NATO wanted to lease the base and build it back up, it was seen as a huge economic boon to the cash-strapped central government. It brought thousands of high-paying jobs to the local area and imported thousands of NATO servicemen who would spend hard currency (Euros and US Dollars) in the surrounding area. It was estimated the base would bring in several hundred million Euros a year in economic activity alone.

The Air Force LNO spoke next. “We have eight Predator drones, two Reapers, and two Global Hawks that are ready to provide 24/7 ‘round the clock surveillance of the battlefield as your forces move forward. We also have several electronic surveillance tools that will be made available. As we spoke about previously, starting tomorrow, we are going to close off the airbase to all non-essential personnel. We want to minimize the chance of any separatist forces gaining access to the base,” he said as he showed some of the plans they had for securing the airbase.

The Ukrainian government had leased the facility (much to the angst of the Russians) to the US three and a half months ago. The base was in a bad state of repairs when the Americans took it over. Then, a fleet of contractors and military engineers showed up and the base began to transform overnight. They immediately began to modernize the base, rebuilding living quarters and offices and upgrading the runway and other aircraft facilities. The US and NATO collectively poured in roughly $80 million to the facility, transforming it into a modern military facility.

“When your forces head into the disputed territory on Monday, they will have constant drone surveillance and signals intelligence, we’ll help you root these separatists out in short order,” the Air Force Colonel said, confident that this military operation would be wrapped up before the end of the year.

While Ambassador Duncan sat there listening to the military members talk, he had a sick feeling in his stomach that things were not going to work out quite as well as everyone thought it would. “I hope I’m wrong,” he thought, “but military operations seldom turn out how they are supposed to. The enemy always gets a vote in the matter, too.”

The group continued to talk for a while longer, going over details about the logistical support that would be needed. There was some debate as to what would be provided by the Americans versus NATO, but at the end of the day, a complete plan had been formalized.