Battlefield Ukraine

The Box

Duncan was eating a bagel and cream cheese at his desk as he read the most recent State Department cables from the night before. He was perusing through a message between the Secretary General of NATO and the US Secretary of State discussing the Russian no-fly zone.

“Mr. Secretary, I do not believe the Russians will try to enforce the no-fly zone,” wrote the NATO Secretary. “They will bluster and threaten, but in the end, they will blink.”

“For all our sakes, I hope they are right,” thought Duncan. “This has the potential to spiral out of control quickly.”

Just as he finished reading the cable, he was shoving the last bite of his breakfast into his mouth. Then General Luka barged into his office.

“Ambassador Rice, we have a serious problem,” he announced. His face was all red as he towered over Duncan’s desk.

The Ambassador almost choked as he tried to hurry up and swallow his food so he could speak without his mouth full. “Please,” he said as he grabbed a sip of coffee, “have a seat, General. Tell me what’s going on.” He had a sickening feeling in his stomach.

The general sat down and took a breath before continuing, “They did it. The Russians really did it.”

“Did what, exactly?” asked Ambassador Rice, confused.

“I just got confirmation from our people at the airfield. The Russians just shot down two American F-16s and two German Eurofighters that entered the no-fly zone. They also eliminated all seven of our drones that we had operating over eastern Ukraine,” General Luka explained. He was still almost out of breath and seething with anger.

“This can’t be happening,” Duncan bemoaned to himself. “I told them we needed to tread carefully with the Russians. We boxed them into a corner, and that left them with no option but to fight.”

“Take a breath, General, please,” urged the ambassador. “Let’s start from the beginning. You said the Russians just shot down four Allied aircraft and our drones. Have we recovered the pilots yet? What is their status?”

The general took a deep breath and held it for a second to try and slow his breathing down and regain his composure. “Yes, the search and rescue (SAR) unit recovered two of the pilots — one German, and one American. The other two pilots died when their aircraft blew up,” he said in a more controlled voice.

The wheels started twirling around inside of Ambassador Rice’s head. “I need to talk to the Secretary of State… and the US European Commander. Ugh. I’m going to have to be the one to tell Prime Minister Groysman about this incident too. I told them this could go south!”

Between all the competing thoughts, he realized that he needed all the facts before he talked to anyone. “General Luka, what is being done about this right now? What are the next steps?” He wanted to know if a retaliatory strike was already being planned.

The general, now more composed, responded, “I’ve alerted the Ukrainian desk at the Pentagon. The commander at the airfield has sent a flash message to NATO headquarters and US European Command headquarters as well—”

Just then, the Regional Security Officer (RSO) walked into the Ambassador’s office. Without so much as apologizing for interrupting, the RSO blurted out, “ — Sir, we have received an urgent communique from Washington. They are requesting that you speak with them down in the Box.” He indicated with his arm that they should both follow him down to the basement of the embassy.

Each embassy has a “Box,” which is a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility (SCIF). It’s typically a small room, big enough to seat maybe eight people, and it is always filled with secret and top-secret communication equipment and computers. It’s the one room in the embassy that is truly secured from electronic spying, and typically only a handful of people at an embassy have access to it.

As the group made their way down to the basement, the Ambassador saw that the Marine guards had increased their security posture. They were now wearing body armor, and instead of their usual firearms, they were carrying their M4s. Once they all reached the location of the Box, they filed in through the narrow steel door and took their seats at the small conference table. One of the communications specialists from the National Reconnaissance Office had already gotten the video feed set up. There were several screens: one had been labeled “White House Situation Room,” another “Pentagon Operations Center,” a third read “SHAPE Headquarters,” and the final one was labeled “US European Command.”

People continued to fill into the rooms at the various outstations, until someone came on from the White House Situation Room, indicating the meeting would start shortly. Then, the President of the United States walked into the Situation Room, and took his seat at the head of the table.

Gates wasted no time with formalities. “All right,” he said, “someone fill me in. What the devil is going on in Ukraine?”

General Wheeler, the Supreme Allied Command, Europe (SACEUR) who commanded NATO and US European Command spoke up first. “Mr. President, SACEUR here. Approximately 33 minutes ago, two American F-16s and two German Eurofighters flying under NATO control were shot down by Russian surface-to-air missile systems. They also shot down all seven of our surveillance drones, Mr. President.”

