Blackmail

42 BRUSSELS, BELGIUM

Seven hours after departing Joint Base Andrews, with the early morning sun hidden behind overcast skies, Air Force One landed at Zaventem Airport, a few miles northeast of Brussels. The president was met on the tarmac by the U.S. ambassadors to Belgium and NATO, along with senior NATO staff and Belgian government representatives. After the requisite greetings, the president slipped into the back of the presidential car, nicknamed Cadillac One. A hybrid Cadillac built upon a truck frame and extensively modified with armored plating and bulletproof windows, Cadillac One had been transported to Brussels during the night with the rest of the president’s motorcade and backup vehicles.

Christine, Dawn, and McVeigh were escorted to their sedan, several cars behind the president’s, and the motorcade headed into Brussels. After penetrating the northeast perimeter of the city and turning down Boulevard Leopold III, the presidential motorcade arrived at a mammoth new complex, in front of which stood a twenty-three-foot-tall oxidized steel star, symbol of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

The entourage was led to a lobby outside the Alliance’s main conference room, where the leaders of NATO’s other twenty-seven countries were already gathered. Another round of introductions ensued, accompanied with a maddening amount of protocol dictating who greeted whom first and what order followed.

The clock struck the appointed hour and the conference room doors opened. The twenty-eight NATO leaders took their seats at a large round table with twenty-nine chairs: one for the leader of each NATO country, with the final chair for the secretary-general. The president inserted a wireless earpiece into his ear, listening to the English translator as the secretary-general, Johan Van der Bie, a well-respected diplomat from the Netherlands, gave a short introductory speech. An update on Russia’s dual invasions followed, with the information displayed on a dozen video screens mounted along the circumference of the conference room.

It was quiet in Lithuania, with Russia’s 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division and six additional motor rifle brigades, totaling forty thousand combat troops, digging in along the corridor they had occupied. The Russians seemed content with the sliver of Lithuania, while their goal in Ukraine was more ambitious. Ukraine’s Army of twenty-two ground combat units were engaged to the east by twenty-four Russian brigades, and early last night, Russia had launched two offensives on the Ukrainian Army’s flanks. Ten Russian brigades had broken through from the south, while twelve more brigades — six Belarusian mechanized infantry and six Russian Spetsnaz units — had penetrated Ukraine’s northern flank. Within the hour, Russian and Belarusian units would complete the encirclement of the Ukrainian Army.

Additionally, four Russian airborne divisions and another five independent brigades — forty-five thousand paratroopers — had been dropped along the Dnieper River. Russia had gained control of every bridge across the river, separating the eastern one-third of the country from the rest. The Ukrainian Army was cut off with no means of resupply and would surrender before NATO rapid response forces could assist.

Not that NATO could make a difference, with only forty thousand rapid responders opposed by 265,000 Russian and Belarusian troops. Russia would achieve a quick and decisive victory, occupying the eastern one-third of Ukraine. Whether Russia would stop at the Dnieper River or continue its assault into the rest of Ukraine was unclear.

Following the secretary-general’s update, there was a somber silence in the conference room until he recognized Lithuania’s president, ceding the floor to her. Dalia Grybauskaitė, the country’s first female president, shook off the bad news concerning Ukraine and began her prepared speech. Dalia’s plea for NATO intervention was passionate, ending with a reminder of NATO’s obligation under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. At the conclusion of her speech, she announced Lithuania had submitted a resolution authorizing the use of Alliance military force to expel Russia from Lithuania.

Following Dalia’s speech, the American president requested to speak. The secretary-general turned the floor over to the president, who pulled the microphone in front of him closer.

“Thank you, Mr. Secretary-General. Ladies and gentlemen, I’ll keep my remarks short. Russia’s invasion of Lithuania and Ukraine is only the beginning. Russia is using the blueprint created from their annexation of Crimea, expanding it to encompass eastern Ukraine. Annex part of a country, sow civil unrest within the adjacent provinces, then invade those countries to protect ethnic Russians. If NATO doesn’t take a stand, the three Baltic States will be next, and Poland will follow. Russia won’t stop until it has re-created a buffer zone of puppet states on its western border. War with Russia is inevitable. We can act now, or when the situation is more dire.”

