Dragon Fire

Prime Minister’s Office, Downing Street, London

The British Prime Minister, Anthony Pincher, was woken by his Private Secretary, slipped on a tracksuit and gym shoes and came down from his flat above 11 Downing Street. The Foreign Secretary, Christopher Baker, had just arrived. John Stopping and Sir Malcolm Parton had been in Downing Street for fifteen minutes. The emergency alert had come through from the Permanent Operations Headquarters in Northwood, north London, which acted as a nerve centre for Britain’s military activities around the world.

Next door to the Prime Minister’s office the powerful Press Secretary, Eileen Glenny, was at her computer, writing options for a statement to go out on the rolling news channels as soon as decisions had been made. She was determined to make sure her Prime Minister’s voice was heard before that of the American President, the Leader of the Opposition or any other European leader.

Across the road, in the basement of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, officials from the relevant departments were setting up a twenty-four-hour operational working area, known as the Emergency Room. The lead department was Asia — Pacific, with Martin Andrews as head of the South Asian Department taking immediate control. He drafted in experts on nuclear proliferation, counter terrorism, consular affairs, for British nationals at risk, and liaison colleagues from the Secret Service (MI5) and the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) and other involved regional departments, plus a representative from News Department.

The BBC, CNN and three Web sites were displayed on screens around the room and officials were already contacting embassies, collating the scant information and trying to ensure that the European Community would speak with one voice. But already the French were being obstructive: they had sold Mirage aircraft to both India and Pakistan. Germany, which had been involved in India’s nuclear-powered submarine technology, was noncommittal. The smaller countries such as Denmark and the Netherlands were worried that Britain would charge in with its militaristic hat, without consultation, in the wake of whatever the Americans decided to do.

Pincher opened up the Downing Street cabinet room and sat down. The Defence Secretary, David Guinness, was the last to arrive, having come straight from a briefing at the Ministry of Defence on the other side of Whitehall.

‘We have not yet detected any response by India,’ said Guinness.

‘Has anyone talked to Dixit?’ said Pincher.

‘He’s not answering his phone,’ said the Foreign Secretary.

‘The Indian offensive is continuing across the LoC in Kashmir,’ said Guinness. ‘Since Pakistan went nuclear, India has also pushed ahead into Sialkot, near Jammu in the north. It might have even fallen, and Indian armour has continued to shell the cantonment area of Lahore. Supply lines are being set up between the frontline and the Wagah border crossing.’

‘Meaning?’ said the Prime Minister.

‘Dixit must be gambling that Hamid Khan won’t carry out a second strike. He’s sacrificed his southern advance to make Pakistan a pariah state.’

Eileen Glenny came into the room without knocking, took a seat next to the Prime Minister, looked at her watch and glanced at the four television screens banked into a bookcase in the wall with BBC News 24, BBC World, Sky News and CNN showing simultaneously.

‘I have three statements, Prime Minister,’ she said. ‘One, we condemn Pakistan’s first use, et cetera. Two, we condemn violence on both sides, abhor Pakistan’s first use and call on restraint from India. Three, we point up that India is a democracy and Pakistan is a military dictatorship.’

Pincher tapped the bottom of his pen on the table and turned to the Defence Secretary: ‘I read somewhere that we had been in Bangladesh helping with relief efforts. What have we got there?’

‘A small task force, Prime Minister,’ said Guinness. ‘The Ocean is still off Cox’s Bazaar, after being diverted from exercises under the Five Power Defence Agreement with Singapore, Malaysia, Australia and New Zealand.’

‘Remind me about the Five Power Defence Agreement. Is it significant for this scenario?’

‘It was drawn up in the 1960s when we were in conflict with Indonesia. We have treaty obligations to Singapore and Malaysia, should they ask for our support. If either government feels threatened, they can call us in.’

‘Are the Australian and New Zealand navies with the Ocean?’

‘After the cyclone, the exercises switched to become a real-life military humanitarian operation. HMS Ocean is the command vessel. She has five hundred marines, most of whom are now ashore in the cyclone area, six Sea King helicopters and six Sea Harrier ground-attack aircraft. The Special Boat Squadron is also on board with one of its new VSVs.’

