Dragon Fire

Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore

‘John, I would like you to regard this as a personal call,’ said Anthony Pincher.

‘Understood,’ said Singapore’s Prime Minister, John Chiu. ‘I have just been listening to you on the radio. It appears you have taken sides already.’

‘That’s what I wanted to discuss, particularly Burma.’

‘Yes. I couldn’t imagine that a tiny city state like Singapore would be consulted on the greater geopolitical issues. What about Myanmar?’ said Chiu, correcting Pincher on the official name of the country.

‘There is a feeling among members of the Five Power Defence Agreement that China’s use of Burma — or Myanmar — as a military staging post for invasion threatens the stability of South-East Asia.’

‘Which members? Britain? Australia and New Zealand?’

‘So far.’

‘You want to know my view?’

‘Yes.’

‘It’s bigger than Myanmar, Anthony, and you know it. That is what makes it so bloody complicated. I believe that ultimately China is trying to find a way of controlling the Straits of Malacca. The Dragon Strike campaign was merely a test of that. The Straits are one of the world’s most strategic choke points. Through them travels all the Middle East oil supplies for Japan and China, which in ten or twenty years’ time will become more and more reliant on oil imports. They have, therefore, a practical and geopolitical motivation for eyeing the Straits, and that combination has been the start of many wars. Should they ever succeed, they would also have access to the oil fields at the mouth of the Straits, and they would have to neutralize Singapore as we are by far the biggest port in the area.’

‘How far away are they from achieving their goal?’

‘The whole equation has changed in the past twenty-four hours, so it’s impossible to say. The Malacca project has been underway now for fifteen years. In 1992, the Central Military Commission laid out the principle of creating a blue-water fleet, with an aircraft carrier and submarines. Internal documents committed China to building “the world’s most powerful navy”. A year later another document was issued outlining a doctrine known as “high-sea defence”. It states that China could no longer accept the Indian Ocean as only an ocean of the Indians. I think the precise words were that the Indian Ocean was not India’s ocean. In 1996, the plan was given a boost, or jolt of reality if you like, when the Americans sent a carrier group to the Straits of Taiwan and the Chinese realized they had nothing at all which could touch it. That alone eradicated any argument within the Communist Party about not pushing ahead with naval modernization.

‘Now, you asked about Myanmar. China needs access at both sides of the Straits. To the east it can achieve it by setting up base on one of the Spratly Islands. To the west, it plans to use the two Cocos Islands and the sprawling Hanggyi Island naval base which are at either end of the Prepari Channel. Hanggyi Island is on the Irrawaddy delta coastline. Great and Little Cocos Islands are 240 kilometres to the south, and barely 15 kilometres from India’s North Andaman Island. If you look at the map these are key strategic positions for monitoring shipping in and out of the Malacca Straits. Since 1994, Myanmar has officially leased the Cocos Islands to China. On Great Cocos it has built a maritime reconnaissance and electronic intelligence installation station. One of its main jobs is to monitor the Indian missile test site at Balasore on the Orissa coast. The Great Cocos Station has a 50-metre antenna tower, radar sites and other facilities for signals and electronic intelligence gathering with about a hundred Chinese staff working there. They’ve also dredged the harbour — it used to be a bleak fishing village — so that it can now take the 4,200 tonne Ludu-class destroyer and anything smaller.

‘The Hanggyi Island base is far more sophisticated and has been built to take an aircraft carrier when China gets one, and strategic ICBM submarines. But it doesn’t stop there. China has modernized ports in Sittwe in Western Arakan state and Zedetkyi Kyun or St Matthew’s Island in the south-east, which directly threatens the northern entrance of the Malacca Straits. Basically, the Chinese military run the whole of that western coastline. It has equipped Myanmar with two Jianghu-class frigates with surface-to-surface missiles, Hainan-class fast-attack craft, other warships, crew to operate them and squadrons of fighter aircraft, the J-7 and A-5M ground-attack aircraft. It has rebuilt the Meitktila airbase, near Mandalay, and the smaller airfield at Lashio in the north-east. Both of those have been used in the operation against India. It has upgraded the road and rail system from its southern city of Kunming in Yunnan to a number of Myanmar ports — Akyab, Kyaukpyu and Mergui and others. The whole programme is run from the Chengdu Military Division, the same one which handles Tibet.

‘Myanmar, or Burma as you call it, is nothing less than a military colony of China. So you ask me if Singapore is worried. What do you think, John? I’m as worried as hell.’

‘I have an idea which might help,’ said Pincher softly, sensing the frustration in John Chiu’s voice.

‘I’m not sure I want to hear it.’

‘And it doesn’t go further than the two of us?’

‘Agreed.’

‘Under the authority of the Five Power Defence Agreement, would your amphibious rapid deployment group want to take part in an operation to neutralize Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean?’

‘You’re serious?’

‘Yes.’

‘The agreement doesn’t cover it.’

‘It does if the stability of Singapore and Malaysia is threatened. From what you’ve just told me, it appears that stability is very much under threat.’

John Chiu was silent for at least a minute. ‘If we have to choose a dominant regional power other than the United States, we would go for China over Japan, you know. We could never accept Japanese dominance after what they did during the Second World War.’

‘I’m not sure the choices are so stark.’

‘My answer, Anthony, is no. Singapore is a predominantly Chinese state. We will remain neutral in the international row. But you have my personal support and I suggest you try up the road in Malaysia. Their cultural Chinese links are far more tenuous than ours.’

‘Understood.’

‘But there is one other piece of intelligence we have picked up in the past three hours. It appears that President Lin Chung-ling of Taiwan is planning a formal declaration of independence.’

It took a few seconds for Anthony Pincher to change his focus to a completely different part of the world. He had thought he was fairly fluent in foreign affairs, but, as yet, he hadn’t factored Taiwan into any of his thinking. ‘Why on earth?’ he asked.

‘If he feels that China is sufficiently diverted by Tibet, India and Pakistan, he will sneak it into an interview scheduled with CNN within the next twenty-four hours.’