The Oval Office, The White House, Washington, DC

Local time: 1830 Monday 7 May 2007
GMT: 2330 Monday 7 May 2007

‘They’ve hit the British frigate Grafton,’ said Tom Bloodworth. ‘Two torpedoes. She’s still afloat. More than twenty men dead.’

‘What with?’ said John Hastings.

Song-class submarine, sir. She was damaged by depth charges and surfaced. The captain of HMS Ocean had to issue orders forbidding the men to open fire on the crew, they were so angry.’

Song-class. Any significance?’

‘It carries cruise missiles which it can fire from underwater — although the Grafton was hit with torpedoes. It’s a diesel-electric vessel and we doubt the missiles have nuclear warheads. The Song is Chinese, broadly with eighties technology. The main point, of course, is that the Chinese brought it way out of the usual theatre and used it effectively.’

‘So how many more submarines do they have over there?’

‘We don’t know, John,’ said Tom Bloodworth. ‘We just have no idea.’

The President’s personal secretary interrupted on the intercom. ‘Joan Holden is on her way from State. She’s suggested you get Alvin Jebb in from across the river, and tune in the BBC World Service. I’m changing the channels for you now, sir.’

Hastings moved away from his desk to the sofas in the middle of the room, just as the BBC interrupted its own breaking news report about HMS Grafton to go to its interview with President Lin of Taiwan. Because of the short notice given for the interview, the correspondent was only the local BBC stringer in Taipei. Unknown to the viewers he had already been told he had a maximum on-air time of two minutes thirty seconds. The editor of the day even questioned going to Taiwan for an unquantifiable announcement, believing the viewers wouldn’t understand the link with the China — India conflict. At one stage, when it was thought the BBC would also have a live interview with the emotional mother of one of the naval officers killed on Grafton, the live segment from Taipei was to be cancelled. But a senior editor stepped in curtly. ‘Our job is to inform and report breaking news. It is not to make people weep. Stick with Taipei.’

BBC: President Lin, thank you for joining us. As time is short, could you firstly give us your reaction to the Chinese naval offensive in the Bay of Bengal? British and Indian naval ships have been sunk, and there are even unconfirmed reports that a Chinese nuclear-armed submarine is steaming towards the Indian coast.

Lin: Yes. In the past few hours, China has forced me to make the most difficult decision of both my personal and political life. As the democratically elected President of Taiwan, I feel that we can no longer go on pulling the diplomatic wool over all our eyes. Unification with China, either under the mainland’s system of dictatorship or our own system of democracy, will never happen in the foreseeable future. A compromise reunion, such as has been tried in Hong Kong, would not work and, more importantly, the Taiwanese people would not tolerate it. The brutal repression of Chinese citizens in Tibet, be they Tibetan or Han Chinese, the invasion of India, a democratic neighbouring power, the exploitation of Myanmar or Burma for military means, upsetting the stability of South-East Asia, and the threatening naval offensive in the Bay of Bengal — these are not actions which the Taiwanese people can support. We abhor them.

BBC: But surely you are powerless against China? All but the poorest Third World governments have diplomatic relations not with Taiwan, but with China.

Lin: We have always been powerless, but we have become a leading light for both how the developing world should modernize and how it should handle the transition to democracy. So what I am saying is this. I have called an emergency session of both houses of Congress. They are ratifying a bill which will create the independent nation of Taiwan. At noon today, there will be nationwide celebrations to mark our transition. As from noon today, Taiwan will be an independent nation.

BBC: But you are already as good as independent. You raise your own taxes, issue your own visas, have your own defence force. Why risk stability?

Lin: The time has come for the international community to recognize that we are a nation in our own right. The policy of constructive engagement with a one-party state has merely strengthened China’s ability to do what she is doing now. What we will celebrate at noon will be a beacon of political morality to the world.

Alvin Jebb and Joan Holden walked into the room together. ‘Switch to CNN,’ said Holden. ‘Reece Overhalt just called saying Jamie Song is live, in vision from Beijing.’

Jebb was on his mobile to the Pentagon finding out the location of American naval forces in the Pacific. His expression indicated the news wasn’t good. Bloodworth made a call from the President’s Oval Office desk, took notes and moved extra satellite imagery over the eastern coast of China to watch troop and aircraft movements.

‘Why didn’t Lin tell us?’ said Hastings.

‘It would have been suicide for him and us,’ said Holden, sitting down and pouring herself a coffee into the empty cup used by Bloodworth. ‘Independence is about not consulting other powers. If he had, we would be accused of giving Lin permission.’

‘Song’s coming on,’ said Bloodworth, finishing his call. Jebb shut down his mobile. The Oval Office fell quiet.

CNN: Within the past few minutes, Foreign Minister, Taiwan has announced its independence.

