5 MOSCOW, RUSSIA

Russian President Dmitry Egorov entered the Kremlin conference room, joining his advisors seated around the table. To the president’s right were newly appointed Defense Minister Andrei Grigorenko and Foreign Minister Marat Trutnev. On the other side of the table sat Egorov’s Chief of Staff Anton Kravtsov and Chief of the General Staff Nikolai Volkov, the senior officer in the Russian military.

Egorov had assembled his senior civilian and military advisors to hear their proposals. Upon his election, he had issued an edict to develop plans to fulfill the primary campaign promise he had made to the Russian people: to return Russian prestige and influence on the world stage to the levels of the Soviet Union. Egorov turned first to his new minister of defense.

“Proceed.”

Grigorenko began. “The plan we have developed will fulfill not one, but two of your campaign promises. Not only will the West learn to respect and fear Russia again, but we will solve the issue of an isolated Crimea by establishing Russian control of a land corridor connecting Crimea with mainland Russia.”

“You’re talking about invading Ukraine,” Egorov said.

“In a matter of speaking,” Grigorenko replied. “The Donbas region has already declared its independence from Ukraine, and its pro-Russian governments have confirmed that they will not object to their residents becoming Russian citizens. That leaves the Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, which connect the Donbas with Crimea. All told, we’re talking about transitioning only two of Ukraine’s twenty-four oblasts to Russia, plus the small region of the Donbas that remains in Ukrainian control.”

Grigorenko continued, “We prefer to think of this not as an invasion, but a realignment of territory to its rightful owner. History is on our side. Not only have European borders changed numerous times throughout history, but these oblasts were Russian territory in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. The argument can be made that these four oblasts, which have a significant ethnic Russian population and whose populations speak primarily Russian, belong in Russia, not Ukraine.”

Egorov canvased the other three men at the table. “Are you in consensus on this matter?”

“We are,” Foreign Minister Trutnev replied. “The limited scope of this territorial realignment is an attractive element. The problem with our previous invasion of Ukraine is that it was too ambitious, forging onward into NATO countries. Keeping this military conflict limited to only a small percentage of a non-NATO country, over territory that was once part of Russia, will deter NATO from intervening. With only Ukraine to combat, we can seize the desired territory and dig in until the Ukrainians grow weary of war.”

Anton Kravtsov, the president’s chief of staff, asked, “What about the sanctions the American secretary of defense threatened in his speech?”

President Egorov replied, “Let them try. The American president may think his threat of economic sanctions has us by the throat, but we have Western Europe by the balls. Their governments were foolish enough to let their economies become dependent on Russian oil and natural gas. The West will squeeze us only so hard, because we can squeeze harder. And when we squeeze, it’ll hurt a whole lot more.”

There were nods of agreement around the table.

“One last issue,” Egorov said. “The assassination of the American secretary of defense. I realize that I had asked you to send a message to the United States — that our new administration would not respond kindly to American intervention in Russian matters — and you were accommodating enough to implement this plan before I was inaugurated. However, the secretary of defense was killed moments after threatening sanctions against our country. I was hoping for something less obvious regarding our culpability.”

The four other men cast uneasy glances around the table until Egorov’s chief of staff responded. “The method was chosen by Josef Hippchenko,” Kravtsov replied, referring to the director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service — the successor to the First Chief Directorate of the KGB — “although we were aware and approved the plan. We thought that something obvious and direct would be the most effective method of dissuading the United States from meddling in our affairs.”

Egorov nodded. “I understand.”

The topic then turned back to the proposed invasion of Ukraine.

“What are your wishes?” Kravtsov asked.

Egorov contemplated the matter, then replied, “Begin preparations to seize control of the southeastern oblasts in Ukraine.”

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