The Goal

93

other can begin... the subsequent event depends upon the ones prior to it. You follow?"

"Yeah, sure," I say. "But what's the big deal about that?" "The big deal occurs when dependent events are in combi- nation with another phenomenon called 'statistical fluctuations,'' he says. "Do you know what those are?"

I shrug. "Fluctuations in statistics, right?" "Let me put it this way," he says. "You know that some types of information can be determined precisely. For instance, if we need to know the seating capacity in this restaurant, we can de- termine it precisely by counting the number of chairs at each table."

He points around the room.

"But there are other kinds of information we cannot pre- cisely predict. Like how long it will take the waiter to bring us our check. Or how long it will take the chef to make an omelet. Or how many eggs the kitchen will need today. These types of infor- mation vary from one instance to the next. They are subject to statistical fluctuations."

"Yeah, but you can generally get an idea of what all those are going to be based on experience," I say.

"But only within a range. Last time, the waiter brought the check in five minutes and 42 seconds. The time before it only took two minutes. And today? Who knows? Could be three, four hours," he says, looking around. "Where the hell is he?"

"Yeah, but if the chef is doing a banquet and he knows how many people are coming and he knows they're all having om- elets, then he knows how many eggs he's going to need," I say. "Exactly?" asks Jonah. "Suppose he drops one on the floor?" "Okay, so he has a couple extra."

"Most of the factors critical to running your plant success- fully cannot be determined precisely ahead of time," he says.

The arm of the waiter comes between us as he puts the to- taled check on the table. I pull it to my side of the table.

"All right, I agree," I say. "But in the case of a worker doing the same job day in, day out, those fluctuations average out over a period of time. Frankly, I can't see what either one of those two phenomena have to do with anything." Jonah stands up, ready to leave. "I'm not talking about the one or the other alone," he says,