Blackmail

39 AIR FORCE ONE

Air Force One cruised thirty-six thousand feet above the Atlantic Ocean, headed east toward Brussels, escorted by a pair of F-22 Raptors periodically refueled in flight. Secretary of State Dawn Cabral and National Security Advisor Christine O’Connor entered the president’s office on the main deck of the aircraft and took their seats in a brown leather sofa opposite the president’s desk. Two days ago, Christine had watched events unfold on the televisions in her hotel, only a few hundred yards from the Kremlin. Her decision to depart Moscow early had proven wise, given Russia’s invasion of Lithuania and Ukraine not long thereafter.

Thus far, however, the Russians had made no attempts to detain American diplomats. On the contrary, it was business as usual in Moscow, with Russia downplaying its dual invasions, labeling its incursion into Ukraine a temporary security measure to ensure the safety of ethnic Russians until the time, determined by President Kalinin, the Ukrainian government instituted adequate safeguards. Lithuania was also billed as a limited military deployment protecting the rights of Russia and its citizens, responding to the hostility of NATO countries — Poland and Lithuania — abusing their power by preventing the transit of Russian citizens and military units between Russia proper and Kaliningrad Oblast.

The president had invited Dawn and Christine to his office on Air Force One to discuss Russia’s transgressions and the pending NATO meeting in Brussels, and he directed his first question to Dawn. “Help me understand Kalinin’s thought process. What does he want that’s worth risking war with NATO and international sanctions that could cripple Russia’s economy?”

“In my assessment,” Dawn began, “if Russia were a person, he or she would be diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder. They’ve been invaded by Western European countries three times, and Nazi Germany’s occupation was horrific, resulting in the death of twenty-seven million men and women and the destruction of hundreds of cities. In simple terms, Russians are paranoid, justly or not, and their paranoia increases each time one of their former allies joins NATO. They simply don’t trust the West, and many Russians believe it’s only a matter of time before NATO finds a reason to invade.

“Ukraine’s turn toward the West was pivotal in Russia’s approach to this issue. Not only did they feel betrayed by one of their closest allies, but most of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is homeported in Crimea. The annexation of Crimea was essential to ensure they retained access to their main Black Sea port, and their support of separatists in Donbass is an attempt to reestablish a buffer zone between Russia and the West, should Ukraine eventually become a NATO member.”

The president digested Dawn’s assessment, then turned the conversation to the impending NATO meeting. “Russia invaded Ukraine previously, annexing Crimea, and no one came to Ukraine’s assistance. How do we shape a different outcome this time?”

Dawn replied, “Russia’s annexation of Crimea was a unique situation. Its population is two-thirds ethnic Russian and the province was part of Russia for two hundred years before it was gifted to Ukraine by Nikita Khrushchev in 1954. From a Russian perspective, they simply took back what was rightfully theirs. Additionally, although Ukraine protested, they ceded the region without conflict. There was no war for NATO or the United States to intervene in.

“This time, however, there’s no historical justification for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or Lithuania. The Russians will argue they were provoked and had no alternative, but we all know the excuses are a sham. The obvious reason is that Kalinin wants to reestablish buffer states between Russia and Western Europe. Additionally, this time Russia invaded a NATO country and the Alliance will have to respond.”

Turning to Christine, the president asked, “Do you have anything to add?”

Christine answered, “I concur with Dawn’s assessment of Kalinin’s motives. However, I’d like to expound on NATO’s obligation. Lithuania isn’t as cut-and-dried as it appears. Article Five of the North Atlantic Treaty states that an armed attack on one or more members shall be considered an attack on all, and that all members will assist, taking actions deemed necessary. However, the treaty doesn’t spell out what assist means, nor the actions deemed necessary. The wording keeps NATO’s options open, with the possible responses ranging from nuclear war to a stern protest sent via postcard. Even though Lithuania has been invaded, there is no obligation to engage Russia militarily.

“We’ll also have to deal with NATO’s unique decision-making process. On its surface, NATO’s principle of requiring consensus on each resolution might seem a hindrance, in that one nation can torpedo a proposal. However, consensus doesn’t mean unanimous approval. All twenty-eight countries don’t have to vote yes in order for a resolution to be adopted. Instead, as long as no country votes no, consensus is achieved. Additionally, each country doesn’t have to vote; they can abstain if they want. The ability to abstain from a vote, called the silence procedure, allows governments to tacitly approve a NATO resolution without officially doing so, thereby not putting their vote on the record, which could be used against them by political opponents back home.

“Another issue to consider is that even if NATO authorizes the use of military force, member states aren’t bound to provide assets. So you really have two diplomatic battles to win, Mr. President. You have to convince the other twenty-seven members to either vote yes or abstain, then you’ll need to persuade as many members as possible to contribute forces.”

The president nodded his understanding, then turned back to Dawn. “How do you think this is going to shake out?”

Dawn answered, “If NATO authorizes the use of military force and Russia doesn’t back down, we’re talking about a full-scale continental war. Even if a country abstains from the vote and initially refuses to provide forces, if NATO begins to lose, they’ll be drawn into the conflict. It’s not likely NATO would lose given our combined forces, but the potential is one many countries fear. And if Russia gains the upper hand, they might not stop at Lithuania and Ukraine. Armed conflict with Russia is a can of worms many NATO members won’t want to open.”

“I understand their concern,” the president said. As he prepared to ask another question, there was a knock on his door. After the president acknowledged, McVeigh entered with a somber look on his face, taking a seat on the leather sofa beside the two women.

“I have bad news, Mr. President. Belarus has invaded Ukraine, launching an assault against the Ukrainian Army’s north flank, while Russia has begun a major assault from the south. Additionally, Russia’s airborne troops are being deployed along the Dnieper River, which runs north — south through the entire country, seizing the bridges. The initial invasion was bait, drawing Ukrainian forces toward its eastern border. It won’t be long before the entire Ukrainian Army is surrounded.

“The outcome in Ukraine was never in doubt. Without outside assistance, Russia will prevail. We were hoping Ukraine could hold out long enough for NATO or the United States to assist. That’s not going to happen. This war will be over in the next few days, and expelling Russia from Ukraine just became significantly harder. Instead of assisting Ukraine in a fluid battle, Russian units will be dug in along the Dnieper River.”

After absorbing the news, the president replied, “This at least provides clarity to the way forward, eliminating the urgency in committing NATO’s rapid response forces. Driving Russia from Lithuania and Ukraine is going to take a concerted, well-planned effort. It won’t be easy, but at least we’ll have time to build consensus and deploy the required forces to Europe.

“However, it’s imperative we not go it alone. We need a NATO resolution authorizing the use of military force against Russia, and we need as many NATO members as possible to contribute forces.” The president finished with, “We have our work cut out for us. Engage your counterparts in Brussels and do what you can to influence the outcome.”

The members of his staff and cabinet departed his office, and as the door closed, the president’s thoughts went to the conversations earlier that day, when he’d contacted most of NATO’s leadership. The prime minister of the United Kingdom was on board, as were the leaders of the Baltic States and Poland. Most of the remaining leaders were noncommittal, except for France, Italy, and Germany, who were leaning against military action. As the last few hours of the flight to Belgium drew to a close, the president knew he’d have a difficult task come morning.