Gates turned to his National Security Advisor (NSA), retired general Tom McMillan, and barked, “What the blazes happened, general?! I thought the consensus from everyone was that the Russians would not do this. What went wrong?”

The NSA looked at the others in the room briefly, then back to the President. “Sir, it was our assessment that the Russians would not engage our aircraft to enforce their no-fly zone. Clearly, we were wrong, and there is no excuse Mr. President.” McMillan’s tone was as apologetic as the retired general could muster — he was never wrong. This was a new concept for him.

Travis Johnson, the Secretary of State, spoke up quickly, “Mr. President, I clearly underestimated the Russians’ resolve to enforce this no-fly zone. When I spoke with Foreign Minister Kozlov yesterday, he said that they would enforce it and encouraged us to not test them, but frankly, we believed them to be grandstanding. We thought that they might lock our aircraft up with ground radars, maybe attack one of our drones, but we did not believe they would attack our fighters,” he said in his thick Texas draw.

Tyrone Wilson, the youngest Director of the CIA (and a rising star, by all accounts) added, “We knew the Russians were moving SA-10s and their more-advanced SA-21s into the area, but our analysts believed that this was being done to enforce the idea of the no-fly zone. Our Russia desk has also reported a substantial increase in Russian troop movements towards the border region as well. In light of this recent act of aggression, we have to assume they may be positioning those forces on the border for a potential incursion into eastern Ukraine.”

The last statement only muddied the waters for the President. Gates was clearly getting mad, one could see that his cheeks were flushed red. However, he did not break into a tirade or outburst, at least not yet. He simply looked at his senior advisors, and asked the obvious next question, “So, what do we do now? How do we recover from this obvious miscalculation in intelligence?”

Tom McMillan spoke up first. “Sir, we need to move our forces in Ukraine and Europe to Threat Condition Delta. They need to be prepared in case the Russians are planning any further military action. Following that, we need to reach out to them diplomatically and get an explanation from them on why they openly attacked four NATO aircraft. Third, I recommend that we place additional military units in the US on alert in case they need to be rapidly deployed to Europe.”

James Castle, the Secretary of Defense, agreed. “I have to concur with the NSA. We should work to solve this diplomatically, but we also need to be ready to respond militarily, if necessary. The Russians just shot down four Allied aircraft. We need to make it clear to them that this kind of aggression will not be tolerated and that their actions will lead to swift repercussions. We should send more military aid to the Ukrainians along with additional military advisors, and then impose additional sanctions on Russia. This way we are not getting American or NATO troops involved in a direct military confrontation with Russia, but we would also send a strong message that this type of aggression will not be tolerated.”

Ambassador Rice could not believe what he was hearing. “Is everyone really so woefully unaware of how all these moves would be viewed by the Kremlin? I know I should just stay silent and let the others do the talking, but I’ve got to say something before things spiral out of control even further,” he thought.

Clearing his throat rather loudly, he got the attention of everyone on the screens. “Mr. President, this is Ambassador Duncan Rice, the Ambassador here in Kiev. If I may, I would like to say something,” he interjected, hoping the President would give him a chance to talk.

The President looked directly at him. “Ambassador Rice, I am glad you spoke up. You are the man on the ground there — I would like to know what your opinion is and what you think we should do,” Gates said encouragingly.

Duncan couldn’t believe it. “The President is not only going to let me speak — he wants my advice,” he thought in wonder. “Oh, look at Travis Johnson’s face — that’s priceless. He has no idea what I’m about to say, and that clearly makes him nervous.”

Assuming control of the meeting for a brief moment, Ambassador Rice began, “Mr. President, prior to becoming the Ambassador to Ukraine, I worked as the Deputy Chief of Mission to Belarus for four years. Before that, I was the senior political officer at our Moscow embassy. I have a lot of experience dealing with the Russian government and their allies.”

The President nodded and appeared impressed with his background so far.

Duncan continued, “The Russians view our involvement in the Ukraine as encroaching on their territory and interests, especially when we signed that ten-year lease on the Pryluky Airbase outside of Kiev four months ago. It would be like Russia signing a military lease with Tampico, Mexico, less than fifty-miles from the US border.”

