Vengeance

14 BRUSSELS, BELGIUM

Seven hours after departing Joint Base Andrews, Air Force One descended through gray, overcast skies, landing at Brussels-Zaventem Airport. The president was met on the tarmac by the U.S. ambassadors to Belgium and NATO, plus senior NATO staff and Belgian government representatives.

After the requisite greetings, the president slipped into the back of Cadillac One, which had been transported to Brussels during the night with the rest of the president’s motorcade and backup vehicles. The motorcade traveled into Brussels, arriving at NATO’s headquarters, identified by a twenty-three-foot-tall oxidized steel star, symbol of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, in front of the building.

The president and his entourage were escorted to a lobby outside the Alliance’s main conference room, where the leaders of NATO’s other thirty-one countries were gathered. British Prime Minister Susan Gates was the first to greet the president.

“I’ve reviewed your proposal,” Gates said. “We are of the same mind when it comes to sanctions and military aid. I’ve spoken with Chancellor Klein, and she affirmed that Germany shares the sentiment.”

German Chancellor Lidwina Klein maneuvered her way across the lobby, joining the American president and British prime minister. The diminutive woman, barely five feet tall, shook the president’s hand firmly.

“Gaining approval for the sanctions will be difficult,” Klein said, “given that several member nations are highly dependent on Russian energy. While Germany has almost completely weaned itself from Russian oil and natural gas over the last decade, other countries have actually increased their dependence.” She cast a glance at French President François Loubet.

“I’m conscious of the predicament created by my proposed sanctions,” the president replied. “I’ve been working on the issue and believe I have a solution.”

Before either Gates or Klein could inquire, the clock struck the appointed hour and the conference room doors opened. The thirty-two NATO leaders took their seats at a large round table with thirty-three chairs: one for the leader of each NATO country, and the final chair for the secretary general. The president inserted a wireless earpiece into his ear, listening to the English translator as the secretary general, Johan Van der Bie, a well-respected diplomat from the Netherlands, gave a short introductory speech. An update on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine followed, with the information displayed on video screens mounted around the conference room perimeter.

Russian units surging southwest from Russia and north from Crimea had linked up, establishing a Russian-controlled corridor in the southeastern region of the country, bordering the Sea of Azov to the south. Fighting along the northern edge of the corridor was more intense than expected, with Ukrainian forces responding quicker and more effectively than during Russia’s two previous invasions.

Following the secretary general’s update, Van der Bie recognized Lithuania’s president, ceding the floor to her. After a brief greeting, Dalia Grybauskaitė delivered a passionate plea for NATO intervention.

“Once again, Russia has trampled upon the sovereignty of a neighboring country. Much like Russia’s attempt to annex part of Lithuania two years ago, Russia is attempting the same in Ukraine. I want to express my gratitude again to my fellow members who responded to our call for aid. Ukraine is not so fortunate, lacking membership in our powerful alliance. However, the international community has an obligation to assist Ukraine’s effort to repel its invaders. NATO is a member of that international community, with the resources and proximity to lend that aid swiftly and effectively.”

A glance around the table told the American president that there was little appetite for direct military intervention this time, specifically because Ukraine was not a NATO member. If any country could benefit from Alliance assistance, what was the point of being a NATO member?

Secretary General Van der Bie recognized a motion from French President François Loubet, who had requested to speak.

“To a large extent,” Loubet began, “the conflict between Russia and Ukraine can be considered a territorial squabble, similar to Pakistan and India’s dispute over Kashmir. Around the world, there are dozens of other territorial disputes that erupt into armed conflict. Does NATO get involved in each of these disputes? No, we do not, and should not. NATO refrains from military conflict unless the sovereignty of one of our member nations is infringed upon.”

Loubet’s eyes canvassed the leaders of his fellow NATO countries, stopping briefly on the U.S. president before continuing.

“I have reviewed the list of sanctions proposed by the United States. They are substantial, but there is no guarantee they would produce the desired effect. We have tried sanctions in the past — although not as comprehensive as these — and they have failed to influence Russian behavior. Additionally, we must consider the effect these sanctions will have on our own countries, many of which remain significantly dependent on Russian oil and natural gas. Succinctly stated, I do not have sufficient alternative energy resources or public support to confront Russia over this relatively minor transgression.”

The French president ended his soliloquy with, “Unless a solution is presented that ensures a sufficient and uninterrupted supply of energy to France and other NATO countries, I cannot endorse sanctions that will do as much harm, or more, to my country than they do to Russia.”

Numerous council members looked to the American president, who had taken the floor after Russia’s invasion of Lithuania, pledging the United States’ support. Britain and Germany had privately signaled their intention to support the proposed sanctions, but the president knew it would be a tough sell to other NATO members. The president had foreseen the resistance months ago, when he had decided to propose sanctions in response to Russian aggression, and had carefully prepared.

The American president requested to speak, and the secretary general turned the floor over to him.

He pulled the microphone in front of him closer. “Thank you, Mr. Secretary General. Ladies and gentlemen, I’ll keep my remarks short. Russia has invaded a sovereign nation again, and we have another decision to make. NATO’s dependence on Russian energy is a threat to the viability of our Alliance, one that must be dealt with more effectively than we’ve done to date. That, however, is a long-term issue. In the short term, Ukraine requires — and deserves — our assistance.

“Regarding the proposed military equipment and financial aid to Ukraine in my proposal, there are no hard requirements. Each country will be free to determine the extent of equipment and funding provided, so I suspect there are no objections to this provision.”

The president paused, offering the other leaders the opportunity to signal their disagreement. None did.

Continuing, the president confronted the key issue. “Regarding the economic sanctions, the goal is to throttle Russia’s income and change their calculus, making it more beneficial for the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine than to occupy part of it. I realize that these sanctions will also curtail the flow of critical energy resources to NATO members, which is a repercussion that some governments find untenable. To address this, I have just reached an agreement with OPEC. While NATO’s economic sanctions remain in place against Russia, OPEC will increase output sufficiently to offset the reduction in Russian imports. NATO countries will be able to obtain the energy we need, and without a significant price increase.”

There were murmurs around the table; the president’s revelation was being favorably received.

“Details of the agreement with OPEC will be provided to each member nation following this meeting.”

The president shifted his gaze to French President François Loubet. After a long moment, Loubet nodded tersely.

Wrapping up his speech, the president finished with, “I request a vote on the proposed sanctions against Russia and aid to Ukraine by the close of business tomorrow.”

General Secretary Van der Bie replied, “The United States has requested a vote on its proposal in thirty hours. Does anyone object?”

When no one did, the meeting was adjourned with a thud of Van der Bie’s gavel.