Song: Yes, I heard that, too, Mike. It’s unfortunate.

CNN: President Lin described his announcement as a beacon of political morality to the world.

Song: Yes, I heard that, too, and his rather naive attempts to slur my government. The fact is, Mike, that India and China are in conflict right now over very complex issues regarding the sovereignty of both nations. It is not an immature conflict. It is the type of conflict which historically nations have fought, which you fought in your Civil War, your war in Vietnam, your conflict with Iraq and in Europe throughout much of the last century. Anyone who claims that the global economy, the Internet and all that are going to stop nations going to war against each other is naive in the extreme.

CNN: But was it necessary to sink the Indian destroyer Bangalore and cripple the British frigate Grafton, with at least 450 people dead?

Song: Let me try and answer that not in the emotional way in which you put the question but in the pragmatic way of geopolitics. We had intelligence information which we are making public on the Internet right now that the Bombay was under orders to sink a Chinese-flagged tanker heading for China with oil from the Middle East. We could not allow that to happen. It would be an infringement of all international shipping laws. We also have intelligence that this man — and I understand you have agreed to float the pictures over this interview — this man, Michael Hall, is a member of the British Royal Marines. He was captured while on a sabotage mission at our naval base on Great Cocos Island. That Britain attempted to interfere in this conflict is abhorrent; that it decided to interfere on the side of India is a wound which will take a long time to heal. It was only right therefore that we defend our territory.

CNN: Is it not Myanmar or Burmese territory?

Song: We have a lease to use it as a military base. If we attacked American facilities at Okinawa, Japan, it would be seen as an attack on United States forces.

CNN: All right, Foreign Minister. It seems that everyone is digging themselves deeper into the big holes. Pakistan is already finished. The UN calls it a non-functioning nation. You and India seem to be digging at the same speed, but both downwards. Taiwan has scooped its first shovelful of earth. How is China now going to dig itself out?

Song: We need help, and that’s why I’m here, Mike. You’ve got a second video you’ve agreed to run. This was not shot by a Chinese television crew. We invited a neutral Russian crew to Lhasa. They picked their own interpreter and they were free to go anywhere.

Song fell silent and didn’t speak throughout the first minute of the video. It showed a gang of Tibetan youths, brandishing modern weapons, moving in against a row of Chinese shops. They sprayed the shop-fronts with automatic weapons fire, shattering the windows, which fell out onto the pavement. Then they lit petrol bombs and threw them inside. The shop-owners mostly lived upstairs with their families and they came stumbling out, coughing, clutching their children and helping their elderly relations. As they emerged from the smoke, they were cut down in a hail of gunfire, women, children, the old, so fierce and unrelenting that those behind turned back and fled into their burning homes. One of the Tibetans moved forward, executing the wounded with a single gunshot to the head, until he ran out of bullets. Then he took out a machete, yanked up the body of a young woman by her hair. The camera unashamedly went close up on her face, her eyes danced around, between consciousness and shock. Her hands flailed out and the Tibetan began hacking at her neck with the machete to decapitate her. The crowd cheered and the CNN presenter came back into vision, looking utterly stunned.

CNN: We apologize. We should have brought you out of that footage earlier, but these were raw pictures, just fed in over the Reuters satellite from Beijing. I think we get your point, Foreign Minister.

Song: I would like to make an appeal to your audience. Do not force China into war over Tibet. What we have just seen shows that there are no good or bad guys in a struggle like this. It is a horrible thing and both sides are capable of terrible atrocities. Yes, both the Chinese and the Tibetans. We cannot simply give Tibet away now. Thousands of Chinese who have settled there could be slaughtered. I won’t debate the rights and wrongs of that policy, because we all need to look forward. If you let us sort out the present crisis it will end soon. If you in the West interfere, there is bound to be a bloodbath even worse than the one you have just seen.

Hastings muted the television by remote. ‘That is about the most disgusting thing I have ever seen in my life,’ he said.

‘Fortunately, we don’t have treaty obligations in Tibet,’ said Holden. ‘But we do with Taiwan.’

Ennio Barber, the President’s personal adviser, had until now stayed quiet. ‘We have to get a statement out quickly,’ he said. ‘Or we’ll be finding ourselves pushed towards war by Congress.’

‘The Taiwan Relations Act is woolly about our obligation to use force to defend Taiwan,’ said Holden.

‘But the American people will expect it,’ said Barber.

‘Alvin, when can we get a carrier group into the area?’ Hastings asked his Defence Secretary.

‘The Harry S. Truman carrier group is just south of the Korean Straits heading out of the Sea of Japan. It’ll take at least a day to get anywhere near Taiwan.’

‘OK. Joan, I need to speak to Reece Overhalt in Beijing and get me Lin in Taiwan. Let’s see if this is one Asian crisis we can defuse in a few phone calls.’

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