Dragon Fire

General Headquarters, Rawalpindi, Pakistan

‘Baghla has fallen, sir,’ said Masood, relaying the message from the Military Operations Directorate. ‘Indian forces are advancing towards Rahimyar Khan. Flanking forces also advancing north.’

‘And the situation in the northern sector?’

‘We are holding the LoC well. In Siachen we have advanced. But Lahore is threatened. Indian forces are within ten kilometres of the city and are shelling the cantonment area. We have lost General Iqbal Faisal, I’m afraid, sir. The town of Wagah is completely under Indian control. Sialkot is expected to fall within the next forty-eight hours and India will then have control of the Shakargah bulge. We are managing lightning airstrikes, such as the one we carried out around Baghla, but it is difficult to hide the aircraft. Our forward bases at Sukkur, Bahawalpur, Nawabshah, Mirpur Khas—’

Hamid Khan stood up and held up his hand for Masood to stop. ‘All right, Captain. Are Dr Malik Khalid and Air Marshal Kalapur outside?’

Without answering, Masood opened the office door and waved in the missile scientist and the new head of the Pakistani air force from the war room outside. Dr Khalid entered with a bundle of diagrams and maps and sat down opposite Khan’s desk. Yasin Kalapur carried nothing and stood by the map near the door.

‘Is Sargodha still secure?’ Khan asked Kalapur.

‘The runway and airbase buildings are damaged. But the underground facilities are intact.’

Khalid leant forward in his chair. There was only one reason for him to be summoned. He was not a military man and was unable to discipline his curiosity. ‘Are you thinking of the northern or southern sector, General?’

‘The southern,’ replied Khan. ‘We strike once and once only.’

‘Then I suggest a mix of the Mirages and the Shaheen, fired from Sargodha. The target range will be between 450 and 500 kilometres. Each missile will carry a 500 kilogram warhead yielding a 20 kiloton explosion.’

Khan shook his head. ‘The missiles will be kept in reserve. Both the Shaheen and the Ghauri must be primed and ready for the second strike. But wait until darkness so that, God willing, they will escape satellite detection.’ He turned to Kalapur: ‘Yasin, are the Mirage 111s and the FC-1s still intact in Samungli and Pasni?’

‘Yes, sir. The Indians have confined their strikes to the border areas so far.’

‘Good. The F-16s?’

‘We have six at Samungli and four at Pasni.’

‘The Mirage 111s and F-16s will carry out the toss-bombing attack using the 500 kilogram warheads…’

Khalid nodded enthusiastically. ‘That will yield a 20 kiloton explosion per weapon.’

‘The FC-1 will give air support, particularly if the enemy deploy the SU-30.’

Kalapur nodded with approval. The FC-1 (Super 7) was Pakistan’s latest multi-role fighter. Its development had been delayed to equip it with weaponry and avionics which could take on the threat from India’s SU-30. The technology was derived from the American F-16 and the Russian MiG-29, particularly the Klomov RD-33 turbofan design. The aircraft was jointly made by the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) and China’s Chengdhu Aircraft Industrial Corporation, with much of the engine input coming from Russia’s Mikoyan OKB Design Bureau. Kalapur had flown one himself and declared it among the finest aircraft he had ever piloted. China would be keen to see the fighter tested in a real combat situation.

‘At night?’

‘Yes. Once the missiles have been prepared.’

‘Captain Masood, have we had confirmation from Beijing that we have complete access to their satellite imagery for the next twenty-four hours?’

‘The Ambassador has confirmed it, sir.’

‘What sort of strike would you want?’ asked Khalid.

‘Their doctrine is to destroy Pakistan if we strike first with nuclear weapons. But I don’t think Dixit would have the nerve to do that in response to a battlefield strike. Their first targets would be our nuclear facilities. We can assume that Sargodha and Multan would be destroyed and we must ensure that all personnel are in secure bunkers. We will have no more than eleven minutes to respond, probably less by the time we detect the launch.’

Khan stood up and moved towards the map where Kalapur was standing. ‘For defence purposes we should strike Chandipur here at 21°28′ N, 87°00′ E, at Hyderabad, 17°14′ N, 78°21′ E and Jullundur, 31°19′ N, 75°34′ E. These are all missile bases. We know that the Agni is in Hyderabad. If you think we have enough warheads, Dr Khalid, I would like to take out the nuclear research facility at Trombay at 19°02′ N, 72°56′ E. But that is more symbolic than strategic’

‘We shall see,’ said Khalid pensively. ‘And a third strike?’

‘It won’t come to that,’ said Khan. ‘But we will have to retain a credible deterrent for at least one large population centre.’

‘Hamid,’ said the Air Marshal, ‘during the Baghla operation, we would need to carry out air attacks on nuclear-capable Indian airbases. It would mean simultaneous sorties against the Jaguar and SU-30 squadrons at Ambala, the Jaguars at Gorakpur, the Mirages at Gwalior and the remaining SU-30s at Lohegoan. Those are the bases from which we would expect an airborne nuclear strike to take place. If we keep those occupied it lessens the risk of a false response.’

‘You’re saying, then, that we only react after the detection of a missile launch?’

‘Exactly. Indian aircraft will be in action anyway. We want to eliminate the confusion between conventional and nuclear.’

‘When would you be ready?’

‘Any time.’

‘Dr Khalid?’

‘If we want to prepare under cover of darkness.’

‘Captain Masood, ensure that I have Hari Dixit on the hotline the second the first toss-bomb strike takes place.’