‘What do they do?’ said Pincher.

‘VSV means Very Slender Vessel. They go at sixty knots in all weather and have a range of seven hundred miles, although I’m not sure that it would be relevant to this meeting.’

‘It may be,’ said Pincher. ‘Go on.’

‘Prime Minister,’ interrupted Eileen Glenny, pointing up to the clock, ‘we have ten minutes max before the top of the hour and we need it to be you, not anyone else.’

Pincher nodded, but looked back over to the Defence Secretary: ‘If Drake had time to finish his game of bowls in Plymouth, I certainly have the time to know what we have in the Bay of Bengal.’

‘The frigate Grafton and destroyer Liverpool are there with support ships,’ said David Guinness, ‘together with two nuclear-powered attack submarines, the Triumph and the Talent. The Australians have their diesel-powered Collins-class submarine, the Sheean. Singapore has a submarine in the exercise — I don’t have the name. After the trouble at the end of Prime Minister Mahatir’s rule, the one Malaysian submarine doesn’t work. They have sent up a frigate, the Jebat. Singapore did have a corvette, the Vigilance, which didn’t go on to Chittagong. New Zealand has the frigate Te Kaha and a support ship.’

‘Foreign Secretary,’ said Pincher, ‘have you been in touch with our European allies?’

‘The French and Germans are noncommittal. Neither has made a statement yet,’ said Baker.

‘The Americans?’

‘President Hastings is on his way back to Washington from Camp David. I understand he has called a meeting of the Principals’ Committee.’

Pincher turned to his Private Secretary. ‘Get Hastings on the phone.’

‘President Gorbunov is just coming through from Moscow, sir,’ said the private secretary. ‘He says it’s urgent and is prepared to speak in English.’

‘Prime Minister, we must put out this statement,’ pressed Eileen Glenny.

‘Is there anything about China in there?’

‘The border skirmish with India. No. I think it’s too tangential.’

‘Like hell it is!’ said Pincher. He drummed his fingers on the table, thinking. ‘All right. Say this. The Defence Cabinet Committee is monitoring developments. A British task force now helping cyclone victims in the Bay of Bengal was immediately put on full alert. We are liaising with our European allies. The Prime Minister is speaking personally to the Presidents of the United States and Russia.’ Pincher paused.

Glenny prompted: ‘Whose side are we on?’

‘At the moment we’re neutral, Eileen. Tell them that, but also remind them that India is a democracy and both China and Pakistan are not. Our support has a natural channel through which to run.’

‘Is it wise to bring China in at this stage?’ said Baker hesitantly. ‘We don’t want to upset them unnecessarily.’

‘If you think Hamid Khan would have ordered a nuclear strike without first consulting China, Christopher, you should spend less time in your mistress’s bed and more time reading your brief. Yes, we bring in China right now, and that is what I will be telling Hastings and Gorbunov.’

Eileen Glenny left the room, writing on her clipboard as she went. Pincher picked up the telephone call from Gorbunov.

‘President Gorbunov, thank you so much for calling. If any power centre is the key to defusing this crisis, it surely is the Kremlin.’

‘Thank you, Anthony,’ said Gorbunov in English so fluent that it was difficult to tell him from a Bostonian. ‘I am calling because I am worried about the Americans. I have just spoken to the Ambassador here, Milton Ashdown, who was boasting about the Americans being the only power with responsibility to intervene. It could be disastrous. This is not the nineties. I feel strongly that India and Pakistan, even China if it comes to that, must be allowed to sort out their own grievances.’

‘Not if nuclear fallout is concerned.’

‘Of course. But we can stop that. China holds the military tap to Pakistan. We hold it to both India and China. I can turn it on and off at will. But if the United States blunders in, Russians will regard you in the West as the common enemy.’

‘I am talking to John Hastings in the next few minutes,’ said Pincher.

‘Tell him that I will guarantee best efforts to stop an Indian nuclear retaliation, if he can guarantee keeping America out of this dispute.’

‘The conventional war will continue.’

‘And may the best man win.’