Blackmail

11 WASHINGTON, D.C.

In her West Wing corner office, National Security Advisor Christine O’Connor scanned the documents on her desk, paying no attention to the rain droplets splattering against her triple-paned, bombproof windows. It had been an unusually harsh winter, but the snow had finally melted, giving way to a wet spring. The heavy rain and overcast skies darkened her mood this morning, but she did her best to remain focused on her task — preparing for her trip to Russia.

She was headed to Moscow for the next round of negotiations for the follow-on to New START, the treaty governing the two countries’ nuclear weapons. Russia made several concessions following the events at Ice Station Nautilus, but everything to this point was verbal. Christine was intent on ensuring the agreements became codified in the new treaty. Her eyes shifted between the printed document on her desk — the most recent draft of the new agreement — and handwritten comments in her notepad, recording the issues resolved since their last meeting.

There was a knock on her open door, and Christine looked up to find the president’s chief of staff, Kevin Hardison, in the doorway. “The president wants to see us.”

Grabbing her notepad, she joined Hardison for the short journey to the Oval Office, finding SecDef McVeigh seated on one of the two couches. As the president pushed back from his desk to join them, Hardison said, “SecState will be here soon.”

“Be seated,” the president said, and Hardison settled onto the couch beside McVeigh while Christine took a seat opposite them.

The president approached the three members of his staff and cabinet, taking a chair at one end of the two sofas. As they waited for SecState Dawn Cabral’s arrival, the president noted Christine’s position opposing the two men, and his thoughts turned to her unique situation, the only member of the opposite political party on his staff.

Three years ago, on a recommendation from Kevin Hardison, he had interviewed Christine for his national security advisor. She had the requisite background, serving as a congressional staffer specializing in weapons procurement, followed by a stint as assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict, along with several years as the director of nuclear defense policy. During her interview, he’d been surprised: Christine pulled no punches, explaining how his proposed policies would be disastrous for the United States. After being surrounded by staffers eager to please and agree with the president-elect, he found Christine’s candor a breath of fresh air. He hadn’t made the phone call until the next morning, but he’d made his decision before the interview was over.

Hardison no doubt regretted his recommendation; Christine was far more forceful now than when they worked together twenty years ago, when she was an impressionable young staffer. Now, Christine was quick to engage Hardison and the president whenever she disagreed with their proposals, which was exactly the way the president liked it. Although he didn’t always agree with Christine, her opinions and recommendations often distilled clarity into cloudy, contentious issues.

However, since her return from Ice Station Nautilus, she’d been uncharacteristically withdrawn, saying what needed to be said and nothing more, working long hours into the evening and on weekends. It wasn’t hard to realize what she was doing. She was staying busy to keep her mind off of what she’d done. Even Hardison had backed off, toning down his interactions with Christine. He’d become aware of the role she played in Captain Brackman’s death, and it was easy to discern the guilt she felt, deserved or not.

SecState Cabral’s knock on the Oval Office door pulled the president’s thoughts back to the pending meeting, and as Dawn settled onto the couch beside Christine, the president turned to McVeigh. “Go ahead, Bob.”

McVeigh replied, “We’ve detected some disconcerting Russian military activity over the last twenty-four hours. Their two largest fleets, the Northern and Pacific Fleets, have sortied to sea, taking every combatant including their aircraft carrier Kuznetsov. Russia’s Baltic and Black Sea Fleets haven’t deployed, but their level of readiness has been increased, as has that of Russia’s ground and air forces.

“In addition to the deployment of Russia’s two largest fleets, there have been several troop movements. Most are probably related to Russia’s upcoming Victory Day celebration in Moscow, commemorating the end of World War Two in Europe. The parade through Red Square typically features ten to twenty thousand troops and the latest Russian military hardware. However, three Russian units are heading northwest, toward Kaliningrad Oblast. Russia has previously threatened to move more troops and advanced missile systems into the oblast, and appears to be following through. A mechanized infantry division is en route, along with two missile brigades.”

After McVeigh fell silent, the president said, “Let’s talk about the Russian fleet deployments first. What are they up to?”

