Vengeance

15 MOSCOW, RUSSIA

In a Kremlin conference room, Chief of Staff Anton Kravtsov leaned back in his chair, waiting for President Dmitry Egorov’s fury to run its course. The red-faced leader of the Russian Federation had just been briefed on the sanctions approved by NATO, along with their predicted impacts on government revenue and the country’s economy. Oil and natural gas sales accounted for forty-five percent of federal government revenue each year — over fifteen trillion rubles.

NATO sanctions would cut that revenue by two-thirds, leaving a ten trillion ruble deficit unless sales to other customers could replace the lost demand, an unlikely event due to OPEC’s agreement to supply the extra oil and natural gas that Western Europe and Turkey would need.

“I have to give the American president credit,” Egorov said after his anger faded. “He followed through on his threat. Additionally, his agreement with OPEC insulates NATO countries from the impact their sanctions would have had. We must respond in a way that forces NATO to relax these sanctions. What options do we have?”

There was silence around the table until Defense Minister Andrei Grigorenko spoke.

“The agreement with OPEC presents an unexpected opportunity.”

“How so?” Egorov asked.

“OPEC agreeing to increase output is only one part of the equation. Transporting that oil and natural gas to Western Europe is the other critical part. Pipelines into NATO countries are limited and already at full capacity. The additional energy must travel by ship, and ninety percent of oil and natural gas leaving the Persian Gulf passes through the Strait of Hormuz. At its narrowest point, the merchant ship transit lanes constrict to a six-mile-wide swath for the deep-draft oil and natural gas tankers. With the necessary intervention, we can strangle NATO’s energy supply in repayment for their attempt to strangle our finances.”

“How would we accomplish this?”

“Our surface Navy was ravaged during the battle with the American carrier task force in the Arabian Sea, but our submarine force remains a potent asset. With appropriate orders, we can sink every oil and natural gas tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz until NATO acquiesces and terminates these economic sanctions.”

“We need to think this all the way through,” Foreign Minister Marat Trutnev remarked. “NATO will not sit idly by while we sink merchant ships in the Persian Gulf. The Americans will assign Navy assets to escort these tankers, which may neutralize our effort.”

“I like the plan,” Egorov interjected, “but I concede you have a point, Marat. The Americans will undoubtedly respond, but this presents us with an even better opportunity.” Turning to Grigorenko, he asked, “With advanced planning, can we be prepared to defeat any American military attempt to thwart our plan?”

“We have sufficient assets, plus we also have an ally in the region — Iran. During our battle with the Americans in the Arabian Sea, Iran agreed to host Russian aircraft and missile batteries in their country, providing us with a critical advantage. Iranian assistance may again prove valuable. With your permission, I’ll see what I can arrange.”

“The Iranian alliance also provides us with an interesting option,” President Egorov said. “To use an American idiom, blockading the Strait of Hormuz can be the stick, and our relationship with Iran can be the carrot.”

Egorov was greeted by confused looks, so he explained. “We have the opportunity to create a crisis for the West that we are uniquely able to resolve. Iran desperately wants advanced high-speed gas centrifuges to speed up uranium enrichment for nuclear weapons. If Iran were to obtain these centrifuges, Russia would be uniquely positioned to influence Iran’s use of these centrifuges, or perhaps activate a fatal flaw in their hardware or software. Of course, we would do so only in return for appropriate concessions by America and its allies.”

His idea was met by several grins around the table.

To Grigorenko, the Russian president said, “During your discussion with the Iranians, offer these centrifuges to them as a token of our appreciation for their past — and future — assistance.”