Blackmail

36 CASTEAU, BELGIUM

Five levels underground in a hardened bunker, General Andy Wheeler stood at the back of the NATO command center, examining the video screens mounted on the front wall. Located just north of Mons, SHAPE — Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe — was the headquarters of NATO’s Allied Command Operations. As the commander of NATO’s military force, General Wheeler was referred to as SACEUR, Supreme Allied Commander Europe.

The lighting in the command center was dim so personnel could more readily study the video screens, each displaying a different section of Europe. The maps were annotated with symbols of varying colors and designs, each representing a NATO, Ukrainian, or Russian combat unit — armor, mechanized infantry, artillery, and air defense, to name a few.

As the first day of Russia’s invasions of Lithuania and Ukraine drew to a close, the fighting thus far had been sporadic. Lithuania was quiet, with the country’s government wisely deciding it was futile to send its four thousand combat-ready troops against forty thousand Russians who had taken position along the fifty-mile-wide corridor on the country’s southern border.

In Ukraine, fighting had been limited to Ukrainian units engaging the lead Russian brigades, which seemed content with consolidating their early gains into the country while they awaited additional Russian units. As night fell across the continent, Russia thus far had amassed fourteen brigades inside Ukraine, controlling the key transportation hubs along the eastern border. Another ten units were still en route, bringing Russian forces invading Ukraine to twenty-four brigades: five tank and nineteen mechanized infantry units. Ukrainian units were likewise rushing to the front, with all twenty-two brigades already across the Dnieper River and into the eastern third of Ukraine. The war thus far had been mostly a race to the start line.

By daybreak, the battle lines would be clearly formed and Wheeler was certain Russia’s main offensive would begin. Whether Ukraine would withstand the assault long enough for NATO or a U.S.-led coalition to assist was unknown. A meeting of the North Atlantic Council, with all heads of state attending, had been scheduled for 8 a.m. the next morning, with most of the NATO heads of state already in Brussels and the last few on the way. If NATO was going to assist Ukraine, they needed to commit in the morning.

Wheeler examined a video screen at the front of the command center, displaying a map of Eastern Europe, studying the red symbols representing Russian combat units amassing in Lithuania and eastern Ukraine. He found it odd that Russia’s two premier forces were missing from the map. Russia had several brigades of Spetsnaz scattered throughout their military and intelligence organizations, along with numerous airborne units, the most well-trained and — equipped units in the Russian military aside from Spetsnaz. Airborne and Spetsnaz had been the first to be employed in recent Russian conflicts, including the wars in Chechnya and Georgia, but they were absent thus far from the current conflict.

Where the hell were they?