“Our best guess,” McVeigh replied, “is that their Northern Fleet is headed into the Mediterranean to provide additional firepower off the coast of Syria, although it’s curious as to why they would use their Navy instead of additional land-based missile batteries. As to where their Pacific Fleet is headed, we don’t have a clue yet. All we know right now is that they’re headed south, skirting around the Reagan strike group. We’ll learn more over the next few days.”

“Let’s think out of the box,” the president said. “Syria is one option. What else could Russia be up to?”

“Ukraine could be a focal point,” Christine answered, “although the Northern Fleet would have to transit into the Black Sea. They’d be in an excellent position, on Ukraine’s southern border. Russia could be coordinating its ground and naval forces, bringing as much firepower as possible to bear on the Donbass region of Ukraine.”

“How are things going in Donbass?” the president asked SecState Cabral, referring to the civil war between the Ukrainian government and separatist forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, collectively referred to as the Donbass region.

Dawn answered, “The conflict is currently at a stalemate, with separatist forces controlling most of Donbass. Although an official cease-fire is in effect, sporadic fighting continues along the line of engagement, and tensions remain high. Additionally, a separatist movement has gained momentum in Moldova, on Ukraine’s western border, with ethnic Russians requesting support from the Russian Federation. With unrest in Ukraine’s eastern provinces and now to the west, things are getting dicey for Ukraine.”

The president nodded. “What else could Russia’s Northern Fleet be up to?”

After no additional ideas were offered, the president said, “What about the Pacific?”

Christine answered, “Most of the conflict in the Pacific concerns ownership of natural resources, but I’m not aware of any claims Russia would try to enforce with their Pacific Fleet, unless they intend to join the fray in the South China Sea. But I don’t see that happening.”

Both SecDef and SecState agreed, and after no further ideas were presented regarding the purpose of Russia’s Pacific Fleet deployment, the president said to McVeigh, “Keep working the problem and let me know what you come up with. What about Russia’s ground unit movements?”

McVeigh answered, “It looks like they’re deploying the Second Guards Motor Rifle Division and two missile brigades into the Kaliningrad Oblast. One of the missile brigades is an offensive weapon system, employing the Iskander short-range ballistic missile, which can carry nuclear or conventional warheads. The second missile brigade employs the S-400 Triumf air defense system, which is Russia’s most advanced version, able to engage targets out to two hundred and forty miles. They’re deploying twenty-four battalions, which translates to over one thousand missiles. And that’s just what’s being added. Kaliningrad Oblast already has a significant air defense capability.

“By adding a Guards mechanized infantry division and the two missile brigades, Russia is turning Kaliningrad into a fortress from which they can neutralize NATO airpower in northeastern Europe, undermining a central pillar of NATO war planning. Additionally, their 448th Missile Brigade gives them a significant surface attack capability. The Baltic States are concerned, to put it mildly. It’s possible Lithuania and Poland will refuse to allow the additional Russian troops across their border into Kaliningrad Oblast, and if so, Russia will be incensed. We’re not sure how they’d respond.”

The president contemplated the information laid before him, then said, “As far as the Russian Navy goes, let’s keep an eye on both fleets, with forces close enough to engage quickly if necessary. What are our options?”

McVeigh answered, “Most of the Atlantic Fleet has been transferred to the Pacific, but we have five submarines we can send across the Atlantic to shadow Russia’s Northern Fleet. We also have a guided missile submarine near the Persian Gulf that we can send into the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal, where she can await the Northern Fleet’s arrival. As for Russia’s Pacific Fleet, we can have the Reagan strike group shadow it as it heads south, or assign that task to the Truman strike group, which is in transit from the Indian Ocean to replace Roosevelt off China’s coast.”

The president replied, “Let’s leave the Reagan strike group where it is. I don’t want to go from two strike groups off China’s coast to zero. Have the Truman strike group rendezvous with the Russian Pacific Fleet as soon as possible, but keep them at a reasonable distance. Between Russia and China, tension in the Western Pacific is high, and I don’t want any interactions that could escalate out of control.

“Regarding the Russian ground force redeployments,” the president said, “keep me informed as the situation develops.”

As the meeting drew to a close, the president said to Christine, “You’re heading to Russia on Monday, right?”

“Yes, Mr. President.”

After a moment of reflection, the president said, “Proceed with the trip.”