Vengeance

31 WASHINGTON, D.C.

In the West Wing basement, the president was joined in the Situation Room by Chief of Staff Kevin Hardison, National Security Advisor Thom Parham, Secretary of State Marcy Perini, acting Secretary of Defense Peter Seuffert, and Sheila McNeil, who had replaced Brenda Verbeck as secretary of the Navy. The information coming in from the Persian Gulf was alarming, with the casualties climbing by the hour. The president turned to Sheila for the latest update.

“How bad is it?”

“So far, eight merchant ships — all of them oil or natural gas tankers — have been sunk in the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf. The sinkings began six hours ago, commencing in the strait, and have moved into the Persian Gulf. All shipping through the strait, both into or out of the Persian Gulf, has come to a standstill.”

“Do we know who’s responsible?”

“We have nothing concrete at the moment, but the circumstantial evidence points heavily toward Russia. Twelve days ago, several Russian nuclear-powered attack submarines sortied from Vladivostok. We had only one American submarine on station in the area, and it trailed one of the Russian submarines as it traveled southwest. It lost the Russian sub in the dense shipping lanes northwest of Malaysia, but it was headed toward the Persian Gulf. Based on the Russian submarine’s average speed while it was trailed, extrapolations have it reaching the Strait of Hormuz about an hour before the first sinking occurred. We’re analyzing sonar recordings of the torpedo explosions to determine the type of torpedo employed, but so far, the quality of the recordings has been inadequate for a confident assessment.”

“I have a suspicion about what’s going on,” the president said, “but what are your thoughts?”

Secretary of State Marcy Perini replied, “It’s likely the Kremlin’s response to our aggressive sanctions imposed after their invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions are designed to throttle their oil and natural gas sales, starving their government of funding, and it appears Russia is attempting to neutralize our effort by cutting off natural gas and oil shipments to Western Europe, forcing our NATO allies to rely on Russian resources instead.”

The president nodded. “That’s my assessment as well. Are there any other opinions?”

There were headshakes around the table, so the president turned again to Sheila McNeil. “We’ll need to defend these merchant ships from attack. What are our options?”

“We have Fifth Fleet assets in the Persian Gulf, which could be assigned to escort oil and natural gas tankers, but we’ll need more ships to escort every tanker. The Theodore Roosevelt strike group is in the Red Sea, on its way back to the West Coast after being relieved in the Mediterranean by the Eisenhower strike group. We could divert the Roosevelt strike group into the Persian Gulf instead. If so, the strike group would arrive in the gulf in two days.”

“What about submarines?” the president asked.

“We have one fast attack in the vicinity — the one that was trailing the Russian submarine — which we can assign to the Roosevelt strike group. We have five submarines homeported in Guam and two squadrons in Hawaii. Three of the Guam boats are in a ready-to-deploy status, and if assigned, can be in the gulf in about a week. Submarines from Pearl Harbor would take another week. However, Michigan is in the Arabian Sea at the moment, currently en route to the Black Sea to give you the option to provide Tomahawk missile support to the Ukrainians, if desired. Instead, we could divert Michigan into the gulf until the submarines from Guam arrive.”

“What do you recommend?” the president asked.

McNeil replied, “We’d like to reroute the Roosevelt strike group into the Persian Gulf, accompanied by Michigan and the nearby fast attack, and sortie the three available submarines from Guam. In case there are more Russian submarines in the gulf, we also plan to order the Pearl Harbor submarine squadrons to prepare for deployment.”

The president nodded his understanding. “I concur with your plan. Begin escorting oil and natural gas tankers in the Persian Gulf.”

Turning to acting Secretary of Defense Peter Seuffert, the president asked, “What’s the latest status on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?”

“It appears that President Egorov has achieved his primary objective, seizing control of a corridor of land along the southeast border of Ukraine, connecting mainland Russia with the Crimean Peninsula. The situation has stabilized somewhat, partly due to the inflow of NATO funding and military equipment to Ukraine, and Egorov seems content with the territory seized thus far. The Russian Army is fortifying its front line and has not launched offensives into other parts of Ukraine. It appears that Egorov is digging in for a prolonged war until Ukraine gives up and cedes the territory under Russian control.”

“I understand,” the president said. “Keep me informed on any changes in status in Ukraine or the Persian Gulf.”