Don't Worry, Be Grumpy

The Blind Leading the Blind

A famous monastery in the mountains of northern India, well known for its highly attained monks, had recently elected a new abbot who was also their spiritual leader. As it was getting close to winter, the young monks asked their new teacher whether it was going to be a cold season or a mild one.

The new abbot’s meditation was not yet developed enough to predict the weather. However, to be on the safe side and impress his disciples, he said that it was going to be a cold winter and that the monks should collect a lot of firewood.

A few days later, he had the idea to call the local weather station and ask the professor of meteorology, who happened to have the highest qualifications from Oxford University. “Professor,” asked the anonymous caller, “what type of winter can we expect this year?”

“Signs indicate it will be a cold winter,” said the professor.

Thus it was that, the following day, the abbot told his monks to collect even more firewood.

A week later, the abbot made another anonymous call to the weather station, “Does it still look like a cold winter, professor?”

“The signs are looking worse, sir,” replied the professor. “It looks like it will be a very cold winter.”

The next morning the abbot announced to his monks that they should collect every piece of wood that they could find because he foresaw that it was going to be one of the coldest winters ever seen in the mountains.

Thinking he might have gone too far, and that if he was wrong his reputation would be lost, the abbot called the head of the local weather station again. “Professor, are you absolutely certain that the signs are predicting a very cold winter?”

“Absolutely!” replied the professor. “In fact the signs are getting worse by the day. This looks like it will be an extremely cold winter indeed.”

“How can you be so sure?” asked the anonymous caller.

“Because,” answered the learned professor, “all the holy monks in our local monastery are collecting firewood like mad.”

The friend who sent me this story said that it is a metaphor for how the stock market works. He may be right!