Dragon Fire

Military Headquarters, Western Hills, China

General Leung Liyin, the Chinese Defence Minister, was speaking in front of a wall map of the Taiwan Straits. President Tao was in the room, together with Tang Siju, and senior military officials. Jamie Song had not been asked to the briefing.

‘80302 Unit of the Second Artillery will launch the DF-15 missile strike from the Huangshan 52 Base here in Jiangxi province. The launch control and command HQ will be with the 815th Brigade at Leping. We have an inventory of 150 missiles for the operation which are now being moved to pre-surveyed launch sites in Jiangxi and Fujian provinces. Unit 80301 in Shenyang in Liaioning province, just here, is on a high alert should we have to strike Okinawa. We hope this will not be necessary. We would use the DF-21 missile and the launch site would be here in Tonghua, just north of the Korean border.’

‘Do you believe, comrade General, that we can defeat Taiwan, or merely use a missile strike as a means to get Lin to withdraw his declaration of independence?’

‘If we decided to settle the issue once and for all, we would have to take action against the enemy’s early warning radar sites, the SIGINT facilities, the command and control centres and power plants. If we did it swiftly in a single mortal blow [zhiming daji] we would need airstrikes and Special Forces operations. The first targets would be Taiwan’s twenty-five early warning radar stations, which we would hit with anti-radiation missiles launched from aircraft. We would send Special Forces into some sites, such as the Chuan Kang Airbase. We have built a replica of the base in Gansu and have trained extensively to prepare for such an assault. We would also have to shoot down Taiwan’s airborne early warning systems, which have taken off in the past hour. The enemy has eight key military airfields which we would have to take out; runways, barracks and control towers. Even if we succeed in shutting down the early warning apparatus, the command and control structure, the key missile sites and the airfields, we would only briefly have control of Taiwanese airspace. This first wave of operation would be fifteen minutes at best, but with both missile strikes and disruption of communication, we could complicate the enemy’s response. We would follow it with a much bigger second wave, with precision-guided bombs which we hope would neutralize both the air-defence system and the command structure. This could be achieved within forty-five minutes. With control of the skies, we could impose a no-fly zone around Taiwan — including American aircraft — and then impose a sea blockade around the island. I would not suggest a land invasion, because it would be drawn out and costly.’

‘Are you recommending it, comrade General?’ said Tao.

General Leung was silent for what seemed to be an interminable amount of time. Then he said: ‘No. It is the only way it can be done, but it is over-optimistic. We have two elements to consider. The first is that five years from now Taiwan will have a fully tested theatre missile-defence system. We are developing sophisticated jamming and chaff devices to confuse the enemy, but it would be far more difficult to conduct the plan I have just outlined. In normal circumstances, I would recommend implementing it now. But I am not convinced we have the resources to fight both in Taiwan and on our western flank with India in Arunachal Pradesh.’

‘Then what is your suggestion?’

Again Leung lapsed into silence. ‘Population centres,’ he finally said. ‘That would force America’s hand and bring Taiwan to its knees.’