Dragon Fire

The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC

‘If it’s armed with the JL-1 and Beijing wants to threaten a substantive population centre, then it would be heading towards the eastern coastline,’ said Alvin Jebb. ‘It was photographed four hours ago, after which it dived. If it is travelling at 20 knots, it would be eighty miles north-west of Great Cocos Island.’ Jebb put his finger on a map of the Indian Ocean spread out on the table and circled the spot. ‘This is known as the area of probability where the Xia would be. The British have sent down their Triumph nuclear-powered attack submarine and the Australian Collins-class Sheean, which is diesel-electric. Luckily, they were with the HMS Ocean task force, about 200 miles north of Great Cocos Island. The Triumph has a dive speed of 32 knots. The Sheean’s is only 20 knots. They are the best chance we have at the moment of finding the Xia. The Ronald Reagan carrier group is still heading north, but is only off the coast of southern India. It could be another two days before it gets close to the area of probability.’

‘What do the Indians have?’ asked John Hastings.

‘There is the Bombay, a Delhi-class destroyer inside the area of probability, which has begun searches, but its equipment is limited. The main eastern naval base is at Vishakhapatman. The Godavari-class frigate Brahmaputra left there two hours ago, together with the Shankul diesel-electric submarine. I might add that Indian submarine capability is not good.’

‘And our chances of finding it?’ said Hastings.

‘If we are talking about the shorter range JL-1 scenario, there is a possibility, but it’s remote. If the Xia is carrying the long-range JL-2 it could have gone anywhere from the Great Cocos and still be a threat to anywhere in India. The chances of finding it then are almost impossible. Or, if President Tao believes he has time on his hands, he could have sent the Xia, even with the JL-1, due south, with the view to getting it to double back on itself and confuse our search.’

‘If the Chinese know that we know they have the Xia in the Bay of Bengal,’ said Joan Holden, ‘shouldn’t we quit playing diplomatic cat and mouse, call President Tao and ask him what he’s playing at?’

Hastings shook his head. ‘A bad idea, I think. It would give him so much more leverage if I make the call. Let’s try and find it first. I can’t see any motive whatsoever for Tao to launch a nuclear strike against India. If he’s posturing, let him posture for a while.’