Vengeance

11 WASHINGTON, D.C.

It was just past midnight when the president entered the Situation Room in the West Wing, taking his seat at the head of the table, joining members of his staff and cabinet on one side and the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the other. Acting Secretary of Defense Peter Seuffert began his hastily prepared brief.

“We’re still analyzing the data, Mr. President, but here’s what we know.” Seuffert opened a presentation on his computer, which displayed a map of Ukraine and western Russia on the flat-screen display on the far wall, with four red arrows thrusting into Ukrainian territory.

“At four thirty a.m. local time, Russian military units invaded Ukraine. There are four main incursions, one into each of the southeastern Ukrainian oblasts. The First Guards Tank Army has invaded Luhansk, the Eighth Guards Combined Arms Army has entered Donetsk, and the Fifty-eighth Guards Combined Arms Army is surging westward through southern Donetsk toward Zaporizhia while Russian forces from Crimea are moving north into the Kherson oblast.

“We expect the First Guards Tank Army to quickly overwhelm Ukrainian forces in Luhansk, where it will be backfilled by several smaller units moving in behind it, then the First Guards Tank Army will likely serve as a reserve unit employed against difficult Ukrainian resistance or counterattacks. With the lack of incursions elsewhere in Ukraine, it appears that the aim of Russia’s invasion is to seize control of a corridor between Russia proper and Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.”

Seuffert reviewed the relevant details of the earlier conflict. “Russia’s annexation of Crimea was a unique situation. Its population is two-thirds ethnic Russian and the province was part of Russia for two hundred years before it was gifted to Ukraine by Nikita Khrushchev in 1954. From a Russian perspective, now that Ukraine is no longer an ally, they simply took back what was rightfully theirs. Ukraine protested, but eventually ceded the region without conflict.

“Crimea’s isolation from the rest of Russia has been a sensitive issue, particularly since Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is based in Sevastopol, Crimea. Needing the approval of Ukrainian authorities to move military personnel and equipment to and from Crimea has been a thorn in the side of the Russian government. With Russian separatists already controlling portions of Luhansk and Donetsk, it seems that Russia is intent on expanding its foothold in those oblasts while also seizing portions of Zaporizhia and Kherson.”

“How did Russian preparations for this invasion go undetected?” the president asked.

“The troop movements were done piecemeal over the last few days and occurred only in a single Russian oblast. Some movements were detected, but not significant enough to raise concern to our level. We were expecting a more expansive mobilization and assault, similar to Russia’s last invasion of Ukraine.

“The crux of the issue,” Seuffert continued, “is that Ukraine cannot repel Russian forces without NATO assistance, but Ukraine isn’t a NATO member. The United States could intervene unilaterally, but without NATO support, our casualties could be high, plus there’s a significant risk when engaging an opponent with nuclear weapons. The situation could escalate.”

Chief of Staff Kevin Hardison added to Seuffert’s observation. “Intervening in this conflict is not only high risk, but it will be a hard sell to Congress and the American people. With the presidential election only a few months away, entering into a war with Russia could be an extraordinarily bad decision.”

Turning to Secretary of State Marcy Perini, the president asked, “What’s your assessment of the situation?”

“Based on what we’re seeing, Russia has learned from their past mistake of venturing into NATO territory, triggering a defense response from the allied countries. Also, Russia appears to be limiting its invasion to a relatively small corridor of land instead of the entire country.”

“What’s your appraisal of NATO’s willingness to intercede?”

“Essentially zero,” Perini replied. “After the last two conflicts with Russia, NATO members are weary of war. There will be no appetite to intervene on Ukraine’s behalf. At least not militarily. Fortunately, you’ve already publicly outlined the repercussions of Russian aggression, and there will likely be support within NATO for extensive sanctions. Several countries may pose a challenge, however, due to their dependence on Russian energy. Our attempt to hit Russia where it hurts will also harm many of our allies.”

“Resistance to harsh sanctions against Russia by some NATO members isn’t a surprise,” the president replied. “We’ve been working the issue, and hopefully we’ll have a solution soon. When can we expect a NATO member-nation meeting?”

Perini replied, “An emergency meeting of the North Atlantic Council will occur within the hour, and the council representatives will likely recommend an immediate meeting with the heads of state from all thirty-two nations. I’ll keep you informed as I learn more, but you should plan to travel to Brussels within the next twenty-four hours.”

The president nodded his understanding. “We’ve got a lot of work ahead of us on the diplomatic front. Promulgate our proposed list of sanctions against Russia, plus military aid to Ukraine, to each NATO country by noon, and have our ambassadors begin liaising with their respective governments.”