The president glanced around the conference table before continuing. “The United States proposes a resolution authorizing military intervention to remove Russian forces from Ukraine.”

After the president finished his speech, French President François Loubet was the first to be recognized by the secretary-general. “Assisting Ukraine is out of the question,” Loubet said. “Ukraine is not a NATO member, and it is not our responsibility to come to its aid.”

“Then whose responsibility is it?” the American president asked. “As Russia occupies Ukraine, are we supposed to turn a blind eye because Ukraine isn’t a member of our club?”

“It’s the responsibility of the international community, not NATO’s. Each country must evaluate the situation and decide. But that should be done outside the framework of NATO.”

“Is not NATO a subset of the international community?”

“Yes, but intervening on Ukraine’s behalf isn’t our responsibility.”

The president said, “You stated it was the responsibility of the international community to decide, and also agreed NATO is a member of that community. I think we are in agreement. As a member of the international community, NATO can intercede on Ukraine’s behalf. The decision to be made is—will we?”

Loubet replied, “If we engage Russia militarily, the outcome is unclear. We aren’t talking about Kosovo or Iraq. We’re talking about Russia, with well-trained troops and sophisticated air defense systems in quantities that will neutralize NATO air superiority. Assaulting fortified Russian positions in Lithuania and Ukraine without air superiority will result in drastic casualties, if not outright defeat. We should avoid war and implement economic sanctions instead, crippling Russia until it vacates the occupied territories.”

Lithuania’s president interjected, “We imposed sanctions after Russia annexed Crimea. What has that achieved? Nothing. Which is exactly what new sanctions will accomplish.”

Dalia’s features hardened. “We wouldn’t have joined NATO, infuriating Moscow and placing a target on our back, were it not for NATO’s assurance that you would come to our assistance if required.”

The German chancellor, Emma Schmidt, joined the conversation. Ignoring Dalia’s remarks, she directed her question to the other country leaders. “Is NATO willing to go to war over an eighty-kilometer-wide strip of land?”

If the president of Lithuania was upset, the president of Latvia was apoplectic. “You are content to look the other way because you aren’t next on the menu. Once Russia’s war in Ukraine is over and they take note of NATO’s weakness — our unwillingness to intervene in a blatant invasion of a NATO country — they’ll be emboldened and take the rest of the Baltic States. Poland will be next, completing their effort to eliminate NATO from their flank and reestablish buffer states between Russia and Western Europe.”

Chancellor Schmidt responded, “Ceding a few square kilometers is vastly different than the occupation of an entire country. The borders of my country have been redrawn dozens of times, often under threat of occupation. How is the situation in Lithuania different?”

Lithuania’s president replied, “Your borders have been redrawn primarily because of your own failed aggression.”

The German chancellor’s face turned red, and as the council debate threatened to degenerate, the American president interjected, “Let’s get back to the issues. Russia has invaded Lithuania and Ukraine. The question we must answer is — Are we going to look the other way or assist?”

The Italian prime minister joined the discussion. “Russian troop deployment in Lithuania already equals NATO’s rapid response force. We’ll have to mobilize additional forces for this effort, both across the continent and from North America. This will take time, during which Russia will consolidate its position in Ukraine and redeploy additional troops to Lithuania. Considering the number of Russian troops we’ll be facing and Russia’s formidable air defense and land attack missile systems, the cost will be extremely high. We must ask ourselves, is war with Russia, which could escalate into the use of tactical nuclear weapons, worth a few square kilometers of sparsely populated countryside?”

The British prime minister interjected, “We are discussing a policy of appeasement, which will fail just as it did before World War Two. Have we not learned from our mistakes? In the words of George Santayana, ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.’” He pulled a sheet of paper from his suit pocket, which he unfolded on the table. “Let me read to you the words of Winston Churchill:

Looking up, the prime minister said, “I agree with the American president. War with Russia is inevitable. We can either act now, when we can control the time and location of the conflict, or wait and let Russia dictate those terms.”