Duncan knew he needed to get to his main point, but he also needed to set the context. “Mr. President, at the end of the Cold War, America and NATO agreed that we would not expand the NATO borders closer to Russia. Throughout the late 1990s, and then through the 2000s and 2010s, the US and NATO broke that deal time and time again. We accepted the Baltic States into NATO, then Poland, Hungary, and Romania. We even tried to get the Republic of Georgia to join.”

“With the Ukraine interested in joining the European Union, if their application were accepted, then joining NATO would be a forgone conclusion. Mr. President, America broke our deal with Russia, and Petrov sees the continued advance of American bases ever closer to their border as a direct threat. I believe that President Petrov has placed a line of no-return over Ukraine. He chose to implement and enforce this no-fly zone after our raid on their Special Forces compound. If we push Moscow further, I am confident the Russians will escalate this conflict, which is something none of us want to see,” Duncan said, hoping that he had not pushed things too far. He knew he was essentially speaking against what most of the President’s advisors were telling him, but he felt he had an obligation to give the President the best advice possible, even if Gates did not like or agree with him.

Tom McMillan jumped right in after Duncan had finished speaking, angrily asserting, “With respect, Mr. Ambassador, whose side are you on?! It sounds like you believe we have brought this upon ourselves and we should just back down and give Petrov what he wants.” His voice was dripping with disdain.

Before anyone else could add more to the discussion, the President interrupted to say, “Ambassador Rice, thank you for your candid and frank opinion. I am still a bit new to the history of Russia and NATO’s past dealings, but I can see how the Russians may perceive our new base as a direct threat to them.”

McMillan’s jaw dropped a bit. “It almost sounds like the President is siding with Duncan,” he thought. “I was sure he would side with the war hawks. Maybe I misjudged him.”

The President continued, “Before we deploy military forces and talk about an appropriate response, I want to know why our intelligence was so faulty as to not know that the Russians would, in fact, shoot our aircraft down. I’ve been giving the intelligence community a lot of slack since I became President. I’ve also caught a lot of heat and had to endure endless leaks from them. Now, they colossally screwed up another situation, and because of that failure, people were killed.”

The President turned to Mark Jones, the Director for National Intelligence, Wilson, and McMillan, and looked each of them in the eye with an uncomfortably penetrating stare. “I want to know who was in charge of producing these intelligence assessments. I want to know who made the call that the Russians were just blustering and I want to know why they made that assessment. This is a huge mistake, and I want people to be held responsible for it,” the President said angrily.

Since the President was sworn into office, his administration had had to deal with countless leaks from the intelligence community, and even some of his own staffers. From phone conversations between himself and world leaders to questions he had been posing to the community at large, the press had been beating him up for months as inexperienced and incompetent. At the same time, his own intelligence community had been doing their best to undermine him at every turn.

General Wheeler, the SACEUR, tried to change the topic. “Mr. President, if I may — I would like to order additional fighter aircraft to our base in Poland and Ukraine. I would also like to begin developing a plan to neutralize the Russian air defense systems, should it become necessary.”

The President assessed General Wheeler; he had only met the man once, but he held great respect for him. “Please proceed with making whatever plans you feel are necessary to protect our troops and our allies. I do not want anyone to engage the Russian military, or attack their positions unless I give the order. Until we figure out this crisis within our own intelligence circles, and Travis is able to get a response back from the Russians, I do not want to engage them.” Gates wanted to make sure everyone understood that he was not looking to escalate things any further with Russia.

As the meeting broke up, the military went into high gear, alerting various units of a possible deployment to Europe and potential confrontation with Russia. In Europe, General Wheeler had all US and NATO forces go to threat condition Delta. Additional F-16s were being scrambled to the US base in Poland and Ukraine.

Twenty minutes after the assembly concluded, the Secretary of State had a one-on-one call with his Ambassador to Ukraine. “Duncan, I want you to assure the Ukrainians that we are still standing behind them, that we are working out this situation. However, please ask them to halt their military operation in eastern Ukraine until we can get things sorted with the Russians. I don’t want them to do anything rash that might escalate the situation further. Also, good job in the meeting. The President needs people to give him good, frank advice. I need that as well from time to time,” he said, ending the call.