Dragon Fire

The Kremlin, Moscow, Russia

The news of the Indian launch reached President Gorbunov minutes after it got to the White House Situation Room. President Tao came through immediately and said in Russian: ‘I have given the command. It is sea-launched.’ He spoke in a manner which left Gorbunov certain as to what he meant. He also knew exactly the unstoppable process under which Tao had decided to operate. Once under the surface again, the commander of the Xia could receive no messages from the outside world. He would now be working side by side with his weapons engineer, preparing for the launch. Each man held separate keys and codes to verify each other’s actions. When the missile was fired, there would be no doubt that it had been on the instructions of a legitimate government and that the men on the trigger were acting professionally and under orders.

Gorbunov telephoned John Hastings. ‘I have intelligence that the Chinese have initiated a nuclear strike against India,’ he said.

Hastings was silent for a long time. ‘Are you in contact with President Tao?’

‘I am.’

‘Tell him to stop.’

‘It is submarine-launched from the Bay of Bengal. Short of finding the vessel and destroying it, no one can revert the order.’

‘Is Tao sane?’

‘Perfectly. He sees it as a legitimate act of war. In discussions with him, he compared it to the American atomic bombing of Japan — necessary to bring about a decisive end to the conflict.’

‘Then tell him that if his nuclear missile does strike India, the United States will obliterate his nuclear arsenal and his government with it. There won’t be a China left to surrender.’

It was now Gorbunov’s turn to use the silent pause. ‘That is the main reason for my call,’ he said eventually. ‘Russia does not want American interference in this conflict. We understand your treaty obligations over Taiwan and Japan and have stayed silent at your conventional cruise missile strike on Xiamen. But if you threaten China with nuclear retaliation, Russia will have no alternative but to threaten the United States with a counter-strike.’

The conversation in English was being carried around the situation room on a speaker. The bustle of activity ended and the room became quiet.

‘I’m not sure what you are saying, Vlad.’

‘This is a conflict between India and China. Both you and I have tried to broker a peace and have failed. China has decided to use the nuclear option. India, so far, has not. You have yet to discuss this with your colleagues, but I suspect you will end up deciding not to risk losing an American city to save an Indian one. However, to posture and threaten will be dangerous for world peace. Therefore, see it as my doing you a favour, John. Should you make a statement threatening China, Russian missiles will be launched not against United States territory — I’ll leave that to the Chinese — but against the Menwith Hill listening station in Britain and the Pine Gap listening station near Alice Springs in Australia. As well as damaging your intelligence-gathering capabilities, it will knock out the European Relay Ground Station for the space-based infrared theatre missile-defence system. That will eliminate your early warning mechanism for a missile strike from Russia. It will also split Western political resolve. The Australians and the British might think twice about your policies. Should you not then reconsider, we will be back on a Cold War footing of what we used to call Mutually Assured Destruction.’

‘Why, Vlad? Why on earth are you doing this?’

‘You’ve got to learn to balance power again, John. The Russian people feel you have walked all over them since the end of the Cold War. Vulnerable people who have lost their pride are dangerous. I am anticipating a way forward. If Tao is telling me the truth, India will decide her next actions, not Russia and not America.’