Upon the conclusion of the prime minister’s comments, the discussions around the conference room table degraded into individual debates. After a few moments, an aide approached the secretary-general, whispering in his ear. When the aide finished speaking, Johan Van der Bie pounded his gavel on the strike plate.

The conversations faded and Van der Bie announced, “President Kalinin wishes to address our Alliance. If no one objects, I’ll put him on-screen.”

After no objections were voiced, the secretary-general nodded to his aide.

The displays lining the circumference of the conference room energized and President Kalinin appeared, sitting behind his desk with the Russian Federation flag displayed behind him. The president of the United States listened to the English translation from his earpiece as Kalinin began.

“Thank you for the opportunity to address your Alliance. I understand your apprehension over recent actions by my government, and I want to assuage your concerns. I will address Lithuania first, then Ukraine.

“Our desire in Lithuania is modest: a small strip of land only eighty kilometers wide, which will be incorporated into Kaliningrad Oblast. I regret using force to obtain this land, but Russia will no longer tolerate the constraints of foreign governments, preventing the transit of Russian citizens and military units between two regions of my country. Our annexation of this land is non-negotiable. However, I realize we cannot take this land without suitable compensation. We will begin formal discussions with Lithuania and craft a proposal acceptable to both countries.

“Ukraine might appear to be a more serious issue, but I assure you it is not. Once the safety of ethnic Russians can be ensured by local governments, all Russian troops will be withdrawn. The only contentious issue, perhaps, is that while the overbearing hand of the Ukrainian government is removed from eastern Ukraine, each oblast will be given the opportunity to choose its future. Referendums will be held, allowing each oblast to choose to remain part of Ukraine, become independent, or join Russia. My country will abide by the results, and you have my assurance that all Russian troops will then be withdrawn.

“I want to express, in the clearest terms, that Russia does not desire war with NATO. However, if you are entertaining the thought of intervening, I offer you this to consider. If attacked, Russia will terminate the delivery of all oil and natural gas to NATO members. Additionally, over the last week, Russian Spetsnaz units have attached explosives to every major oil and natural gas pipeline supplying Western Europe and the United States. Finally, as I speak, the Russian Northern and Pacific Fleets are taking station at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. If any NATO country attacks Russia or imposes economic sanctions, I will give the order to destroy these critical pipelines and sink all oil and natural gas tankers supplying Western Europe or the United States. Eighty percent of Western Europe’s natural resources will be cut off, and your economies will crumble.

“These are only precautionary measures, however. I wish no harm to your countries. I simply request you not interfere with the security actions I have taken in Lithuania and Ukraine.” The Russian president finished with, “Thank you for your time.”

Silence gripped the room as Kalinin’s image faded from the displays. After a long, tense moment, the meeting descended into chaos as country leaders discussed Kalinin’s remarks, with some of the conversations becoming heated.

The secretary-general gaveled the meeting to order, pounding the wooden strike plate repeatedly until silence returned. “I can see we won’t be ready to vote today,” he said. “Considering the new information President Kalinin provided, additional evaluation will be required. A time frame for consensus will be established for the proposals authorizing military force to liberate Lithuania and Ukraine from Russian forces. I am invoking the silence procedure. Any country that objects to either proposal must do so in writing by the stipulated date.”

With another thud of his gavel, Secretary-General Van der Bie adjourned the meeting.

As the president of the United States pushed back from the table, there were two things he was convinced of. The first was that under the given circumstances, NATO would not come to the assistance of Lithuania or Ukraine. The second was that the United States needed to modify the given circumstances, removing Russia’s energy choke hold on the West.

Striding into the lobby, he was joined by McVeigh, Dawn, and Christine. He turned to his subordinates. “Determine exactly what Russia has done, and devise a plan to destroy Kalinin’s choke hold.”