Dragon Fire

Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London

‘One shot fired, apparently,’ said John Stopping. ‘To persuade a recalcitrant minister not to stretch his luck. Otherwise a flawlessly exercised takeover.’

Top of the British news agenda of the day were the domestic issues of the single currency and Northern Ireland. The Foreign Office was concentrating on Christopher Baker’s upcoming weekend visit toWashington, but the headofAsia— Pacific, who was in fact travelling, asked for a special meeting on the Pakistani coup. John Stopping had been asked to chair the meeting in his place. Stopping was a former Ambassador to Pakistan, and was still chair of the JIC.

The BBC lunchtime radio news had led with the coup in Pakistan, but television gave it thirty seconds voiced over library pictures of the ousted Prime Minister on a previous visit to Britain. Hamid Khan had declared martial law. He banned all reporting and blocked the transmission of all pictures. Few people in Britain knew the Prime Minister, let alone the military strongman who had taken power, and the firing of a single warning shot did not arouse national outrage.

Nevertheless, Pakistan had muscled itself to the top of the Foreign Office agenda, and Stopping turned to Martin Andrews, the young head of the South Asian Department.

‘Obviously we’re watching things closely,’ said Andrews. ‘But a military takeover was not unexpected. Pakistan is regarded as a failed state and something had to give. We don’t expect it to change Pakistan’s foreign policy agenda, although clearly the Foreign Secretary will express concern when he gets to Washington.’

‘And who is Hamid Khan?’

‘An Armoured Corps officer, Chief of Army Staff and former Deputy Head of the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency, or the ISIA. We’re requesting more from Washington. He was one of the key figures involved in the CIA’s war in Afghanistan in the eighties. When that finished, he turned his attention to the insurgency in Kashmir and was largely responsible for filtering guerrillas across the LoC onto the Indian side in the early nineties. Three years ago he manoeuvred his way to get the job of Commander X Corps in Rawalpindi in charge of operations in Jammu and Kashmir and the Siachen Glacier. It put him at headquarters and in the most politically and militarily sensitive area, a perfect platform from which to get the top job.’

‘Is he a rabid fundamentalist?’ asked the head of the Hong Kong/China department.

‘No.’ Andrews shook his head. ‘He appears to be a pragmatist. He is not the hunting, shooting and fishing Sandhurst type. The key elements to bear in mind are that, given India’s steady movement away from secularism, it is inevitable there would be a lurch even further towards Islam. After all, Pakistan was created as an Islamic state. I sense that Khan has moved in to prevent the extreme sort of revolution which took place with the Taleban in Afghanistan.’

‘The comparison is a bit far-fetched, isn’t it?’ said the head of the Far East department.

‘That’s what they said about Iran. We ignored it and we lost a valued ally in the Islamic world.’ Andrews paused while the man in charge of the Far East accepted his point. ‘In the villages, there is a growing cry for Pakistan to produce its own Ayatollah Khomeini. I think the country has judged democracy as a failure.

‘The political class is thoroughly corrupt. Western-educated leaders such as Benazir Bhutto turned out to be disasters. Her successors simply came from different landowning oligarchies. The ruling elite takes what it can get and puts nothing back. Since Zia ul-Haq came to power in the late seventies there has been a creeping Islamization. Subsequent governments have used it to retain legitimacy. The political classes have clung to secularism because that is where their vested interests lie. But the centre of gravity has been shifting for some time. What has become clear is that the political class is incapable of bringing about change.’

‘You sound as if you rather admire Khan,’ said Stopping.

‘I don’t know him,’ said Andrews. ‘But I know where he is coming from. The country is living beyond its means. The religious parties are well organized — particularly in the cities, but they perform badly at the polls because the votes are controlled by the landlords. The army is the only professional institution of any size which works and Khan has stepped in before the conditions created another Iran. Of the two hundred and fifty-odd brigadiers in the Pakistan army, there are thirty known fundamentalists. Of about twenty-five lieutenant generals, there are five fundamentalists. We should be thankful that Khan is not among them.’

‘So does it mean that we should regard Khan as an OK thing for the time being,’ said Stopping, ‘as long as he keeps his revolver in his holster?’

‘On probation, perhaps.’

‘I suggest we let things settle over the weekend, then test the waters with the Foreign Secretary on Sunday on the way to Washington.’

Stopping shuffled his papers to get to the next item on the agenda. ‘Now. China,’ he said, turning to the head of the Far East department. ‘I understand we have some intelligence from within Zhongnanhai — from who else, but the Japanese.’