Blackmail

35 WASHINGTON, D.C.

It was almost 10 p.m. when the president called it a day and ascended to the second floor of the White House, entering the presidential bedroom suite. The first lady was already in bed, with a book in her hands and her back propped up with three pillows. As she looked up to greet her husband, the phone on the nightstand rang, accompanied by the vibration of the cell phone in the president’s suit jacket. Pulling the phone from its pocket, he examined the caller: SecDef McVeigh.

“Yes, Bob. What is it?”

“Russia has invaded Ukraine and Lithuania. Troops started pouring across the borders a few minutes ago.”

The president absorbed the information and its implications, then replied, “Meet me in the Situation Room with the Joint Chiefs as soon as possible.”

“How about midnight?” McVeigh asked.

“See you then.”

As the president slid his cell phone back into his suit jacket, he met the concerned eyes of the first lady, who had placed her book on her lap. “What is it?” she asked.

As the clock struck midnight, the president entered the Situation Room in the basement of the West Wing, taking his seat at the head of the rectangular table. Members of his staff and cabinet were seated to his right and the Joint Chiefs to his left, with the Situation Room walls lined with additional military and civilian personnel. SecDef McVeigh, seated on the president’s right, began the brief.

“We’re still analyzing the data, Mr. President, bringing more satellites into play and querying local sources on the ground, but here’s what we know. At four thirty a.m. local time, a Russian mechanized infantry division invaded Lithuania, and six mechanized infantry brigades invaded Ukraine. Another twenty-four brigades from Russia’s Western, Southern, and Central Military Districts are racing toward Lithuania and Ukraine — six toward Lithuania and eighteen toward Ukraine.

“I’ll discuss Lithuania first, because Russia’s objective seems clearer. Satellite recon shows the Second Guards Motor Rifle Division taking defensive positions on the Polish border and along a parallel line fifty miles to the north.”

“They’re establishing a corridor into Kaliningrad Oblast?” the president asked. “What for?”

“Our best guess is that the Russians plan to permanently annex this region of Lithuania, removing the thorn in their side — having to request permission from a NATO country anytime they want to move military personnel or equipment between Kaliningrad Oblast and the rest of Russia. They’ll still have to go through Belarus, but Belarus is a staunch Russian ally.

“Ukraine, on the other hand, is murkier. Russia is launching a broad assault across the entire length of Ukraine’s eastern border. Whether the Russians intend to annex a portion of Ukraine or control the entire country is unclear. Once all twenty-four brigades reach Ukraine and Russia begins its push farther into the country, we’ll get a better idea of their intentions.

“Which gets me to an important and perhaps critical flaw in Russia’s plan. The invasion was sudden, without the usual buildup at the border before an invasion, which helps and hurts us. It hurts us because Russia got a head start on Ukraine and NATO. However, by not massing troops at the border ahead of time, their invasion is piecemeal, with only six brigades currently inside Ukraine. The lead units have seized the key transportation hubs just across the border and appear to be waiting for the remaining Russian units before beginning a coordinated push westward. This gives Ukraine a fighting chance; not to defeat Russia, but to hold out long enough for NATO to intercede should it choose to do so.

“This brings me to the crux of the issue,” McVeigh said. “Lithuania and Ukraine cannot repel Russia without NATO assistance. Lithuania has only a few thousand combat troops, barely more than a brigade, compared to eight Russian brigades they’ll be facing. Ukraine is in a much better position with twenty-two brigades, but their training and equipment is significantly inferior to Russia’s. Still, there’s hope they can hold off Russia long enough for NATO to provide assistance.”

“What do we have at our disposal?” the president asked.

McVeigh answered, “For immediate response, there’s NATO’s Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, deployable within twenty-four hours. However, it’s a single brigade of only five thousand troops. It’s a component of the NATO Response Force, with another thirty-five thousand troops, deployable in five to seven days. But even if NATO agrees to assist Ukraine, forty thousand troops won’t be enough. They’ll buy time, but forcing Russia from Ukraine will require the mobilization of additional NATO troops; it could take weeks or even months before the troops and equipment arrive in Ukraine.”

The president replied, “Let’s cross each bridge when we get there. The priority right now is to obtain NATO authorization to assist Lithuania and Ukraine. If NATO doesn’t agree to assist Ukraine, we’ll build a coalition of our own.”

“I take it your mind is already made up?” McVeigh asked. “We’re going to help Ukraine, with or without NATO?”

“Damn right,” the president replied. “There’s no way we can stand by and do nothing. We took the Neville Chamberlain approach when Russia annexed Crimea, choosing appeasement rather than war, and it emboldened Russia. We have to draw the line somewhere, and this is it.”

Turning to Dawn, the president asked his secretary of state, “How soon can we expect a NATO decision?”

Dawn replied, “An emergency meeting of the North Atlantic Council will occur within the hour, but there is zero chance the council representatives will have authorization to commit NATO to a full-blown war with Russia. That’s going to take a meeting with the heads of state from all twenty-eight nations. The best we can hope for is that the council will order the mobilization of all NATO assets today, and the heads of state will meet tomorrow. I’ll keep you informed as I learn more, but you should plan to travel to Brussels later today.”

The president nodded his understanding, then wrapped up the meeting. “We’ve got a lot of work ahead of us, on both the diplomatic and military fronts. We’ll sort out the details of our military response once the political landscape becomes clear.”